RUSSIA VERSUS AMERICAN SPACE STRATEGY

American Foreign Policy Council ^ | 06/12/06 | Ilan Berman, ed.

[bruinbirdman]

MISSILE DEFENSE BRIEFING REPORT NO. 203

Observers are warning that American plans for the deployment of space-based defenses are creating a major strategic challenge for Russia. The expected release of a new space doctrine authorizing the deployment of space-based interceptors will force Russia to "create a new theater of war, resume an unprecedented arms race, and search for an 'adequate response,'" writes commentator Andrei Kislyakov in a June 12th analysis for RIA Novosti. That response, Kislyakov says, could include the reconstitution of a robust Russian anti-satellite effort, as well as an acceleration of the Russian government's work on intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of defeating American defenses.

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

The Russians apparently consider the Americans to oppose them, although they logically are increasingly being surpassed by China in the region, and China could take over Siberia from the developing and decreasing Russian people.

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

The Soyuz capsules are supposed to be more reliable than the space shuttle.

[RadioAstronomer]

Actually the Russian RD engines are really good.

[Rockingham]

We ARE their enemy: we exist as a powerful and free people. Russia's better choice would be to make an accommodation with the US and Europe. With an aging, declining, and unhealthy population, Russia will need support from the US within five to fifteen years to keep China from carving out what they want from the Russian Far East.

[Rockingham]

Russia's state power is increasing, but at the expense of the essential foundations of democracy, civil society, and the rule of law. The bullying of neighbors makes for frictions with them and a foolish estrangement with the West. Meanwhile, Russia's public health is so bad that it has managed the appalling feat of having a diminishing lifespan for ordinary Russians. The state treasury and siloviki are prospering and the metropolitan areas are booming due to the rise in the oil and gas market, but that is a tenuous basis for long term national development.

Russia, as always, seems to regard the West and the Poles as profoundly menacing, but a true reckoning of its strategic position today would recognize the rising power of two ancient adversaries: China and Islam. There are benefits in the current arms sales to China and nuclear technology sales to Iran, but those benefits are illusory and short-lived. The current Iran-China-Russia axis will not persist more than a decade because long term interests are against it.

Of course, Russia's current ruling elites regard China and Iran as congenial because they do not carry the disruptive contaigons of democracy and rule of law. Yet Chinese power and population is already penetrating into the Russian Far East, and soon, Russia's hold over that region will be only at China's sufferance. With nuclear weapons in hand, Iran's extreme Islamist regime will make impossible demands about Chechnya and treatment of the 'stans.

At some point -- perhaps when Iran demands that St. Peter's Square gain a minaret and Russians concede their Far East to China -- Russia's long suffering populace will recognize that their rulers have betrayed them. Of course, with many billions in stolen wealth secure abroad, Russia's political elite and the siloviki can always pack and leave. The dynamics of Russian history never seem to change, with only choices on offer: opening to the West and development of freedom and democracy at home, or authoritarianism and a foreign policy of state power at the expense of national interest.

[Rockingham]

I surmise that you are either Russian or pro-Russian to a great degree. If you are in Russia, you are unlikely to read the things that I do. Here are two articles that will help to explain my views:

On Russia's vulnerabilities in the Far East:

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2751/is_73/ai_109220705/print

And a sympathetic account from two Russian emigre scholars:

http://www.nixoncenter.org/index.cfm?action=showpage&page=America%20cannot%20have%20it%20both%20ways%20with%20Russia

Russia's help for Iran's civilian nuclear program and ballistic missile projects has no doubt generated rich commissions for shadowy middlemen, but the effect of Russia's dealings is to greatly spur Iran's nuclear weapons program and the emerging Iranian ballistic missile threat against Israel and Europe. Iran may make a deal, but I expect that a blockade and war is more likely.

As damaging as this would be for the world, Russia may see profit in it. If the Persian Gulf is shut down, then oil prices will run up to a range of $100 to $125. This will be crippling for the world economy but highly profitable for Russia for several years as its own energy exports boom in value. But such a development would also prompt much bitterness against Russia and a decline in the long term value of its energy resources as the world turns away from oil and gas to more reliable supplies and reduced demand.

[BeHoldAPaleHorse]

Why are our DEFENSES "a major challenge for Russia"?

Because they would be most effective in a scenario where we strike first, then use the defenses to blunt a ragged, uncoordinated second strike.

[Rockingham]

That is just silly. If the US withdrew from engagement with the world, the result would be chaos and war in most places, with the US slammed for abandoning its responsibilities. And the US does not want to "eat: Iran. They do want Iran to drop its nuclear weapons program, recurrent threats against its neighbors, and support for terrorism.

Russia's alliance of convenience with Iran gains cash and influence for now, but at the price of long term disadvantages and risks. With an established nuclear program and A-bomb tipped missiles that can reach Moscow, what would Russia do if Iran decided to support Chechen terrorism and demanded an end to Russian power in Central Asia? Call the US for help, I imagine.

[strategofr]

"At some point -- perhaps when Iran demands that St. Peter's Square gain a minaret and Russians concede their Far East to China -- Russia's long suffering populace will recognize that their rulers have betrayed them."

I believe the Russian covert services, the FSB, SVR, and GRU, have attained the greatest level of sophistication in subversion and infiltration of foreign societies that has ever been attained in the history of the world. Consider, the longtime chancellor of Germany, having been politically defeated---just went directly to a high paying job in Gazprom.

Remember, the Communist Party lost power in 1991, but the FSB gained power over the next decade and essentially rules Russia today.

Naturally, the primary focus of the FSB is the population of the Soviet Union itself---which has to be completely penetrated with government spies.

I think the problem of the Soviet population is not figuring out that their government has yet again betrayed them---but figuring out a way to do something about it---without being picked off one by one as they start to speak out by members of the "Mafia" (another covert government organization).

[strategofr]

"But such a development would also prompt much bitterness against Russia and a decline in the long term value of its energy resources as the world turns away from oil and gas to more reliable supplies and reduced demand."

Putin has set aside the "nice guy" mask. He's still smiling at the world, but so was Hitler in 1939 (not to draw an analogy between the relative powers, I realize Russia's power is reduced at this time; the analogy is between the goodness of their intentions.)

[strategofr]

"With an established nuclear program and A-bomb tipped missiles that can reach Moscow, what would Russia do if Iran decided to support Chechen terrorism and demanded an end to Russian power in Central Asia? Call the US for help, I imagine."

which would be effortlessly obtained which is why your scenario is not plausible. For example, Russia could use the UN to quickly apply crushing sanctions to Iran. Russia could stop arming Iran and stopped building nuclear power plants for them and stop providing them with missile technology. Note that so far, they have never given Iran "quite enough" technology to be independently dangerous.

[Rockingham]

During the Cold War, Russians were notorious for both extremely skilled manipulation and exploitation of Third World clients -- and bitter alienation of them. Iran could quickly turn against its alliance with Russia, rather like it did against the US a generation ago. Russia's relative value to Iran and leverage over them will decline as Iran's nuclear competence grows. Nor is secret assistance from Pakistan and possibly China subject to effective monitoring or check by Russia.

If Iran's nuclear weapons program is not stopped, two or three or five years from now Iranian nuclear missiles will have shorter and more secure trajectories against Moscow than they will have against the US and Europe. Even US forces and allies in the Mid East will be better defended than Russia because of US and Israeli advances in ABM technology. Since the mullah currently in charge in Iran seems to yearn for martyrdom, just what arguments would Russia offer against Iranian use of nuclear weapons over Chechnya?

Alternatively, an Iran with nuclear weapons and realists in charge would likely prefer to have an alliance with the US than Russia. After all, the current nuclear help is about all that Russia can offer Iran. In economics and security, the US has far more to offer a nuclear Iran than Russia does, and restoration of diplomatic ties and commercial relations would be an acceptable price for the US if Iran moderated its belligerence.

Even with US support, a Russian request for sanctions from the UN against Iran could be blocked by China; and the developing SCO pact will further limit Russia's options against Iran. More to the point, if a nuclear Iran started muscling Russia instead of the US and its allies, why should the US try to stop them? Or what price would the US charge Russia for its assistance? I suspect that the US would be inclined to charge Russia a steep price for delivering them from Iranian pressure.

Or, for a pessimistic alternative, suppose that Israel's defenses are overwhelmed or fail and she is successfully attacked by Iran with one or more nuclear weapons. There are indications that in such extreme circumstances, Israel would cast retaliatory nuclear strikes widely. Iran would be obliterated, and probably Damascus, and Russia might also get hit as punishment for its nuclear assistance to Iran.

These are some of the possible scenarios. There may be circumstances in which it makes long term sense to help a crazy neighbor acquire horrifically potent weapons, but I am hard put to imagine them.

[strategofr]

"During the Cold War, Russians were notorious for both extremely skilled manipulation and exploitation of Third World clients -- and bitter alienation of them."


Excellent point. as I recall, this tended to come about when Russia upgraded one ally over another.

"Iran could quickly turn against its alliance with Russia, rather like it did against the US a generation ago. Russia's relative value to Iran and leverage over them will decline as Iran's nuclear competence grows."

Yes. But this ties in with another possible point. Does Russia really want Iran to have nuclear weapons?

It is not at all clear to me that she does. I definitely think Russia wants the United States to attack Iran, a move that would shock the tender sensibilities of the Russians to their very core, and cause them to try to rally the world in the cause of freedom---under the benevolent Russian banner.

I suspect if they have this idea, they partly get it from Iraq---which may turn out pretty well for the Russians. As Vietnam did, for that matter---unless, as I sometimes suspect, the economic burden of the Vietnam War contributed to the demise of the Soviet Union.

Even if that were true, there would be no risk of a repeat of fact here. Now Russia makes money in Iran (as opposed to Vietnam, where they spent it)---while baiting the U. S. at the same time.

[Rockingham]

Russian likes or dislikes aside, Iran is energetically pursuing a nuclear weapons program, with indirect Russian help. Once nuclear weapons are obtained by Iran, they will redo the strategic balance drastically in their favor.

Iran's ability to export terrorism will be enhanced, as will its stature in the Muslim world. There will be a rapid spread of nuclear weapons in the region as other countries seek to meet Iran's capabilities. With the arguable exception of Turkey, these are not mature and coherent societies. A half dozen Muslim nations with nuclear weapons is a recipe for nuclear terrorism and war.

Since Iran is making blunt threats to destroy Israel, they cannot permit Iran to get nuclear weapons. Quite likely, absent effective US or world action, Israel will strike at Iran before they have their nukes ready. Due to the limitations of distance and the number of targets, Israel may have little choice but to use tactical nuclear weapons.

Alternatively, intermediate measures might prompt an overthrow of the Iranian regime or abandonment of their nuclear program. In addition to economic and political sanctions, the US could block Iran's essential supplies of refined gasoline, which would quickly collapse the Iranian economy and put their regime under severe stress. But having UN support would be essential so as to avoid stirring Muslim animosities.

At the worst, the US could launch an air campaign of several days duration that would devastate Iran's nuclear facilities, military bases, and regime control assets like police and intelligence headquarters. Again, Muslim animosities would be stirred to white hot intensity, but at least the attack would be brief and would dispose of Iran's nuclear capabilities.

All in all, Russia might calculate that these possibilities are in her interest because they would open an opportunity to ally with key Muslim states, with the manipulation of oil prices the mutually profitable objective. Yet events have a way of running in unexpected directions.

For example, an oil cutoff or severe price run-up in retaliation against the US would prompt a worldwide recession, causing China's export driven economy to fall apart, and a permanent lessening of demand for oil -- including Russian oil. Or, Muslim terrorists might turn their wrath at Russia, an easier and closer targets than the US. Or, if the US, acting by itself, manages to pull off a blockade and a change of regime in Iran, the US would end up with a formidable ally in the Muslim world. Events have a way of making fools of the wise.

[strategofr]

"Yet events have a way of running in unexpected directions."

True for all countries and all people. But no reason to stop playing the game.

"For example, an oil cutoff or severe price run-up in retaliation against the US would prompt a worldwide recession, causing China's export driven economy to fall apart, and a permanent lessening of demand for oil -- including Russian oil."

Taking the game from the Russian point of view, I don't believe they care what happens to China's economy. China is an ally but I'm sure Russia feels no need to try to take care of them.

As far as a reduction in the demand for Russian oil (or, to put it another way, a price drop) this is inevitable. The Russians are making hay when the sun shines. The price will inevitably go down for one reason or another. For one thing, US consumers will undoubtably start driving smaller vehicles---they already have, in fact.

In addition, if prices work to continue at this level for say two years (which I don't think will happen) the amount of exploration would go up tremendously, increasing the supply and reducing the price. For example, US oil companies are still not doing much exploration---citing the high cost of renting equipment at this time. Obviously, an extended period of high prices would increase the amount of equipment manufactured and reduce the price of equipment rental.

There are a lot of little aspects of oil price that change over time if price stays high. The US would straighten out the snafu relating to their refineries---I'm not sure what it is.


"Or, Muslim terrorists might turn their wrath at Russia, an easier and closer targets than the US."

I simply think this is impossible---due to my view of Muslim terrorists---but I'll admit I have a minority view. I think the Russians have a very large influence on Muslim terrorists---granted their connections are well hidden.


Consider this tidbit:


TERRORISM MONITOR



Volume 2 Issue 1 (January 15, 2004)
A RUSSIAN AGENT AT THE RIGHT HAND OF BIN LADEN?

http://jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=23472
By Evgenii Novikov
The Arabic television channel Al Jazeera broadcast an audiotape on December 19, 2003, that was said to be from Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the right hand man of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. In it, Zawahiri claimed that his group was chasing Americans everywhere, including in the United States. This claim helped raise the terror threat level.

But where is Zawahiri, whose head now carries a price of US$25 million? Recent media reports have said that he is hiding in Iran, though Iranian authorities deny this. Yet it could be that Russian intelligence knows exactly where he is and may even have regular contact with the elusive Egyptian.

Zawahiri as Prisoner

There are many accounts of Ayman al-Zawahiri published in the press. These stories cover Zawahiri's childhood and his relatives, his study of medicine, his connections to the Muslim Brotherhood, his involvement in the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, his close relations with Osama bin Laden, and his role in major terrorist attacks against the United States. But there are few authors who mention that Zawahiri spent half a year in close contact with representatives of Russian intelligence while in their custody.

Significantly, these contacts led to a change in Zawahiri's political orientation. Long talks with Russian intelligence officers "forced a critical change in his lethal planning. ...America, not Egypt, became the target... Freed from Russian jail in May 1997, Dr. Zawahri found refuge in Afghanistan, yoking his fortunes to Mr. bin Laden. [Zawahiri's group] Egyptian Jihad, previously devoted to the narrow purpose of toppling secular rule in Egypt, became instead the biggest component of al Qaeda and a major agent of a global war against America. Dr. Zawahri became Mr. bin Laden's closest confidant and talent scout." [1]

The story of Zawahiri's Russian experience begins on December 1, 1996, when he was traveling under the alias "Mr. Amin" along with two of his officers--Ahmad Salama Mabruk, who ran Egyptian Jihad's cell in Azerbaijan under the cover of a trading firm called Bavari-C, and Mahmud Hisham al-Hennawi, a militant widely traveled in Asia. The group was accompanied by a Chechen guide. They were trying to enter Russia between the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus Mountains in an effort to discover whether Chechnya could become a base for training militants. It was here that the group was arrested by Russian police for a lack of visas. They were soon handed over to the Federal Security Service, the successor to the KGB.

When Zawahiri's computer was later discovered in Afghanistan by two journalists, it provided insight into Zawahiri's side of the story. In short, it goes as follows:

The Russians failed to: 1) find out Zawahiri's real identity and the goals of his visit to Chechnya; 2) read the Arabic texts in his laptop, which would have revealed the nature of his activities; and 3) read the coded messages that he sent from custody to his friends.

Zawahiri's Version Debunked

Yet based on my own twenty years' experience with Russian intelligence people involved in Arab affairs, these claims simply do not ring true. The Soviet KGB had good--albeit indirect--connections with Islamic fundamentalists, including the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian Jihad. The curriculum of Arab terrorists who studied at Moscow International's Lenin School placed special emphasis on cooperation between Marxists and Islamists. Soviet instructors would encourage Arab terrorists to consider the Muslim Brothers and other Islamic extremists as "allies in class struggle."

Good contacts between the KGB and Islamic fundamentalists existed at the time of the Egyptian Jihad's 1981 assassination of Anwar Sadat, after which Zawahiri was jailed by Egyptian authorities. Since the KGB followed these events very closely and may have even been indirectly involved in the plot, the KGB would have put Zawahiri's name into its records at that time. Therefore, when Zawahiri crossed the KGB's path again, that organization likely would have soon discovered his real identity.

Additionally, local Islamic organizations flocked to Zawahiri's aid during his detention and trial in such large numbers that the Russians and even Zawahiri's own lawyer were puzzled by the outpouring. [2] This would have been another tip-off to the authorities that they had more than just a mere merchant (Zawahiri's reported claim) in custody. Also, the fact that he was arrested along with a Chechen should have raised additional suspicions.

Perhaps most difficult to believe from Zawahiri's version is that his captors would not have read the Arabic information contained within his laptop computer. Russian intelligence has probably the best Arabists in the world. One of them--Dr. Evgeny Primakov--headed the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service from December 1991 until January 1996 and made a considerable efforts to bring many talented Arabists into this service. These individuals would have been able not only to read Zawahiri's Arabic text, but also to decode his encrypted messages without any problem.

Thus, with Zawahiri's true identity and purpose uncovered by the Russians, these authorities would have been faced with several options. One would have been deportation to either Egypt or the United States, with gratitude from those governments for Russian President Yeltsin, burnishing his image as a fighter against terrorism. But apparently the Russians decided not to do this, believing perhaps that their national interest was better served by another alternative.

One should bear in mind that at the time of Zawahiri's capture, Chechnya was enjoying a period of actual independence from Moscow. The Kremlin was having great difficulty finding "agents of influence" among the Chechen people. At the same time, Moscow knew that representatives of al Qaeda and other foreign Islamic fundamentalists were present in Chechnya and exercised strong influence on the Chechen leaders, especially on the military commanders. It would have been logical, therefore, for the Russians to try to persuade Zawahiri to cooperate with them in directing the activities of Arabs in Chechnya, in getting information about the plans and activities of Chechen leaders, and in influencing the Chechen leadership.

It may not have been too difficult for Russian officers to persuade Zawahiri to go along with such a plan. The prisoner would have been very frightened by the prospect of being deported to Egypt or remaining jailed in Russia. Furthermore, methods of torture during interrogation used by KGB officers would have truly almost scared Zawahiri to death. Execution very likely was just one threat.

Once made aware that the KGB knew of his true identity, Zawahiri would have realized that it would be useless to lie further. At a minimum, Zawahiri would have had to agree to cooperation with Russian intelligence to save his life and to buy his freedom. It is possible that the Russians also offered some form of assistance to Zawahiri and al Qaeda. This could have been in the form of explosive technology or other weaponry.

It is notable that Taliban and al Qaeda militants in Afghanistan received regular re-supplies of Russian arms. The man responsible for these deliveries was Victor Anatolievich Bout, the son of a top KGB officer. His father's connections helped establish Bout in the arms trade, which is linked to the Russian government and particularly to its intelligence services. Bout and his family currently reside in the United Arab Emirates. [3]

It is also not difficult to imagine that the Russians managed to get some information from Zawahiri about his colleagues that could have been used to blackmail him if he tried to avoid cooperation after his release. With an agreement reached between Zawahiri and the Russians, the authorities would have taken steps to make the Egyptian look "clean" to his Arab comrades and the Chechens. It would not have been difficult for them to stage Zawahiri's trial, at which the judge gave him only a six months' sentence, much of which he had already served.

A final note: Arabs are still very active among the Chechen militants today, and yet the Russians appear to turn a blind eye toward their infiltration and do not hunt them particularly. Even the most influential among the Arabs, Khattab, may well have been killed by his own people. Arabs have also never been listed as POWs. Perhaps the Russian forces have an order to kill Arabs on the spot: Nobody wants them to reveal unwanted information during interrogations. Thus left alone, the Arabs exercise significant influence over the activities of Chechen commanders according to orders from Zawahiri. Presumably they do so without understanding that they could well be the Trojan horses who actually execute the Kremlin's orders. For example, the Arabs apparently do not encourage Chechen militants to direct any attacks against Russian leaders in Moscow. This could be accomplished simply by refusing to pay for such operations.

In contrast, the Arabs do seem to encourage the taking of hostages from among the common people, as in the Moscow youth club Nord-Ost incident, thus making it easier for the Kremlin to stoke public anger against "Chechen terrorists." This in turn helps Vladimir Putin garner popular support for his own authoritarian actions as well as those of his former KGB colleagues who now occupy 65 percent of top governmental positions. Dr. Zawahiri may thus be the queen in the Kremlin's chess game not only in Chechnya, but also in Russia's power struggle at the highest levels. If so, it is not likely that the Russians would surrender him merely to help win the global war on terror.

Dr. Novikov is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.

Notes:
1. "Saga of Dr. Zawahri Sheds Light On the Roots of al Qaeda Terror;" Andrew Higgins and Alan Cullison; The Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2002.
2. Ibid.
3. "International Business of Russian Mafia," Sueddeutsche Zeitung, February 1, 2001.




one exception to the hiding of connections is the fact that Iran---the greatest state supporters of terrorism in the world---are currently Russian clients, utilizing Russian nuclear reactors and Russian intermediate range missile technology.


"Or, if the US, acting by itself, manages to pull off a blockade and a change of regime in Iran, the US would end up with a formidable ally in the Muslim world."

I believe the US could change the regime in Iran---but only by providing weapons and support to the Iranian people. It definitely doesn't look as if Bush will do this. Hopefully, we will get another Republican president next and it may happen.



"Events have a way of making fools of the wise."

Everybody plays the fool sometime.
No exception to the rule---I ain't ly'in,
May be natural, may be cruel,
But everybody plays the fool.

[Rockingham]

Good comments, and the article about a possible link between the Russians and Zawahiri touches on some mysterious aspects of the War on Terror. The Soviets did much to spur Muslim terrorism, and with Putin and his old KGB pals back in charge, reversion to such practices is all too likely. Interesting, isn't it, that Putin claimed publicly to have warned the US of 9/11? Without spies or agents inside Al Queda or an alliance with them, just how could he know?

I think that Russia cares about China in the sense that she provides a market for Russian arms, oil and gas, and other natural resources; and, more significantly, China is the keystone of the SCO (the Shanghai Cooperation Organization), an emerging Russia-China alliance as a counterweight to the US and NATO. In that context, China's economic clout and growing military power aid Russia's strategic objectives and enhance its own power. Notably, Iran's bid to join the SCO is progressing rapidly, which fits neatly with your suggestion that Russia is allied with Al Queda and other Muslim terrorists.

The allure of a cheap success through popular internal revolt against an oppressive anti-US regime rarely proves out without effective US military intervention. Chile in the 70's is the only significant example that I can bring to mind, while failures are legion, such as Hungary in 1956, the Bay of Pigs in 1962, and the Shiite revolt in southern Iraq in 1991. Any strikes on Iran should aim not just at nuclear facilities, but also at its military bases and regime control facilities. That might permit the Iranian populace to stage a successful revolt and prevent a full-scale war. Otherwise, the Iranians would almost certainly get slaughtered by their regime if they revolted.

As much as Muslim jihadists hate the US, if we win in Iraq and suffer no significant terrorist attacks elsewhere, they might turn their effort against Russia as a less formidable target. And Iran with nuclear weapons cannot help but be more supportive of terrorism, perhaps even as to Chechnya and other Central Asian flash points.

[Rockingham]

Well put and all too true.