Posted on 07/06/2006 11:19:53 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
BEIJING - When North Korea fired a volley of missiles this week, it not only defied warnings from longtime enemies the United States and Japan, it also spurned the pleas of its chief benefactor — China.
For a country that is North Korea's stalwart diplomatic protector and economic lifeline, providing the North with trade, lots of aid and all of its oil, China seemingly has little pull with its neighbor and ally of 55 years.
"China sends oil, grain and other assistance to North Korea. But aid isn't a weapon if it's not used as a weapon," said Zhang Liangui, a North Korea watcher at China's Central Party School, a training academy for the communist elite. "And China doesn't contemplate using aid as a weapon, so its influence is very poor."
As U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill returns to the region Friday and another furious round of regional diplomacy unfolds, pressure is building on China to keep North Korea from destabilizing a region vital to the interests of the United States and its allies.
State Department spokesman Sean McCormack on Wednesday urged China "to use that leverage, to apply it and encourage a change of behavior in the North Korean regime."
Beijing, however, is resisting, saying that while it condemns the missile tests, it prefers to cajole rather than threaten or punish Pyongyang. In the U.N. Security Council, China has called for more diplomacy and so far refused to endorse a threat of sanctions backed by Japan, Britain and the United States.
Behind Beijing's reluctance is a hard-nosed calculation of Chinese interests. Though relations between the Korean War allies have been strained for decades, China feels less threatened by North Korea's behavior than Tokyo and Washington do.
Beijing prefers a weak and unpredictable North Korea to the likely alternatives: an implosion that would send North Koreans streaming into China or a unified Korea under a South Korea allied to the U.S.
Still, Pyongyang's actions put Beijing in a bind between those interests and a pressing need to allay concerns in the U.S. and elsewhere about how an economically strong and rising China will use its new power.
"This is an important test of Chinese diplomacy and whether Beijing is ready to play a responsible role even when its comrade in arms makes bad choices," said Bonnie Glaser, a China specialist at the Center for International and Strategic Studies in Washington.
After the terror attacks on New York and Washington in 2001, China rallied to the U.S. side, deciding that playing a low-key role would allow it to focus on its primary goal: economic development. But as its economic might increased, China embraced governments in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America at odds with Washington, raising concerns about Chinese intentions.
A failure by China to restrain North Korea and get Pyongyang to resume negotiations over its nuclear program could solidify suspicions in the Bush administration.
"It's a headache for China's leaders," said Jin Canrong, an international affairs expert at Renmin University in Beijing. "Usually, like on the Iran issue, China can hide behind Russia. But this time on North Korea, there's no escape."
In recent days when North Korea placed a long-range Taepodong-2 rocket on a launching platform, China pleaded with Pyongyang to back down. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao publicly urged North Korea to desist. Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei summoned North Korea's ambassador to Beijing last Friday.
In the wake of the missile launchings, China said Thursday that Wu will be heading to Pyongyang with a high-level delegation to celebrate the 45th anniversary of a friendship treaty between the countries.
Before he goes, Wu sits down with his U.S. counterpart, Hill, on Friday to discuss options for getting North Korea to cease missile tests and resume the nuclear negotiations.
But with China having removed its trade, aid and other economic ties as leverage, Beijing has few options other than diplomacy for dealing with Pyongyang, Chinese analysts said.
"China's unhappy, but what can it do? Fight?" said Cui Yingjiu, a retired professor at Peking University and a former classmate of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's in the 1960s. "If South Korea and China join Japan and the United States, North Korea would collapse. What good would that be for China? No good at all."
China's patience will wear thin........
I would like to think that is true, but I suspect that they are playing good cop/bad cop. On the other hand, if they are playing good cop/bad cop, then they are making a collosal strategic mistake.
It doesn't take a Chinese rocket scientist to figure out that those missiles can go north as well as east.........
How so?
99% of the food consumed in NK is consumed by the Army, the police and friends of Dim Il Sung.
We appease the communists endlessly with this carrot dangled in front of us.
It ain't going to happen and since when do we think despotic communist regimes will do our work for us?
Truth in advertising alert: China says it has little interest in leverage on North.
China wants us to be as preoccupied with NK and Iran as possible so they can do their own thing.
China can't control a half starved, non-nuclear, 5th world, rundown dump like North Korea? Yeah right!
China's patience will wear thin........
Or bad cop / raving psychotic cop.
There is little point in negotiating with Pyonyang. Why after all would you waste time talking to a sock puppet?
But if China insists it has no influence, then maybe they won't mind if we take out the next missile on the launch pad, along with the entire facility. If they try for a long range launch, if they sail one over Japan, that should be the immediate response.
Wrong,wrong,*wrong*! China is motivated by money and a desire to weaken..diplomatically and militarily...the Paper Tiger (us).
Everything they do in this matter is predicated on those two facts.They know that *they* have nothing to fear from NK.
As the article makes clear, North Korea continues to function at all as a nation / government only because train loads of aid come in daily from China. China has life-or-death influence over the murderous dictatorship of Kim Jong-Il. To say otherwise is absolute and obvious dishonesty.
I spit on the AP for its obvious and unprofessional bias in political reporting.
P.S. Interested in a Freeper in Congress? Keep in touch with me.
Congressman Billybob
Oh, malarky. Does China really think we'll believe this?
Is China telling the little piglet to act insane? He's doing it very well.......
This is probably reasonably true.
A nutcase with nukes, and they have nothing to fear?...........Even if we responded with a tactical nuke, the cloud would fallout over CHINA............
The strategic mistake is this: When this is all over, China is going to be surrounded by nations that have nuclear missiles. Japan and Taiwan, for example.
I can't believe they want that result. The only rational explanations are either that they really don't have control (which is difficult to believe), or they've miscalculated and don't realize that they are exposing themselves to increased risk.
With who?
You actually believe they give two sh*ts about the furor NK is creating?! Hell... I bet behind half-closed doors... they're laughing their collective a$$es off. Ditto for the ruskies. I laugh at all the western 'experts' who say that China... for their own interests... has to rein them in.
BS!
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