Posted on 06/04/2006 11:22:46 PM PDT by RWR8189
If Hillary Clinton is such a shoe-in for her party's 2008 presidential nomination, then a new Florida poll is something for Democrats to worry about.
More than 30 months before the 2008 election, Sen. Clinton can't get more than 50 percent of the vote when matched against two unknown Republican candidates?
And, given Florida's key role in the Electoral College, the new survey will almost certainly provide more fodder for one of the most popular parlor games in New York and Washington, D.C. these days - "Can Hillary Win?"
That's because there is almost a consensus developing among many of the Democrats who spend their waking hours thinking about the next election that she is very likely to be their 2008 presidential nominee.
Many Democrats are happy about this -- especially feminists and, except for the really left-wing types who think she doesn't genuflect to their causes enough -- party liberals.
But among those who see themselves as Democratic centrists, especially with roots in the Sun Belt, there is worry her candidacy might be as unsuccessful in November as were those of George McGovern, Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis.
Even though Sen. Clinton has sought to recast herself as a political moderate, the former first lady still has a serious problem in "red state' America," as the new poll results show.
Florida is the most important "red state" and probably the most likely one in the Sun Belt for a Democrat to win in a successful presidential campaign. Remember, Bill Clinton carried it in 1996, and Al Gore essentially tied it in 2000.
A number of public opinion polls have tested Sen. Clinton's strength, both nationally and in some states, against former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona. They are the two potential candidates who lead Republican trial heats, and she generally trails both of them.
Both Giuliani and McCain, like the former first lady, enjoy almost universal name recognition. The results of the polls pitting them against each other reflect public opinion based on roughly equal knowledge of the candidates.
In Quinnipiac University's May Florida survey, for instance, McCain led her 48-42 percent and Giuliani was ahead 49-42 percent.
But neither man's record reflects the views and values of the GOP conservative base, which generally holds sway over the presidential nominating contest.
However, Quinnipiac also matched up Sen. Clinton against two other 2008 potential Republican presidential aspirants, Sen. George Allen of Virginia and Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. She defeated Allen 46-40 in a survey taken in April and Romney 50-39 percent in a May poll.
Both Romney and Allen are little known outside their own states, and the survey question that asked voters to decide between them and Sen. Clinton supplied only their party label and current or last office held.
There is an oft-quoted axiom in politics that when a well-known candidate is matched against an unknown in a poll far before an election, the better-known is probably at or close to their maximum support level.
That's because of the (generally, but not always true) assumption that such trial heats are almost exclusively about the well-known candidate who is unlikely to do better once the opponent gains more visibility.
The significance of Sen. Clinton not getting a majority, even against two unknowns, is in the eye of the beholder.
But Democratic centrists who think she would take the party down with her if she were the nominee will likely give voice to the results.
As for Republicans, it will probably reinforce the belief among most that although Sen. Clinton would rally the Democratic base, she would have difficulty winning a two-candidate general election.
Of course, Sen. Clinton's supporters will accurately point out that she does not need Florida to win the White House. All she has to do is carry the same states John Kerry did in 2004 and add Ohio.
But over the past three presidential elections, the Democratic vote percentage in Ohio has averaged only 2 percent more than in Florida.
That's why this preliminary data about Sen. Clinton's popularity against two relative unknowns matter.
The 2008 'Rat nomination is Hillary's. She keeps it in the iron-clad lock box she stole from Al Gore. I don't think she has much chance at the White House (which is why I want us to nominate a real conservartive like Tom Coburn) but there is no force within the Donk party that can wrest the 2008 nomination away from her.
She will run because she has raised too much money not to run. But she is a terrible campaigner in that she comes across as arrogant, incompetent and worst of all, just not likable. She will try for the nomination but will get out half way through, latest. Bill will not be an issue. For one thing, he is too sick to campaign effectively.
Hitlery doesn't have a chance. Too many Americans find her utterly repellent, and even the Rats are now beginning to see that.
Unfortunately it looks like it might be Al Gore/Mark Warner.
Gore is rumored to have enough Google options to finance a presidential run from his own pocket, and Warner also is quite wealthy (high-tech entrepreneur who later founded a successful VC firm, Columbia Capital). They don't really need the traditional Rat money that Hitlery's been filching for the last several years.
Gore apparently has a lot of appeal with the red meat DUmmies, he's with them on all their big issues. Also popular in the minority community with that "Preacher Al" act he invented last campaign. Warner is low-key and more genial, and as mentioned has the "moderate" persona which may temper Gore's complete and utter insanity.
In any case I can't see how Hitlery is going to make it even to the Rat convention.
ROFL!
Hillary has got the money. Cash money, and also fundraising potential. She can host high dollar fundraisers herself, and Bubba can too, of course. They know all of the big 'Rat funders, and the Clintons can and will demand early and exclusive support.
Further, she and he know all of the key people in the 'Rat state Party organizations. Their personal connections within organized Rattery dwarf all others. Also they know all of the big government and service employee union bosses, as well as the key opinionmakers among the lawyers' groups, the media, and other centers of 'Rat power.
Finally, the idea that Hillary has enemies to the left is pure 'Rat treachery. Just as we know her true stripes, so do the leftist sociopaths in the abortion cult, the grievance industries, the gun-grabbers, etc. Every big leftist ideological group (Brady, ACLU, NOW, Sierra, etc.) will support her when the time comes, and basically all of the leftists know this.
So it all boils down to the question of her electability in the general election. I agree that she seems very unlikely to win barring a strong third-party showing AND a crappy GOP candidate. But I believe that Hillary (and Bill) will never voluntarily stand down for the good of the party (rather, they will overestimate both their popularity and their "superiority" to other 'Rat candidates). And I see no other 'Rat candidate or other center of 'Rat power around which an alternative to Hillary can form. She and Bubba will simply go directly to all who matter and make them an offer they can't refuse.
Hillary will not be stopped by any "Rat, because there is no 'Rat or group of 'Rats she can't crush. And if Hillary wants something (and I believe she wants the Presidency more than anything else in the world) she will crush any and all who stand in her way. Lower-level 'Rats understand this implicitly. Therefore they will rush to join Hillary!2008 the moment the vote counting is completed this November.
The southeast Florida northeast retirees can't die off soon enough. As a native Floridian I have seen southeast Florida turn into another country. They brought with them the same northeast idiology that has turned their states of origin into liberal hell holes. I have seen it spread like cancer. These FDR types can't be gone soon enough.
I've been wondering about Bill. I saw him on a TV ad for children's obesity and he looks terrible. His left eye is quite droopy.
Maybe this time the 3rd party dupe will work in our favor.
Matbe Algore runs as a greenie... :)
In otherwords, someone is finally acknowledging the obvious? That it isn't that ONLY McCain or Rudy could beat her, McCain would lose no matter what imo.....but that basically they were doing name recognition trials with these polls.
I said all along, put up a conservative or perceived conservative and they'll beat her. Kerry was unknown to most people except those he trashed in 'Nam before his race, these campaigns are about getting to know the candidate. You don't need "star" wattage to win but you better damn well have someone who is right on the issues.
40-46% is the minimal any Democrat will get. If that's the best she can do, she's worthless as a candidate. You're supposed to find a candidate that can get you the remainder that = victory. She can't do that unless we help her by choosing someone worthless.
Hillary can only win the same way her husband won, with a third party candidate. If, and when, we see a third party candidate emerge we will know she's serious.
Yeah. I'm basing what I said strictly on his appearance. I haven't read anything specific on his health. But as you said, he looks terrible. I didn't notice the eye but he is very thin and not lively or animated the way he used to be. Really, to me he looks like a guy with maybe 5 years left. I don't think he will be in evidence very much during the campaign and certainly not on the campaign trail making speeches. My guess is they will put him on display a few times and that'll be about it.
You'll see poll after poll after poll and they'll call in the crew from "Numbers" to find out why these polls aren't indicating what she THINKS should be the correct numbers.
She thought it was "in the bag"...just didn't realize that she IS the BAG and the BAG is empty.
Don't under-estimtate the corruption of the Clinton machine.......they are the masters of corruption...
Her husband won twice on less than 50% of the popular vote...
Unfortunately, Hillary benefits if Bill dies or is sick. Just as how many felt sorry for her after Monica and Bill had pizza together.
“Hurrah boys... we caught them napping!” -George Armstrong Custer, Little Bighorn 1876
I knew they were related!
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