Posted on 06/16/2006 8:27:19 PM PDT by waterloofan
That is odd. Webb had no TV ads in the week before the primary election? In any event, the post above said it was all Webb all the time, in DC land. Maybe he meant free MSM. I don't know.
So, I should not have said no ads "at all" as I just looked it up to be sure and Webb did air a radio ad just before the election. However, there were a number of commentaries before the primary with regard to whether Webb's reliance on the "netroots" and print media for his campaign would prevail over Miller's traditional R/TV ad campaign.
Interesting strategy. It clearly worked.
Webb doesn't need to buy ads, the liberal media give it to him for free. Allen is still whipping him.
And impressively so, since Miller spent well over $1 million on TV ads. That's actually the ironic part of the above observation that there's been a lot of advertising: There has been, but it's almost exclusively been attack ads savaging Webb. In light of that, if the 41% figure is legit, then Allen's got significant problems IMHO. I think that's almost entirely an anti-Allen vote (or anti-GOP/anti-Bush by proxy). If it's legit, then this could very swiftly become a toss up race once Webb goes on TV.
I can't see Allen losing to Webb. Allen has never lost a campaign in Virginia and is not disliked. Even the leftish tilt of Northern Va cant do him in, I think Webb is wasting his time (his time to waste, of course)
Could be, but as I said, Allen is a very high profile and known quantity.
Webb's gotten a lot of free media from the Wa Post, etc, and already has name recognition. That last 10 % (from 41 % upwards) is gonna be hard for him to get, IMO.
I think it's rather clear at this point that Virginia is drifting leftward. Kerry took 45.48% of the VA vote in 2004 and I think it'll be rather easy for Webb to match that. It's the last 4% that'll be a b!tch for him once Allen is fully engaged. The big question right now in VA politics is whether the Hampton Roads area is really following in the path of NoVa as some think. If so, a lot of the CW on Virginia politics will soon be obsolete, if it isn't already.
Bush beat Kerry by 8% in 2004 in Virginia. The biggest trend to the Dems has been in the Richmond suburbs over time believe it or not.
Well, it's worth noting that Bush's approval rating in Virginia was 55%+ in 2004 whereas Allen's approval rating has ranged between 49% to 53% this year.
But what is really funny is the rest of the cartoon was lifted from a Marvel Comics "How to draw cartoons" book -- not the skill, but actual PANELS from the book, with Miller's head put on the bodies of the people in the panels.
From the perspective of the average democrat, the primary wasn't nasty. Most of the nastiness took place in the blogosphere, and few people got to watch the debates.
Only about 5% of the democrats voted in the election.
But democrats are motivated to say no to republicans, so any poll that said "would you vote for Allen, or 'the democrat', would show this type of split, with the 40% of the democrats supporting the democrat.
Allen does have commercials up, but they aren't movement ads, they are remind people how nice you are ads.
It's nice to see him still above 50% in the polls.
That will be webb's high water mark.
We even have a Congress-critter, Jim Moran, a Democrat, whose buddy-buddy with known Islamofascists.
None of these guys ran advertising out there ~ on the other hand, Webb got plenty of free coverage from the MSM there = Tribune Group certainly seemed to like him.
When I got back I found out about the caricature business.
Okay, a lot to consider here.
All we've been hearing for weeks is how the national RATS have run in to support Webb. How he's going to be a serious challenger. How Allen "just might lose."
Pure Barbra Streisand.
First, this is just the primary. Allen has only begun running ads and Webb (and Miller along with him) have been campaigning and getting boatloads of free press and name recognition.
Do not, I repeat, do not underestimate the power George Allen brings to a general election campaign. When he gets out with the people, the people love him.
Even with all the malarky about how Mark Warner polls higher in Virginia than Allen, Marky Mark knew he couldn't win in a head-to-head "horse race" against Allen.
Finally, the Marriage Amendment is on the ballot this November. Allen supports it. Webb and Governor Kaine opose it. That's going to bring out the social conservatives who will also cast their vote for Allen.
My prediction? Allen ~at least~ 55%
My prediction is Allen 53% over Webb 46%.
I can live with that.
Good post, Corin.
George Allen detractors will watch this race like hawks and even if he were to win with 70% they say it should have been 71%.
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