Posted on 07/03/2006 9:13:09 AM PDT by LdSentinal
PROVO — Former congressional hopeful John Jacob pushed to make illegal immigration the key issue of last week's Republican primary in the 3rd Congressional District, but exit poll results show the issue polarized voters in favor of his opponent, Rep. Chris Cannon.
Rep. Chris Cannon, here speaking last Tuesday awaiting election results, won 55.8 percent of the vote.
"Really what you see here is there's a very conservative contingent on issues like immigration, but there just aren't enough of them to elect a very conservative candidate," said Quin Monson, assistant director for the BYU Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, which conducted the exit poll during Tuesday's primary.
The center's poll found that 88 percent of voters said the issue of illegal immigration held some level of importance for them in casting their vote. A majority of those polled (54 percent) said the immigration issue was "very important," while another 34 percent said it was "somewhat important."
Monson called the moderate swing voters "critical" in deciding the outcome of the primary.
Moderate voters tended to agree with Cannon's softer approach to immigration. While Jacob won a narrow victory with voters who called immigration "very important," capturing 52 percent of their votes to Cannon's 48 percent, Cannon found strong support from the groups who called immigration "somewhat important" (66 percent for Cannon), "not too important" (56 percent) or "not important at all" (52 percent).
Kelly Patterson, center director, said Cannon's attempts to create a broader appeal netted him crucial support from voters who were less concerned about immigration.
"I think what the exit poll showed was there was one issue that really mattered to a particular segment of the voters, while those voters who were less concerned with it tended to vote for Cannon," he said. "The immigration issue, while very powerful and very potent, can't mobilize enough voters to give any candidate a majority."
Cannon has backed proposals by President Bush to allow many illegal immigrants to stay in the United States under certain circumstances, while Jacob has said such proposals amount to an amnesty and has called for tougher legislation.
Recorded messages from President Bush and first lady Laura Bush, played over the phone to potential voters in the days leading up to the election, may have helped Cannon as well. The exit poll found that when voters were asked to rate the president on a scale of one to five, 65 percent gave him a four or five, and the majority of those voters supported Cannon.
Voters who had a less favorable view of the president, giving him a three or less, were more likely to vote for Jacob.
Monson said Cannon is not the most popular incumbent among most Republicans but attributed his victory to his moderate appeal and mistakes that Jacob made in the race.
"One of the things we'll never know is how close it may have been had Jacob not made some of the amateur mistakes he did," he said.
Attempts to reach Jacob for comment were not successful.
Patterson said Jacob's strategy lacked a comprehensive approach. "To knock off an incumbent, you need more than one issue," he said.
When asked their opinion of how to deal with the issue of illegal immigration, most voters expressed solutions more in line with Cannon's philosophy. A plurality, 39.9 percent, said most illegal immigrants should be required to return home, but some should be allowed to remain in the United States in a temporary guest worker program. Another 30.6 percent said most illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay as temporary workers, but should be required to leave eventually.
Other solutions to the issue drew less support. Only 25 percent of voters agreed that all illegal immigrants should be required to go home immediately and just 4.5 percent thought all illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. permanently.
Monson called Cannon's assertions that it was not a one-issue election "partly right and partly wrong."
"I would say there were other issues, but immigration was clearly the focal point," he said.
The exit poll was conducted by volunteer student interviewers at 30 randomly selected polling locations in the 3rd District. Students interviewed 1,483 voters, 1,264 of which cast a vote in the Republican primary. The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.92 percent.
Jacob refused to run strongly, or even at all, on other key conservative issues such as pro-life, marriage, guns, gays, judges, etc.
His campaign manager was and is afraid of those things, and Jacob listened to him.
That's why he lost.
Go to jacob's website and you'll see clearly that I'm right.
Look for the dog that didn't bark...in other words, the lack of a conservative vision or agenda:
http://www.electjohnjacob.com/2.0/
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