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Tracking N Korea's missile intent
BBC ^ | 07/04/06 | By Rob Watson

Posted on 07/04/2006 2:02:15 PM PDT by garbageseeker

most things about North Korea, little is known for certain about the Taepodong 2 missile.

But there is no doubt North Korea does have a very long standing and pretty sophisticated missile programme.

North Korea's intentions are under the global spotlight

In 1998, before it began observing a moratorium on tests, North Korea launched a Taepodong 1 missile which passed over northern Japan and surprised Western intelligence agencies by the use of three stages in the missile's propulsion system.

What is striking about the Taepodong 2 is that it could well be North Korea's first genuine intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) - a missile with a range of more than 5,500km (3,400 miles).

Just how far it might be able to travel and with what weight and type of warhead and level of accuracy is uncertain.

But it has been suggested it could have a range up to 15,000km.

That would put Alaska or Hawaii within its reach and even the continental US if a lighter warhead were used.

Proliferation fears

In a sense though, what is more important here than the missile's precise specifications is what it says about North Korea's strategic intentions.

It indicates Pyongyang's apparent desire to have weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them at great distance.

North Korea's thinking appears to be that if it has nuclear weapons, which it claims to have, and the means to deliver them it should be safe from an attack by the US - a line of reasoning no doubt strengthened by the fate suffered by Iraq.

Just as worrying as North Korea's strategic goals are the dangers of proliferation should Pyongyang master a workable ICBM.

In the past, the North Koreans have shared their technology with Pakistan and Iran and other nations and may well do so again.

Bluffing hopes

So what can the US do militarily about any missile test by Pyongyang?

The US has already moved a couple of naval ships off the coast of North Korea to detect and track the launch of any missile.

It is also likely that the US has activated its still unproven and limited anti-missile defence system.

The system, which is based on linking radar and satellite information to nine interceptor missiles based in Alaska and California, has so far failed to intercept a single missile in recent tests.

For now though, the US appears to be relying more on the hope that North Korea is bluffing and that pressure from South Korea, Japan and China will persuade Pyongyang not to break the moratorium.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government; Japan; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Technical
KEYWORDS: antimissiledefence; asia; atomic; atomicbomb; chinaproliferation; clintonlegacy; elbaradei; foreignrelations; foreigrelations; iaea; icbm; japan; kimjongil; missile; missiledefense; nationalsecurity; nk; nodong; norad; northkorea; nuclear; nuclearblackmail; nuclearproliferation; nuclearwar; proliferation; pyongyang; rodong; russia; scud; scudmissile; southkorea; taepodong; taepodong1; taepodong2; whitehouse; wwiii
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To: WestVirginiaRebel

If it worked, there would have been a huge problem


21 posted on 07/04/2006 2:38:26 PM PDT by garbageseeker (It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.”Samuel Clemmens)
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To: markedmannerf

Supposedly, all of the missile defense systems were also placed on alert.


22 posted on 07/04/2006 2:40:24 PM PDT by garbageseeker (It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.”Samuel Clemmens)
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To: garbageseeker

Here's what I'd like to know:

If the big one had not flubbed, where was it headed?


23 posted on 07/04/2006 2:48:53 PM PDT by USA Girl
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To: USA Girl

Good question. Probably the United States?


24 posted on 07/04/2006 2:49:33 PM PDT by garbageseeker (It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.”Samuel Clemmens)
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It probably would been shot down.


25 posted on 07/04/2006 2:50:19 PM PDT by garbageseeker (It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.”Samuel Clemmens)
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To: garbageseeker

Speaking of missile interceptors, I was watching a dragonfly do some intercepting in my garden earlier today....

:o)

It's amazing how God instilled such a grand ability into such a small creature and here we are working so very hard to do it ourselves.


26 posted on 07/04/2006 2:53:57 PM PDT by USA Girl
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To: USA Girl
"If the big one had not flubbed, where was it headed?"

On another thread it says crashed near Russia .....

27 posted on 07/04/2006 3:03:09 PM PDT by spokeshave (I'd rather go hunting with Dick Cheney than drive over a bridge with Ted Kennedy)
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To: spokeshave

Maybe its guidance system was screwed up.


28 posted on 07/04/2006 3:11:16 PM PDT by garbageseeker (It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.”Samuel Clemmens)
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It happends


29 posted on 07/04/2006 3:12:06 PM PDT by garbageseeker (It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.”Samuel Clemmens)
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To: sukhoi-30mki; CarrotAndStick; Mike Darancette; sam_paine; Spktyr; F15Eagle
I would like to invite you to discuss the technical aspects of today's launch
30 posted on 07/04/2006 3:20:45 PM PDT by garbageseeker (It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.”Samuel Clemmens)
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To: garbageseeker

Basically, he launched his TD2, it either had a malfunction or was shot down 40 seconds into its boost phase.

I suspect that if it was a malfunction, it had help, and if it wasn't a malfunction, there's an Aegis cruiser with one or more empty VLS cells that weren't empty this morning.


31 posted on 07/04/2006 3:24:20 PM PDT by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)
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To: Spktyr

Could have it been a guidance system problem?


32 posted on 07/04/2006 3:25:39 PM PDT by garbageseeker (It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.”Samuel Clemmens)
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To: garbageseeker

It's possible that it went off course and that NK blew it up themselves, of course - but NK seems to be loathe to do that and is usually content to let the missile go where it may.

It's also possible that someone forgot to put shielding on the missile system and that someone else with a powerful radar zortched it.


33 posted on 07/04/2006 3:28:35 PM PDT by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)
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To: GodBlessPeggyNoonan
Iran, flush with cash, appears to need a delivery system for their weapons.

It was said on Fox News TV Channel this afternoon that Iran is actually funding the North Korean development of the Taepodong missile.

It's probable that Iran will be the first Taepodong buyer if North Korea succeeds. Iran threatens to use the Taepodong to nuke Israel.

34 posted on 07/04/2006 3:31:16 PM PDT by Rapscallion (They're not pro-America; they're democrats first.)
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To: garbageseeker
We knew exactly where the missile was located, I'm sure we knew exactly when the motors fired up (if not in prelaunch) besides which the first two missiles surely got and held our attention. I don't know where that missile would be 40 sec after launch but if far enough out to sea they would be meat for an a surface to air missile. As for laser ????

It seems Kim the Krafty believed two things; 1) the first two launches would fool us into either committing our defense or believing that the third was short range too, and 2) he could hide what he was doing in the dark. Neither would be true.

35 posted on 07/04/2006 3:38:54 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Make them go home!!)
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To: Mike Darancette

Are they making a bid to do 4th of July fireworks?


36 posted on 07/04/2006 4:29:20 PM PDT by ClaireSolt (.)
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To: Mike Darancette

Are they making a bid to do 4th of July fireworks?


37 posted on 07/04/2006 4:29:21 PM PDT by ClaireSolt (.)
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To: sukhoi-30mki; Mike Darancette; Spktyr; F15Eagle
The United States and Israel is experimenting with a High Energy Laser that has the ability to shoot down missiles. That laser is designed for these type of missiles because Iran has North Korean made missiles.Maybe this was a field testing.
38 posted on 07/04/2006 4:36:39 PM PDT by garbageseeker (It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.”Samuel Clemmens)
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To: ClaireSolt

I think they are.


39 posted on 07/04/2006 4:39:12 PM PDT by garbageseeker (It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.”Samuel Clemmens)
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To: sukhoi-30mki; Mike Darancette; Spktyr; F15Eagle; familyop

Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)


Country: USA
Associated Countries: Israel
Basing: Land
Range: 10 km
Status: Testing
In Service: 2008


Details

The Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL) is a joint project of the United States and Israel designed to destroy short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, ground- and air-launched rockets, unmanned aerial vehicles, mortar shells, and artillery projectiles. It consists of an advanced radar that detects and tracks incoming rockets, and a high-energy laser beam that destroys them.

Since the early 1980s, Israel has faced a constant threat from Hezbollah guerillas along its northern border. During eighteen years of fighting, the guerrillas wreaked havoc by firing numerous small, unguided Katyusha rockets at Israeli towns. The rockets were fast and low-flying and caused considerable damage. Hezbollah’s attacks were so numerous that Israel could not use interceptor missiles. In addition, since the Katyushas flew on ballistic trajectories and landed on Israeli towns unless completely destroyed, Israel could not deploy advanced machine guns such as those used by U.S. Navy ships against low-flying cruise missiles.

In 1995, the U.S. and Israel decided to address the growing problem of low-flying missiles by developing a high energy laser. The idea was to build a weapons system that could detect and eliminate threats at the speed of light while maintaining a low per-kill cost. Since Hezbollah was launching thousands of rockets, the defense system had to be capable of handling a large volume of attacks. In February 1996, the prototype U.S. high energy laser, known as Nautilus, destroyed a short-range rocket at a test site in New Mexico. It was the first time that a laser had ever destroyed a ballistic missile.

In April 1996, Hezbollah guerrillas fired over two dozen Katyusha rockets at Israel within 17 days. After that, the U.S. and Israel accelerated the high energy laser project, then known as the Tactical High Energy Laser/Advanced Concept Technology Demonstrator, or THEL/ACTD. Although Israel has not been attacked since it withdrew from Lebanon in 2000, Israeli officials estimate that Hezbollah still has 11,000 Katyushas aimed at border towns.

Once operational, THEL will consist of four main components: a command center, a fire control radar, a pointer-tracker, and the high energy laser itself. The command center, known as Command, Control, Communications, and Intelligence (C3I), will manage all aspects of the system, including detecting, tracking, and destroying incoming targets within THEL’s range. C3I will be operated by a two-man crew: a commander and a gunner.

Positioned near the hostile zone, the fire control radar will continuously scan the horizon for threats. Once an incoming rocket has been detected, the radar will calculate the target’s trajectory and enable the pointer-tracker to lock on to the target. THEL will be mounted on a large gimbaled assembly that will allow the pointer-tracker to swivel when tracking the rockets.

Once the target is within range, the pointer-tracker will focus THEL’s high-energy deuterium-fluoride (DF) laser beam on the incoming rocket. The DF laser beam is created by mixing fluorine atoms with helium and deuterium to generate DF in an excited state. A resonator extracts the DF and transforms it into a beam of coherent, monochromatic light.

The beam itself is only a few inches in diameter, but is powerful enough to heat steel at 200 yards or more. The pointer-tracker will keep the laser beam focused on the incoming rocket until the intense heat causes the warhead to explode. Debris from the blast will fall short of the rocket’s intended target, thus effectively neutralizing the threat. Once deployed, THEL will be capable of firing 60 shots before reloading. The system will operate at a per-kill cost of approximately $3,000, making it one of the most inexpensive anti-missile systems in existence.

In 2002, Northrop Grumman acquired TRW, the company that had been in charge of THEL up to that point. Northrop Grumman currently manages the system’s development and testing. Other U.S. contractors include Ball Aerospace and Brashear LP, while Israeli partners include Electro-Optic Industries, Israel Aircraft Industries, Yehud Industrial Zone, RAFAEL, and Tadiran.

To date, THEL has destroyed 28 Katyusha test rockets and five test artillery shells. On May 4, 2004, THEL’s new transportable version, known as the Mobile Tactical High Energy Laser (MTHEL), tracked and destroyed a large-caliber test rocket at the U.S. Army’s White Sands Missile Ranch in New Mexico. The rocket flew faster and higher than the Katyushas, and carried a live warhead. The U.S. and Israel expect MTHEL to be operational and ready for deployment by 2007.


40 posted on 07/04/2006 4:45:46 PM PDT by garbageseeker (It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fighHert in the dog.”Samuel Clemmens)
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