ANALYSIS: Bush's vision, and the region, appear to be near collapse

San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 7/19/6 | Marc Sandalow

[SmithL]

Washington -- The Bush administration's notion that toppling Saddam Hussein would stabilize a turbulent region is among the casualties of this week's Middle East carnage.

The death toll in Lebanon and Israel, which exceeds 250 in the past week, is a grim reminder that the sectarian violence in Baghdad 500 miles to the east is but one of many hotspots in a region that has been plagued by violence for more than 1,000 years.

The oft-stated hope that a new Iraqi government would swiftly transform the region's fractured politics has been realized with unintended consequences: an emboldened Iran; the victory of Hamas in Palestinian elections; and Syria's departure from Lebanon. The familiar strain has been hatred between the Arabs and Israelis and a widely held assumption that the situation will grow worse before it improves.

"Unless and until you solve the Arab-Israel conflict, you are going to have instability in the region,'' said Steven Cook, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Some scholars view the situation from the opposite direction. Coit Blacker, director of Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford, believes that "there is no answer to the Arab-Israel conflict until the nature of politics within the region changes substantially.''

Yet there is wide agreement that more than three years after attacking Iraq, the administration's mission to build a democracy that would foster stability -- the most often cited reason to go to war after ridding Hussein of his weapons of mass destruction -- is a long way from being accomplished.

"Partly as a result of what's happening in Iraq, the whole region seems to be separating along sectarian lines,'' said Michael Sterner, former U.S. ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and an assistant secretary of state under President Jimmy Carter.

[Fighting Irish]

The fact that the SFComicle and the Carter Administration are squawking tells me that this is going exactly right.

....words right off my slow typing fingers!

[bandleader]

This guy is an IDIOT!"W" NEVER thought that toppling Saddam was THE PANACEA for peace and stabilization in The Middle East,it was just ONE step!!What Israel is doing now is ANOTHER step!!!The most important"Step"is to keep going FORWARD and resist ANY urge to"Cut and RUN"!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Jameison]

San Francisco Chronicle huh?
Last time they made any sense, JFK was still president.
'nuff said.

[mvpel]

What the author of this piece doesn't seem to realize is that in the wake of Saddam's overthrow, there are no longer Scud missiles raining down on Israeli cities as their citizens hunker down in gas-tight rooms. I'd call that an improvement.

[bandleader]

RIGHT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!As Ronaldus Magnus said:"Peace Through STRENGTH"!!!!!!!!!!

[subterfuge]

but one of many hotspots in a region that has been plagued by violence for more than 1,000 years.

Yep. Bush is supposed to "fix" this sh!t thats been going of for a millenia. Right. And Ted Kennedy just sat down for a hotdog and a milkshake.

[marron]

Only in San Francisco is the rout of Hezbollah seen as a defeat and a disaster.

It is nothing of the sort.

It is the natural outcome of the policies Bush put into action, and it is indeed what has to happen if there is ever to be "peace" in the middle east. We will have peace in the middle east when the psychopaths are dead and on the run.

[Pine Mtn. Maverick]

Bush has been right all along and so is Israel. Now it's time to show radical islam it can't take the heat off itself by starting bonfires. Ahmadinejad has rejected incentives package so it's time to cluster bomb his nuke facilities with the Israeli airforce to back us up!

Dems will scream bloody murder. Putin will shit his pants and China will be mute. But it's the best time to take care of Iran and it may stun Hezbolla long enough for Israel to run them over.

[Red Badger]

"If you want peace, prepare for war." Julius Caesar..........

[Orange1998]

The article is hogwash. We all know the Middle East is more dangerous today than 5 years ago, thats a fact. It takes time for Bush plan to work and we are starting to see results. The Israel war now is not connected to Bush.

[RobbyS]

Roiled by violence for a thousand years? What about four thousand? In any case, that reminds me that wehen the Arabs swept in from the desert and conquqred Palestine, they left it a wasteland. Not until the Zionists arrived in the late 19th Century did it bloom again.

[GSlob]

The violence will become lower by first becoming higher.[no, it is not from kerry, although put in intentionally kerryesque form]. After the sectarians and the tribals reciprocally exterminate one another, who would be left there to perpetrate violence?

[HawaiianGecko]

The Bush administration's notion that toppling Saddam Hussein would stabilize a turbulent region

I'd say the above statement is correct. Lebanon threw Syria out, but isn't strong enough to toss Hezbollah. Hezbollah miscalculates and starts a shooting war with Israel. When Israel is finished with them, Hezb. will be weak and the government of Lebanon will finally get control.

So let's see, Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon have democracies. The United States has troops in two of them. Jordan and Egypt have treaties with Israel and trade with them.  Yeah, it sounds like Bush's idea is working perfectly. The fact that some blood is being spilled along the way is just too bad.

But all that good news isn't going to stop all the spinning from the left.

 

[jerry639]

The article is just more of the same criticism of President Bush. How is he to solve the Arab-Israel conflict? The only resolution to the conflict that would be satisfactory to the Arabs is that we throw all of the citizens of Israel into the sea and turn over the territory to them.

President Bush was right to overthrow the leadership of Iraq. All the liberal politicians and media know he is right and they can't accept it. They offer nothing in the way of a plan..only criticism. As I have stated many times, if President Bush is alive each morning he is wrong. Their Hatred runs that deep.

[Loyal Buckeye]

The fact that Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt want Hezbollah crushed didn't seem to make it into this analysis.

Exactly. Bush's policies/plan, along with the actions being taken by Israel, are rapidly putting the noose around Syria and Iran's necks. He has manuevered the situation where it is clear that the terrorists are linked to Iran and/or Syria; with that, we now have states to retaliate against if terrorists act on our soil.

[edzo4]

dividing into sectarian lines???

sounds like a fancy way of saying either you are with us or against us in the war on terror

[Candor7]

The oft-stated hope that a new Iraqi government would swiftly transform the region's fractured politics.........................................

The transformation is in process, and this liberal socialist weenie author,Marc Sandalow, wants to call a work in progress a "done deal."

Sandlow just doesn't like the fact that the self evident truths set forth in our nations Declaration of Independence are working success in the middle east.

Upsetting the liberall socialist Utopian apple cart is a price that Sandlow doesn't want to pay in his most valuable currency.

Keep your wallet handy Sandlow, you will pay until the job is done, and in the currency all Freepers want: the defeat of America's liberal socialist Utopian agenda, for the sake of freedom at home and in the middle east.

Watch these socialists go raving bonkers as Bush's agenda continues to succeed.

[litehaus]

"Not until the Zionists arrived in the late 19th Century did it bloom again."

You fixed the bike I threw away, and NOW I WANT IT BACK!

[samadams2000]

I would agree Bush has not waged this war agressively or swiftly. He's surrounded by too many lawyers and Rinos. The Chronicle by the way should be out of business in about a year.

[Southack]

"The dems have put all their eggs in the losing basket."

You are correct. Dems can't admit, or permit the nation to learn, that things are going well.

In Iraq, U.S. fatalities are down to 1 good American lost per day to combat...less than drunk driving. Kurds, Shi'ia, and Sunnis have maintained a democratic unity government. There's no "civil war" there.

The latest talking point for the left-wing news media is "100 civilians killed per day in Iraq," but what they don't mention, or mention only in passing, is that (ostensibly because Al Qaeda wears no uniform) the 72 Al Qaeda killed by the U.S., coalition, and Iraqi forces on average each day are lumped in with the 28 Iraqi civilians killed by sectarian violence to arrive at the magic "100 killed per day" figure.

Hussein's in jail. Zarqawi's dead, too. And the *trend* shows declining U.S. fatalities each month for the past 3 months.

Which is to say, Iraq is going very well.

Likewise, the U.S. economy is going very well. Unemployment is down at or below 4.6% (full employment, really). Productivity, home ownership, and household wealth are at all-time record highs, too.

But that won't stop the biased news media from pretending that Israel's smashing of Hezbollah is somehow bad or "the end of Bush's vision" or whatever nonsense the mental parapalegics can manage to drool onto their keypads.

"Oh no, not more vioooolence from the Joooooos! Clearly Bushitler has failed global peace and harmony. Elect flip-flop-Kerry, quicklllllly!"

...rolls eyes...

They convince no one but their own kind with such intellectually dishonest rubbish.