Posted on 07/14/2006 12:48:38 AM PDT by FairOpinion
Republicans are in jeopardy of losing their grip on Congress in November. With less than four months to the midterm elections, the latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that Americans by an almost 3-to-1 margin hold the GOP-controlled Congress in low regard and profess a desire to see Democrats wrest control after a dozen years of Republican rule.
Further complicating the GOP outlook to turn things around is a solid percentage of liberals, moderates and even conservatives who say they'll vote Democratic.
The election ultimately will be decided in 435 House districts and 33 Senate contests.
But a Democratic takeover of either the House or Senate would be disastrous for the president, leaving both his agenda for the last two years in office and the chairmanship of investigative committees in the hands of the opposition party. To seize control of Congress, the Democrats must displace 15 Republicans from House seats and six Republicans from the Senate.
The AP-Ipsos survey asked 789 registered voters if the election for the House were held today, would they vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in their district. Democrats were favored 51 percent to 40 percent.
Not surprisingly, 81 percent of self-described liberals said they would vote for the Democrat. Among moderates, though, 56 percent backed a Democrat in their district and almost a quarter of conservatives _ 24 percent _ said they will vote Democratic.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
ANYONE VOTING FOR A DEMOCRAT HAS NO RIGHT TO CALL THEMSELVES A CONSERVATIVE. NO REAL CONSERVATIVE WOULD EVER VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT.
yea and thats what they said before the 2004 elections
Another recent poll:
Democrats Favored On Most Issues; Bush Approval Down (FOX poll)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1665167/posts
What is the matter with people?!
I'd vote for Zell Miller if he were still in politics.
Maybe more people have gone dumb?
If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
And yet another poll:
Gallup: Voters like Congress' Dems over GOP
http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/news_theswamp/2006/07/gallup_voters_l.html
A new Gallup poll indicates that registered voters prefer congressional Democrats over Republicans by 10 percentage points.
Gallup says 51 percent of voters said they favored the Democratic candidate in their district versus 41 percent who said they supported the Republican candidate.
Among the factors contributing to the Democratic lead, Gallup says, is the Democratic advantage among independent voters who make up about a third of the electorate. About 46 percent of independents told Gallup they preferred the Democrat versus 30 percent who backed the Republican.
So, who all is lying to the pollsters?
How can a survey with a total of less then two voters per congressional district--most of which are secured to one party or another, so not relevant--get an accurate demographic?
If you include only districts that are "in play", you are likely to strongly skew to one party or another depending on which races you consider "in play".
Alternatively, if you include districts not "in play", then the results are not representative.
Just remember .. our own "Dr Deb" has already outed the dem polsters. They have been using 11-14% more dems in their polls than they use repubs. Also .. they use the same amount of independents as they do dems - which is skewed all out of proportion - and all of them side with the dems - also out of proportion.
I don't believe this poll and nobody on FR should!
The poll queried 789 people.
If "almost a 1/4 of Conservatives polled, would vote for a damned Dem, that means that out of 789 people, ONLY 100 WERE CONSERVATIVES! And I bet that they were also the ONLY Republicans in the poll, as well.
Soooooooooooooo, besides being the tiniest of samplings, this poll was HEAVILY weighted/biased.
If the AP took a poll of the angels in Heaven, they'd find someway to make the Devil come out looking rosy.
I believe God has about a two-thirds majority among the Angels. Satan is favored by only one-third.
But out of the people who claimed to be conservatives, a quarter of them said they would vote for a Democrat.
I absolutely do not believe this ****.
Never underestimate the gullibility of the American public.
It seems three recent polls, including Fox Poll are getting similar results.
I would like to disbelieve this poll, except I see people right here on FR saying things like it's actually good for the GOP to lose, i.e. have the Dems win, people are advocating that conservatives stay home "to teach Republicans a lesson" and even when some of us point out that such an attitude would result in the Dems winning, they say that is actually good. I find this highly disturbing.
It is foolish to believe all the polls, and foolish to believe none of them. The trick is figuring out what polling firms to trust, and what kind of poll method to trust.
DITTO!!!!!!!!!!!!
Its an old one, but its true...
There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Pollsters are true and accurate, but only within the parameters of what they have been asked to poll. Its the interpretation of those results that causes the problems. 798 is far too small a poll to be statistically significant. Theres no indication of who was polled, where from, what time, what day, what questions were asked, what order...all of which can alter things. Then there's this assertion that a quarter of all "conservatives" would vote democrat - how are they defining "conservative"? I am sure folk on this board would have very definite opinions - but certainly it is a definition that is interpretable.
I would reccomend the fine book "How to lie with statistics" by Darrel Huff. In modern society it is absolutely essential that everyone knows how to talk back to a statistic.
In the meantime...fear not! The only poll which really matters is the election.
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