| Gore and Giuliani: The Ones to Watch in 2008 |  |
FrontPageMagazine.com | June 7, 2006
Posted on 06/07/2006 5:26:05 AM PDT by areafiftyone
The shape of the 2008 presidential sweepstakes is gradually becoming clearer through the fog of war. There is a surprising and artful symmetry in how each party’s contest is shaping up.Both parties have clear front-runners — Hillary Clinton and John McCain — around whom the race will be formed. In each party there is a looming presence whose entry into the race could change it completely. And there is an assortment of ideologically more extreme contenders who are trying to break through and challenge the front-runner.
In the Republican primaries, McCain runs far ahead of all other contenders. But the specter of Rudy Giuliani hangs over the nominating process. If Rudy runs, his challenge will most directly affect McCain, who then would have to battle for the moderate side of the party. But if Rudy stays out, the contest will polarize around the Arizona senator.
But since McCain is to the left of the GOP — despite his efforts to court the Right — he will inevitably face a runoff in the primaries against the great right hope, a title for which Virginia Sen. George Allen, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist are competing. Gov. George Pataki of New York and Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska are considering runs for the nomination, but both would have to battle McCain for the center-Left and neither will be able to get much traction in the face of McCain’s appeal.
The problem is that McCain probably can’t win the Republican nomination. He is too independent, original, creative, and populist for his party. A party that prides itself on regularity and corporate grayness won’t take a chance on a maverick who led the fight for tough corporate governance, against big tobacco, for campaign-finance reform, against CIA torture, and for tough environmental regulation. So the challenger who emerges from the right-wing mini-primary will probably be the nominee.
Interestingly, there is no tall mountain to climb for a challenger in the right-wing alternative-to-McCain derby. Allen is running a narrow first, with Romney slightly behind him. Frist will probably die early from diseases he caught running the Senate. Huckabee, a tremendous speaker with a clerical past and a galvanizing presence, could be a formidable late starter. But none of these candidates is getting many votes, and a good showing by anyone in a debate or a straw poll could begin a miniature landslide. My own bet is that Huckabee is the strongest of the field because of his platform skills. (Disclosure: he’s a former client of mine.)
On the Democratic side, Hillary is under increasing fire for her failure to move to the left on the Iraq war. In a massive miscalculation, she aimed at winning the general election by backing the war before she got the nomination, which will be decided by antiwar Democratic primary voters. Her error opens the door for Al Gore, the figure who is the equivalent of Giuliani’s looming presence over the Republican primary.
If Gore runs, it will be a dogfight to the end between these two veterans of the Clinton administration. Gore, a virgin on the war and the certified owner of the climate/energy/gas price issue, would give Hillary a very tough contest.
If Gore runs, there is no room for anybody else. If Gore doesn’t go for it, Sen. John Kerry and former Sen. John Edwards will assert their claims, but I think they will be easily pushed aside by Hillary. Both backed the war and are seen as losers in the wake of 2004’s disaster.
But that does not mean Hillary will have a cakewalk even if Gore stays out. Voters are antsy about nominating Hillary, worried that she is a polarizing figure who can’t win. That could open the way for a crop of new Democratic contenders like former Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia or Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana.
But my bet is that if Gore doesn’t run, Hillary wins the nomination.
As to the election, whoever wins the Democratic nomination in 2008 will get elected president unless:
(A) Either McCain, Giuliani or — my old favorite — Condoleezza Rice gets the GOP nomination, or
(B) McCain runs as an independent, a race he could win, thereby reshaping American politics forever.
OK, so Dick Morris thinks the '08 Presidential race will be between Hillary! and McVain. Given his track record at forecasting, I will take that as very good news!
Yeah, I think most of the "news" is just press releases.
Doesn't all this seem very ho hum and old hat?
Dammit, he's just too durn GOOD for those wascally Wepublicans!
I will never vote for a baby killer.
Dick is one of those people who will tell an interviewer "I think Candidate Smith will win it all in tonight's election," and when the interviewer replies, "Candidate Smith just conceded to Candidate Jones," Morris will nod and say "Exactly as I predicted, Candidate Smith lost tonight's election because of his stance on..."
Will these Democrats stop telling us who the Republican candidate is going to be?
For me, George Allen is at the top of the list.
Morris isn't considering the impact of John Kerry's appearance on Bill O'Reilly's show tonight. Finally, a chance to clear up those questions, like why he won't sign the 180 and whether he got turned down for Harvard Law School because he had a dishonorable discharge from the Navy.
The potential race for 2008 makes me very sad because I don't see a conservative out there that comes close to meeting what I'd like to see in a candidate. I want to see someone who has a base of conservative ideas; someone who is not a one-issue person; who instills patriotism; who is fiscally responsible and is strong on the defense of this country. I think the Democratic primary is going to be extremely entertaining because I think in the end it's going to be a bloodbath on that side.
Australia might take us in.
BTW, Gore is a total has-been. He's foaming at the mouth half the time, like Howeird Dean. I wouldn't trust McCain with my wallet, much less the Oval Office. Hillary "it takes a village" Klinton is a dangerous socialist. Guiliani plays well in the East, but Southerners and probably Westerners could care less. I nominate Ronald Reagan.
I'd have to care about other folks opinions.
I'm not going to vote for a anti-gun, pro-abortion, pro-gay Northeastern liberal. And I'm not going to vote for the author of CFR. If those are the choices the 'Pubbies offer, then Democrats can have it, and I won't give a d@mn.
I suspect the actual Republican Presidential candidate in 2008 might be someone whose name is not prominently mentioned at present. It may even be someone like Condi Rice, who denies any interest in running for the Presidency. After all, we are well over two years away from the general election. President Bush did not seriously entertain a Presidential run until the year before the 2000 election.
Dick Morris is loopy.
Perhaps freepers are wising up.
If Bill Bradley had been a little more exciting as a candidate, maybe he would have drawn a lot of the votes that went to McCain, so that Bush and Bradley would have been the NH winners, and Gore would have had a harder time winning the Democratic nomination, and Bush would have had an easier ride to the Republican nomination.
I don't know if McCain did well in any primary in 2000 where only registered Republicans could vote in the Republican primary.
Yeah, that's what I thought. He did ok in NH, as did Pat Buchanan, as I recall.
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