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Gore and Giuliani: The Ones to Watch in 2008
Front Page Magazine ^ | 6/7/06 | Dick Morris

Posted on 06/07/2006 5:26:05 AM PDT by areafiftyone

Gore and Giuliani: The Ones to Watch in 2008
By Dick Morris
FrontPageMagazine.com | June 7, 2006
The shape of the 2008 presidential sweepstakes is gradually becoming clearer through the fog of war. There is a surprising and artful symmetry in how each party’s contest is shaping up.

Both parties have clear front-runners — Hillary Clinton and John McCain — around whom the race will be formed. In each party there is a looming presence whose entry into the race could change it completely. And there is an assortment of ideologically more extreme contenders who are trying to break through and challenge the front-runner.

In the Republican primaries, McCain runs far ahead of all other contenders. But the specter of Rudy Giuliani hangs over the nominating process. If Rudy runs, his challenge will most directly affect McCain, who then would have to battle for the moderate side of the party. But if Rudy stays out, the contest will polarize around the Arizona senator. 

But since McCain is to the left of the GOP — despite his efforts to court the Right — he will inevitably face a runoff in the primaries against the great right hope, a title for which Virginia Sen. George Allen, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist are competing. Gov. George Pataki of New York and Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska are considering runs for the nomination, but both would have to battle McCain for the center-Left and neither will be able to get much traction in the face of McCain’s appeal.

The problem is that McCain probably can’t win the Republican nomination. He is too independent, original, creative, and populist for his party. A party that prides itself on regularity and corporate grayness won’t take a chance on a maverick who led the fight for tough corporate governance, against big tobacco, for campaign-finance reform, against CIA torture, and for tough environmental regulation. So the challenger who emerges from the right-wing mini-primary will probably be the nominee.

Interestingly, there is no tall mountain to climb for a challenger in the right-wing alternative-to-McCain derby. Allen is running a narrow first, with Romney slightly behind him. Frist will probably die early from diseases he caught running the Senate. Huckabee, a tremendous speaker with a clerical past and a galvanizing presence, could be a formidable late starter. But none of these candidates is getting many votes, and a good showing by anyone in a debate or a straw poll could begin a miniature landslide. My own bet is that Huckabee is the strongest of the field because of his platform skills. (Disclosure: he’s a former client of mine.)

On the Democratic side, Hillary is under increasing fire for her failure to move to the left on the Iraq war. In a massive miscalculation, she aimed at winning the general election by backing the war before she got the nomination, which will be decided by antiwar Democratic primary voters. Her error opens the door for Al Gore, the figure who is the equivalent of Giuliani’s looming presence over the Republican primary.

If Gore runs, it will be a dogfight to the end between these two veterans of the Clinton administration. Gore, a virgin on the war and the certified owner of the climate/energy/gas price issue, would give Hillary a very tough contest.

If Gore runs, there is no room for anybody else. If Gore doesn’t go for it, Sen. John Kerry and former Sen. John Edwards will assert their claims, but I think they will be easily pushed aside by Hillary. Both backed the war and are seen as losers in the wake of 2004’s disaster.

But that does not mean Hillary will have a cakewalk even if Gore stays out. Voters are antsy about nominating Hillary, worried that she is a polarizing figure who can’t win. That could open the way for a crop of new Democratic contenders like former Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia or Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana.

But my bet is that if Gore doesn’t run, Hillary wins the nomination.

As to the election, whoever wins the Democratic nomination in 2008 will get elected president unless:
(A) Either McCain, Giuliani or — my old favorite — Condoleezza Rice gets the GOP nomination, or
(B) McCain runs as an independent, a race he could win, thereby reshaping American politics forever.


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: electionpresident
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To: areafiftyone

OK, so Dick Morris thinks the '08 Presidential race will be between Hillary! and McVain. Given his track record at forecasting, I will take that as very good news!


21 posted on 06/07/2006 5:48:28 AM PDT by RebelBanker (If you can't do something smart, do something right.)
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To: demkicker

Yeah, I think most of the "news" is just press releases.


22 posted on 06/07/2006 5:51:41 AM PDT by Huck (Hey look, I'm still here.)
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To: demkicker

Doesn't all this seem very ho hum and old hat?


23 posted on 06/07/2006 5:53:38 AM PDT by ClaireSolt (.)
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To: areafiftyone
The problem is that McCain probably can’t win the Republican nomination. He is too independent, original, creative, and populist for his party.

Dammit, he's just too durn GOOD for those wascally Wepublicans!

24 posted on 06/07/2006 5:53:48 AM PDT by Jim Noble (And you know what I'm talkin' 'bout!)
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To: areafiftyone

I will never vote for a baby killer.


25 posted on 06/07/2006 5:56:30 AM PDT by conservative physics
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To: areafiftyone

Dick is one of those people who will tell an interviewer "I think Candidate Smith will win it all in tonight's election," and when the interviewer replies, "Candidate Smith just conceded to Candidate Jones," Morris will nod and say "Exactly as I predicted, Candidate Smith lost tonight's election because of his stance on..."


26 posted on 06/07/2006 5:56:38 AM PDT by Darkwolf377 (All Hail Buah The Wasp Killer!!!!!)
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To: areafiftyone

Will these Democrats stop telling us who the Republican candidate is going to be?

For me, George Allen is at the top of the list.


27 posted on 06/07/2006 6:00:48 AM PDT by Theo
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Comment #28 Removed by Moderator

To: Luke21
Not even Teddy Roosevelt could win running as an independent--all he did was to ensure that the Democrat would win. McCain, with luck, might do as well as George Wallace in 1968 or Ross Perot in 1992, but wouldn't come close to winning. He might be amenable to running as the 'Rats' VP nominee (he toyed with the idea in 2004), but maybe the hard Left in the Democratic Party would object to him in that role.

Morris isn't considering the impact of John Kerry's appearance on Bill O'Reilly's show tonight. Finally, a chance to clear up those questions, like why he won't sign the 180 and whether he got turned down for Harvard Law School because he had a dishonorable discharge from the Navy.

29 posted on 06/07/2006 6:02:34 AM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: ClaireSolt
Yes, indeed. Their play book mantra: Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes truth. At least we're onto them now and can spot 'em a mile away....
30 posted on 06/07/2006 6:05:52 AM PDT by demkicker (democrats and terrorists are intimate bedfellows)
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To: areafiftyone
In the Republican primaries, McCain runs far ahead of all other contenders.

GOP straw polls so far:

Tennessee - Frist
Minnesota - Gingrich
Michigan - Tancredo


lol. It hardly seems that McCain is running away with it, so far.
31 posted on 06/07/2006 6:05:59 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: areafiftyone
Hillary Clinton and John McCain

In other words, both parties are going to run clones.
32 posted on 06/07/2006 6:07:06 AM PDT by P-40 (Al Qaeda was working in Iraq. They were just undocumented.)
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To: areafiftyone

The potential race for 2008 makes me very sad because I don't see a conservative out there that comes close to meeting what I'd like to see in a candidate. I want to see someone who has a base of conservative ideas; someone who is not a one-issue person; who instills patriotism; who is fiscally responsible and is strong on the defense of this country. I think the Democratic primary is going to be extremely entertaining because I think in the end it's going to be a bloodbath on that side.


33 posted on 06/07/2006 6:14:31 AM PDT by Ptaz (Take Personal Responsibility--it's not fun, but it's the right thing to do.)
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To: dead

Australia might take us in.

BTW, Gore is a total has-been. He's foaming at the mouth half the time, like Howeird Dean. I wouldn't trust McCain with my wallet, much less the Oval Office. Hillary "it takes a village" Klinton is a dangerous socialist. Guiliani plays well in the East, but Southerners and probably Westerners could care less. I nominate Ronald Reagan.


34 posted on 06/07/2006 6:15:56 AM PDT by pleikumud
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To: wally-balls

I'd have to care about other folks opinions.

I'm not going to vote for a anti-gun, pro-abortion, pro-gay Northeastern liberal. And I'm not going to vote for the author of CFR. If those are the choices the 'Pubbies offer, then Democrats can have it, and I won't give a d@mn.


35 posted on 06/07/2006 6:17:09 AM PDT by Little Ray (If you want to be a martyr, we want to martyr you.)
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To: pleikumud
The fact is that neither Giuliani nor McCain stand much of a chance of winning the Republican nomination. Both men are unpopular with the conservative core constituency of the GOP. The other candidates, while perhaps more appealing to conservatives, have other flaws, such as inconsistent positions on social issues (Romney), a less than commanding public persona (Allen), or mediocre leadership (Frist).

I suspect the actual Republican Presidential candidate in 2008 might be someone whose name is not prominently mentioned at present. It may even be someone like Condi Rice, who denies any interest in running for the Presidency. After all, we are well over two years away from the general election. President Bush did not seriously entertain a Presidential run until the year before the 2000 election.

36 posted on 06/07/2006 6:29:55 AM PDT by Wallace T.
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To: areafiftyone

Dick Morris is loopy.


37 posted on 06/07/2006 6:31:22 AM PDT by Txsleuth
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To: wally-balls
LOL....took thirteen posts before Rudy was attacked!!

Perhaps freepers are wising up.

38 posted on 06/07/2006 6:33:56 AM PDT by OldFriend (I Pledge Allegiance to the Flag.....and My Heart to the Soldier Who Protects It.)
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To: Huck
McCain defeated Bush in the New Hampshire primary in 2000 (he did particularly well with non-Republicans who were allowed to vote in the Republican primary).

If Bill Bradley had been a little more exciting as a candidate, maybe he would have drawn a lot of the votes that went to McCain, so that Bush and Bradley would have been the NH winners, and Gore would have had a harder time winning the Democratic nomination, and Bush would have had an easier ride to the Republican nomination.

I don't know if McCain did well in any primary in 2000 where only registered Republicans could vote in the Republican primary.

39 posted on 06/07/2006 6:40:53 AM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: Verginius Rufus

Yeah, that's what I thought. He did ok in NH, as did Pat Buchanan, as I recall.


40 posted on 06/07/2006 6:41:58 AM PDT by Huck (Hey look, I'm still here.)
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