Lopez Obrador leading Calderon in Mexican Vote Recount [Update: Calderon now leading]

www.easybourse.com ^ | 05 July 2006 | Tom Barkley

[chilepepper]

MEXICO CITY -(Dow Jones)- Mexico's leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador holds a small lead in the final vote count being conducted by the Federal Electoral Institute, or IFE, based on results from 35.2% of polling stations, The Associated Press reported Wednesday afternoon.

Lopez Obrador, of the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, is ahead with 37.1%, while conservative Felipe Calderon of the ruling National Action Party, or PAN, has 34.3% of the vote, according to IFE.

A quick tally the night of Sunday's vote proved too close for IFE to call a winner, so election officials Wednesday started a full review of tallies compiled by polling stations. The process could take several days to complete.

In a preliminary vote count, Calderon led by a little over 400,000 votes, about 1 percentage point, with 98.5% of the country's more than 130,000 balloting places reporting.

Lopez Obrador's campaign has rejected the preliminary results and called on IFE to open ballot boxes and conduct a vote-by-vote recount, citing irregularities. Leonel Cota, president of the PRD, upped the stakes Wednesday by saying the campaign won't concede the election without a full recount.

While parties can appeal to district election officials to open ballot boxes for a recount, it's unclear if a nationwide recount is allowed under Mexican law.

[chilepepper]

what worrys me is that old PRI hands who have stolen so many elections and know just how to do it may have thrown their lot in with Obrador, either because he has offered them a better deal, or as a strategic move to deflate PAN and "even things out" so that the PRI might stage a come back in a few years.

if Calderon votes are still outstanding, whoever is orchestrating the recount IMHO is really going out of his way to make it appear Obrador is winning - if Calderon pulls it out in the last minute, the Obrador folks will have a made to order reason to take to the streets -- and they will, make no mistake in that.

[conservative in nyc]

Yup.

81.36% in, according to El Norte:

Obrador 36.63%
Calderon 34.69%

The gap's still closing.

[Chicos_Bail_Bonds]

81.95% in, according to El Norte:

Obrador 36.62%
Calderon 34.70%

[dpwiener]

Thank you for that information, which I translated via Google. It appears that Calderon strongholds in the north (Colima, Baja California, Sonora, and Durango) still have a majority of their votes to be recounted. Whereas Obrador's strongest areas have already reported in for the recount.

[conservative in nyc]

82.99% in, according to El Norte:

Obrador 36.56%
Calderon 34.72%

[conservative in nyc]

83.53% in:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.55 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.73 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.18 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360355.html

[conservative in nyc]

84.84 in:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.51 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.74 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.2 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360359.html

[conservative in nyc]

Calderon needs to pick up a net .116% per % in from now on in order to tie Obrador.

[CedarDave]

By my calculation he only picked up 0.04%/% last update. Needs much, much more soon, very soon.

[CedarDave]

85.34 % de casillas computadas.

Candidatos Presidenciales:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.49 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.77 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.2 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %

[CedarDave]

Picked up 0.100% per % last update

[conservative in nyc]

85.98 % in:

Candidatos Presidenciales:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.47 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.79 %

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/noticias.html

Another .04%

[BohDaThone]

my spreadsheet says Calderon needs 12.1% margin in the remaining vote. This has been edging up, but very slowly, from about 10% needed when only 69% wwere in. Meaning -- calderon is gaining, but not quite enough, unless picks up the pace. ON the other hand, as the remainder gets smaller and smaller, it becomes more plausible that the remainder are heavily from a pro-pan area. He carried 13 of the 32 states by margins of 18 to 45%.

Just as in the US, it depends on which boxes are out and which are in. There is a great passage in Teddy White's "The Making of the President 1960" where he discusses the Kennedy calls on election night to various state bosses -- Jesse Unruh, in California, didn't know which boxes were in and which were out (And Nixon pulled out California) -- but Daley did!!

[starbase]

Well it looks like Obrador will win. Any hard speculation from knowledgeable FReepers about what might actually happen with Obrador in power?

Let's see, Mexico's economy is already low, and socialism just pushes economies lower. He'll funnel oil money into non-wealth producing dole payments. I read on another thread that Mexico only has 10 years of major oil reserves left (unless they pump more from the Caribbean, but let's at least assume economic disruption from falling oil supplies).

So where does that leave us? A big crash in Mexico sooner or later, yet more Mexicans heading up here. But here we are way past the tolerance point and state and local legislatures are already picking up where the feds are failing, with big time pressure on national politicians building.

I predicate a truly crappy experience for the Mexican people under this (6 year term!) president, and a rapid and final hardening of immigration enforcement in the US with a shocking shift of US government, if that is what is necessary to align it with the people's wishes on immigration.

[starbase]

predicate = predict

[CedarDave]

Another .04%

0.063% per %

[KavMan]

Calderón is going to win. We're edging up nicely..... I hope hahahahaha

[Tall_Texan]

I love Rush's nickname for Obregon, "El Gor".

[BohDaThone]

last bump reduced the deficit to 1.52% with 87.50 in. That reduced the "gain-rate" needed, the first time that has happened lately. It may mean that we are moving into the hard-core PAN territory -- we'll see.

[conservative in nyc]

There are many areas that Calderon won with more than a 12% margin - practically every state he carried. The vote was very polarized, with the North heavily favoring the PAN, and the South heavily favoring the PRD.