Posted on 07/16/2006 4:02:29 PM PDT by wagglebee
What will Cuba be like when Fidel Castro is gone? Washington and Cuba have - no surprise - startlingly different versions of a post-Castro Cuba, and many dissidents on the island complain they will be caught in the middle.
In Washington's scenario, presented this week by a presidential commission, a democratic Cuba will endorse multiparty elections and free markets and become a new ally to be rebuilt with American assistance after nearly five decades of communism.
But Castro, who apparently enjoys good health and turns 80 on Aug. 13, has been fortifying the ruling Communist Party to ensure the status quo long after his death. He plans to hand over power to his 75-year-old brother Raul, the first vice president of Cuba's Council of State.
The key aim of the 93-page report by the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba is to halt that succession, using diplomacy to enlist Cuban citizens and other countries to demand a new government after Fidel dies.
It recommends that the United States spend $80 million over two years to encourage that change, saying Cubans could appeal to the United States for food, water and other aid. It envisions U.S. technicians rebuilding schools, highways, bridges, financial specialists designing a new tax system and the United States helping Cuba join the International Monetary Fund.
"The greatest guarantor of genuine stability in Cuba is the rapid restoration of sovereignty to the Cuban people through free and fair, multiparty elections," says the report that was released July 10.
Other experts say the commission is being unrealistic.
"We need a reality check here," said Wayne Smith, America's top diplomat to Havana from 1979 to 1982. "Anyone who knows Cuba knows the Cuban people aren't going to rise up against a successor regime."
Dissidents in Cuba say they appreciate the gesture, but fear it will backfire and lead to more arrests. In 2003, 75 dissidents were arrested and accused of being "mercenaries" receiving U.S. aid - a charge the activists denied.
Opposition member Manuel Cuesta Morua called the U.S. offer a "poisonous embrace."
"Those are 80 million arguments for the Cuban government to make it seem all Cuban dissidents are financed by the United States," he said.
The dissident community has not fully recovered from the 2003 arrests, and no Cuban opposition leader has emerged with widespread support.
Cuba also lacks the powerful nongovernment institutions that existed in communist-era Poland, where the Solidarity movement, organized around a strong Roman Catholic church and labor unions, managed to topple the Communist leadership.
The U.S. report has been well-received in Miami, where U.S. Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a Cuban-born Republican, said it shows "the strong commitment of President Bush to help the Cuban people free themselves from the shackles of their brutal oppressor."
But Smith calls the U.S. report "pure pie-in-the-sky."
"The reality will end up being somewhere between those two visions, and probably closer to the Cuban succession plan _ with the addition of popular pressure for economic reforms," said Smith, who heads the Cuba program at the Center for International Policy, a foreign policy institute in Washington.
Long a taboo topic, Cuba's planned succession has been discussed more openly in recent months with Raul Castro, the longtime defense minister, appearing frequently in state media to insist the party will continue its dominant role.
If Raul Castro does succeed his brother, the United States will likely be sidelined while other countries interact with Cuba's new leadership, said Philip Peters of the Lexington Institute, a think tank outside Washington.
That's because the United States in 1996 tightened its Cuba sanctions and prohibited aid to Cuba until multiparty elections are planned, political prisoners are released, and both Castro brothers are out of power.
Peters said the report only hardens Washington's position on Cuba.
"The report leaves no doubt that the administration will not support in Cuba the kind of change it applauds in China - economic liberalization without significant political change," Peters wrote this week.
Cuban parliament speaker Ricardo Alarcon said he believes the report's classified section contains plans to attack the island or assassinate its leaders.
"We have the right to expect the worst," said Alarcon, referring to the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion and earlier U.S. assassination attempts against Fidel Castro.
Great link. I Furled it for later perusal.
.
Thank you for your kindness TAC.
Political & Spiritual CLARITY here on Freerepublic.com,
...no matter the personal costs to oneself, is worth...
...EVERYTHING..?
.
Communism ultimately will fail, as it has every other place it's been tried. The Cubans that take over will have to be very careful to keep the mob out. The presence of the U S mob was one of the major reasons of the Cuban Revolution. We in the U S are going to have to make sure that the Sopranos don't go back.
There will be a lot of money to be made by U S developers. The beaches in Cuba are pristine; the hotels/restaurants catering to foreigners are outstanding; the weather is ideal. It's going to be a gold mine. Havana has suffered from 60 years of neglect and it will take all of Home Depot's, Lowe's, Sears, and any number of other U S firms to put that place back together again. If nothing else, I'd like to have the sandblasting contract. Sherwin-Williams would stand to grab a large portion of the business there. Electricians, plumbers and carpenters will be required to bring their infrastructure back into the XXth Century. It's going to be exciting.
Most Americans think that Holy Mother Church has been oppressed since 1959. Not so. Churches have been open and free from harassment from the government since at least 1993, when I got there. The Catholic Church is very active there.
Viva Cuba Libre!!!!
From your keyboard to God's ears, FRiend!
.
Actually,
...who could forget how the CLINTONS sent a Free Little ELIAN back to a corner of CASTRO's Communist Cuba,
...by first bringing a Communist Cell onto the grounds of Andrews Air Force Base to start re-indoctrinating him..?
The same Andrews Air Force Base that is home to Air Force One and received JFK's body back from Dallas on November 22, 1963.
NUTS..!!!
.
Well, it looks like Castro ain't dead yet!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1669880/posts
That's just too bad......
Unless he has a double, but I would imagine we would know that.
"JFK had an agreement with the Soviet Union not to ever invade Cuba. Missile crisis agreement terms, I believe."
I believe that this treaty is still in effect between us and the Russians.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.