Senate Picture Changes A Bit (2006 elections)

The Cook Political Report ^ | July 1, 2006 | Charlie Cook

[Clintonfatigued]

The fight for control of the House is getting more ink than the battle for control of the Senate, but several recent shifts in individual Senate races merit attention.

All year, talk about the Democrats' chances of taking the Senate has focused on the five most endangered Republican incumbents.

They are, roughly in order of vulnerability, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Conrad Burns of Montana, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Mike DeWine of Ohio, and Jim Talent of Missouri. The discussions then turn to the second tier of vulnerable Republicans, speculating whether Democrats can perhaps pick up a sixth seat (the most likely prospect is the open seat in Tennessee that Majority Leader Bill Frist is vacating) and whether they will be able to hold on to all of their own Senate seats. The open seat in Minnesota and Maria Cantwell's seat in Washington state are the Democrats' biggest vulnerabilities.

[cardinal4]

Talent wont lose in Missouri..

[Clintonfatigued]

This is an interesting outlook, and one which is consistant with the others. IMHO, it should have gave more attention to the second-tier races.

[Clintonfatigued]

That one is a key race.

[golfisnr1]

Recent Zogby poll has Talent up 5 points.

[TWohlford]

I think that the Michigan seat (Stabenow) is a bit closer than "theoretically competitive".

Stabenow looks awful on camera, worse in person, and has proven unable to even be an effictive Dem shill (let alone have a good thought on her own).

She has effective constituency services (Spence Abraham, are you listening?) but otherwise is counting on the coat tails of the Dem party.

[new yorker 77]

I think Charlie Cook is an idiot.

I also think Larry Sabato is an idiot.

Still, I enjoyed reading Cook's take. Now at least I know what is not going to happen.

[Pikachu_Dad]

So what can we do to take any of these seats?


Listed as SOLID DEM

Nelson - FL
Bingaman - NM
Conrad - ND
Feinstein - CA
Carper - DE
Lieberman - CT
Akaka - HI
Clinton - NY
Kohl - WI

Listed as LIKELY DEM

Byrd - WV
Jeffords - VT

Listed as LEAN DEM

Stabenow - MI
Nelson - NE
Menendez - NJ
Cantwell - WA
Sarbanes - MD

Listed as TOSS UP

Dayton - MN

[azcap]

I can't take seriously any analyst who thinks the Democrats have a chance of defeating Jon Kyl in Arizona. Kyl leads his Rat opponent by 14 points in the most liberal poll and 20+ in the more reliable ones. If a 20 point lead is what the Rats consider vulnerable I say Batter Up!

[cardinal4]

Talent's opponent isnt popular here. Jim Talent is one of the better Senators we have, and despite Kansas City and Saint Louis County, this is a solid Red State...

[okie01]

...but otherwise is counting on the coat tails of the Dem party.

Plus massive vote fraud in Detroit...

But that's the same thing, isn't it?

[centurion316]

I think Charlie Cook is an idiot.

Most informed political observers would disagree with you. I am certainly not one of the above, but I disagree with you as well. Charlie always hedges his bets at this stage of the game, watch out when it gets closer to election day. BTW, Charlie's sister agrees with you, most days.

[Pikachu_Dad]

Isn't Lieberman's seat in trouble?

The Dem's are actively trying to unsteat him.

I mean the guy came right out and threatened to run as an independent if he didn't win his primary!

If they remain split or L. runs against him - the R's have a chance.

[Txsleuth]

You are right...it is good to read his--because his opinion isn't sprinkled with outrageous hyperbole.

I saw Martin Frost on Fox News today...and I think it was like 35 seats he predicted the Dems would pick up in the House...and he said they would win the Senate.

Frost is a bitter, bitter loser. He first lost to Nancy Pelosi of all people for Minority Leader..and then lost his House seat due to a better candidate, even though he blames Delay for redistricting.

[Pikachu_Dad]

Any chance for Byrd's seat in WV?

"Byrd's lead widens in poll

Sep 14, 2005
By: Charleston Daily Mail

A new poll shows Sen. Robert Byrd pulling away from Rep. Shelley Moore Capito in a hypothetical matchup for the Senate seat now held by Byrd.

According to a recent poll conducted by Charleston-based RMS Strategies, about 55 percent of the state's registered voters would support Byrd, D-W.Va., if the two were to run for Byrd's U.S. Senate seat next year.

Only 39 percent said they would support Capito, R-W.Va, who has not yet decided whether to enter the race.

The two had nearly equal support in a poll taken in June, but the state's senior senator has been running television and Internet ads and achieved a political success in recent weeks that appear to have given him some momentum."

If they were tied earlier and she has not yet begun to campaign - she has a shot.

[Txsleuth]

I think ALL of the dems are counting on the Republicans eating their own.

[AdvisorB]

Sabato and Cook are DumRats. They like to hide behind a false mask of "impartiality" but they are very biased liberals. Cook was a RAT activist at one time, at least Sabato could fool people with his "academic" airs. He's a phoney also.

We are on the rebound, and we will pick up seats in the US Senate. We are going to win in NJ because of the RAT government shutdown, and the corzine broken campaign promises. Corzine pulled a Florio, and it came back to haunt the DumRats. It will come back to haunt them again in November.

[italianquaker]

Why did he forget to mention that nj will be going blue to red

[Republican Wildcat]

If they were tied earlier and she has not yet begun to campaign - she has a shot.

Capito isn't even running.

[Republican Wildcat]

The Rs have no chance win the CT seat. Lieberman will win, either as a Dem or as an independent, but he will probably stay as a Dem in the Senate after winning as an independent.