Iran will not use nukes, even if it has them.
The purpose of having them is like the USSR - state power is used to assist proxy states/groups and nukes keep oponents from widening their response to direct military strikes on you. So Iran thinks that having nukes will allow it to be even more adventurous with its support of terrorists.
However, it will be forced over time to cease that pretense, because Israel and the U.S. will simply increase their response with conventional weapons against Iran's clients, until its clients are no longer threats. Iran will be left to chose resignation that it cannot revolutionize the world on its Islamic political agenda, or its madmen will make a suicidally stupid act.
The Iranian leaders are insane but not suicidal.
They know that once they let the genie out, they have no control over the results (our response), but they do know that one result will be that shortly after their first nuke hits, their nation ceases to exist.
That said - another long war, with worldwide proxies and allies is upon us again.
I hope you're not a betting man.
"The Iranian leaders are insane but not suicidal."
Yea, muslim extremists have never been known to commit suicide.
According to their Mahdi Wannabe religion, he has to set fire to Babylon and Israel to bring out the Mahdi. If the Mahdi don't come out of the well, then he will assume that he is the Mahdi. Typical counter revolutionary movement taken over by a totalitarian thug in the end. They all succumb to that eventually. One should assume that this 'fearless' leader in Iran has a safe haven a little better then Saddam's foxhole.
"The Iranian leaders are insane but not suicidal. "
You sure about that. I think they are crazy enough to be stupid!
***The Iranian leaders are insane but not suicidal.***
Uh...
YES THEY ARE...
Read thier writings, and thier religion. The return of the 12th Mousekateer is what this is all about...
We are dealing with another Hitler only this time he's an Islamo-fascist who wants to bring forth the 12th Imam or some such nonsense. The madman lives to destroy Israel, and yet the world would be surprised by the use of nuclear weapons by Iran even though it's nut-case leader has telegraphed his message of destroying Israel 12 times.
I made this point a while back but it bears repeating here.
Making an Iranian/Terrorist nuclear comparison with the MAD scenario of the Cold War is invalid. Dont kid yourself for a minute thinking they relate.
During the Cold War it was a standoff between the Soviet Union and the United States. Both had a large enough nuclear arsenal to completely annihilate the other. This created a situation called MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction)
MAD worked during the cold war because both sides were concerned about the endgame. In the endgame not only was it necessary for the opposing country to have lost, but there was a necessity for the winning country to survive.
This does not apply in this case. These terrorist, and yes I refer to Iran as a terrorist country, do not have a specific concern with the endgame. Their survival is not a necessary component of victory, only the destruction of their enemies.
That is the problem when the endgame is governed by religious fanaticism. There is existence and reward after life in their mentality of Jihad. Their own personal survival of the conflict does not matter to them. Dont think for a minute that they wont use a nuke if they have the means to deliver it.
That would be true if the leadership had a reasonable grasp on reality. But they don't. They are true believers, YabaDabaDoo, the PM, believes that the 12th Iman can be coaxed out by Armegedon, so he's trying to start it. A nutjob with nukes is not the same as a criminal thug with them.
1) Iran now has nukes (5 of them planned - cant confirm number completed - but 3 or 4)
2) Methods to deliver the nukes are not finalized (there have been problems - weight? - my source cant confirm) but an alternative plan is being worked on and almost finalized.
3) Iran will be using them again Israel.
4) The strike will come soon.
Equipment for the enrichment was supplied by Dr. Khan and Pakistan - as well as small amounts of highly enriched uranium - - I'll be posting more details as soon as I can confirm them all - things are moving very fast atm.
There is a lot to story - you can start reading here
Even though I think you're right, and I'vre seen that line of reasoning on Intel sites...what we do not know is how they would react if they really believed they were about to lose power.
I still would like to know what Bush meant when he said, "...stop this sh$t...It's over."
What's over? And what ever is "over" could it be the reason for all the over the top rhetoric out of Amadhinutjob?