For Democrats, Wave Is Building

Washington Post ^ | 7/16/06 | Thomas E. Mann

[Coop]

There's probably no way congressional Republicans can lose this fall, no matter how unpopular President Bush is or how unhappy the voters are with the war in Iraq. That's the prevailing view in Washington today.

But it's wrong.

If history is any guide, we're heading into a major political storm. And that means we could see a national tide in November that will sweep the Democrats back into the majority.

Virtually every public opinion measure points to a Category 4 or 5 hurricane gathering...

But many analysts have noted the absence of strategic behavior on the part of the Democrats, who have failed to recruit good candidates and have allowed the Republicans to maintain a fundraising advantage...

Over the past year, the Cook Political Report has increased the number of Republican seats it considers highly vulnerable from two to 10, and those it considers somewhat vulnerable from 16 to 25. Eighteen others are potentially vulnerable. That's a total of 53 GOP seats at risk, double the number of a year ago. During the same period, the number of competitive Democratic seats declined from 14 to 10;, while the total number of Democratic seats at risk remained at 21...

[FRONTLINER]

"The fact that the Democratic wave is being called now leads me to believe that it's going to crest before election day."


Let's hope so. We need to do as we did in '04, and get out the vote like we're running 10 points behind.

I have a feeling that gas prices are going to be at the forefront come election day, if they don't fall . The gas prices are slowing many sectors of the economy down and raising the price of goods as well .
The Dims " solutions " will resonate with the naive electorate . So let's hope the Dims put their foot in their mouths once again and peak to soon .

[rockrr]

I will always attempt to abide by the rules set out, no matter how emotional the subject.

And that would make you the only one ;'}

(Welcome to FR!)

[Valin]

John Murtha Chairman House Armed Forces Committee

And if that doesn't scare you I don't know what will.

[supercat]

First you beat the other team. Then you work on improving your own.

Yeah, but a key to beating the other team is to eliminate their members from your own roster. A politician who votes with us on non-close votes, but against us on close votes may as well vote against us on everything for all the difference it makes.

[UCANSEE2]

Thanks for 'hosting' the article.

I think we should continue pressing on all sides, against the opposing party, when and where-ever they appear, because they will take advantage of a vacuum.

[shield]

This is nothing more than what we heard before Bush was re-elected. Nothing has changed much and the choices are about the same. So Republicans will win and hold on to congress...that can be counted on...

[hosepipe]

When conservatives act like democrats there will be hell to pay.. unless the only difference is merely on the surface.. and in some ways that seems to be the case..

Confused conservatives is a bad thing.. democrats start out confused or they wouldn't be democrats..

[epow]

But we need to start purging the RINOs, who are ruining the country, and support the real conservatives, who are trying to save it.

You're right is some respects, but what you are forgetting is that control of Congress doesn't depend on the ideological purity or impurity of the party members. A RINO congresscritter who gives the Republicans a majority of seats, and hence control of the House, is much more valuable to the conservative agenda than his or her RINO status would seem to indicate.

That could be even more important in the Senate where control of committees by even one seat could easily mean the difference between seating a true conservative Bush appointee on the USSC or settling for another half full glass like Justice Kennedy.

[misterrob]

I am just acknowledging reality here. Having the democrats take over the Senate and House would be disastrous for the country. History also shows that the sitting President's party loses seats in midterms. That enough of the conservative base is pissed off at the party is troubling.

[EDINVA]

Coop, does anyone have any Cook Reports from the Summer of '94 ? Had he forecast the GOP sweeps that Fall?

I admire Charlie's work, but all he or any of them can do is study/analyze polls that don't mean diddly till the last days of most campaigns.

[misterrob]

You have too many people in the party who are not backing the President with all that they have got for us to win against Islamic terror.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

Now you're talking kook stuff.

[Uncle Vlad]

I was a Libertarian, too, for a while. They have some good ideas, but they'd rather be right than elected.

[WOSG]

HEre's another loopy comment of the author's:

"The public's harsh evaluation of the president's performance on the economy is unlikely to be reversed by Election Day. "

HUH?

5% growth is not ENOUGH?!?! New jobs, etc.?!?!

What do the Democrats have to offer - oh, right, cut oil prices by taxing oil suppliers more. Brilliant... They sense victory because, well, irresepective of their utter irresponsibility on the GWOT and other issues, they are *entitled to it*. The real Govt has been in exile while an illegitimate regime of hillbilly bible-thumpin hicks has been in charge...



http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/?entry=21579_NYT_Shows_Real_Agenda#comments

"The owners and editorial staff of the NYTimes sees itself as the information bureau for a government in exile."

[Steve Van Doorn]

I learned during these wars that Libertarians omit facts to justify their argument.

I now understand why the Ann Rand organization looked down on the Libertarian party.

[staytrue]

Thomas E. Mann is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and co-author with Norman J. Ornstein of

"The Broken Branch: How Congress Is Failing America and How to Get It Back on Track" (Oxford University Press).

so why are talking about the rants of this lunatic author ?

[staytrue]

Sorry, but you guys are nitwits for trying to take down the rinos who are not the problem.

We have a real chance for replacing sarbanes with steele, rendell with swann, taking down cantwell, stabenow, granholm and replacing dayton, and taking down murtha.

Why you want to blabber on about rinos is beyond me.

[goldstategop]

We've heard it before: 1994 in reverse. The Democrats and the Drive By Media are so excited. Their return to power is already in the bag. Republicans are histoire. And Bush is toast. But they haven't counted a single cast vote yet. Its all wishful thinking about what they hope might be true as opposed to what is true: there is no big Democratic Wave out there.

(Go Israel Go! Slap 'em down Hezbullies.)

[staytrue]

you guys have no idea what you are talking about regarding oil speculators

anyone can be an oil speculator, even you.

If you are so sure oil is over valued all you have to do is plunk down 7k and short an oil contract and watch the money roll in if you are right.

If the hedge funds are long oil and they are wrong, the market will kick their rears.

[napscoordinator]

That picture is so funny. I would never cry over an election. Good God what is wrong with that women. She needs to get a life that is for sure. Dang if every race went to democrats I would still not cry. That is so silly. She is the wackiest women I believe I have seen.