Posted on 06/02/2006 2:38:37 PM PDT by ardmoreokie
BERLIN (Reuters) - The United States will lose its position as the world's undisputed leading power over the next decade and a half, with China emerging as a formidable rival, according to a new survey from Germany's Bertelsmann Foundation.
In the survey, based on interviews of 10,250 people worldwide, 57 percent of respondents said they believed the United States would be a world power in the year 2020 compared to 55 percent who saw China in that role.
That compared to 81 percent who currently see the United States as a world power and 45 percent who believe China has already attained that status.
The survey, entitled "World Powers in the 21st Century" was conducted by the Gallup and TNS Emnid polling institutes in nine countries -- Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States -- between October and December 2005. Between 1,000 and 1,500 interviews were conducted in each of the countries.
The survey showed the Chinese themselves are confident they will gain influence on the global stage. A full 71 percent of Chinese respondents said their country would be a world power by 2020, compared to 44 percent who see China in that role today.
By comparison, 54 percent of Americans see China as a global power in 2020, up slightly from the 51 percent who already view China that way.
The survey showed that India would also rise as a world power, with 24 percent of respondents assigning it that status in 2020 against only 12 percent today.
Besides the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Japan were expected to decline in status, shedding 11, 6, 5 and 5 percentage points, respectively in the next 15 years.
Of the respondents within those five declining countries, only those in France went against the international trend and said their country would gain in status from now until 2020 -- with 33 percent of French seeing their country as a world power today and 35 percent in 2020.
DIFFERENCES ON MILITARY POWER, TERRORISM
The survey showed that people in the nine countries considered "economic power and potential for growth" as the most important quality for a world power.
There was disagreement on the importance of "military power" as a factor, with a third of respondents in China and the United States listing it as crucial, but only 7 percent in Germany and 16 percent in Japan viewing it as important.
There were also differences in how the countries viewed the main challenges confronting the world. In seven of the nine countries, over 50 percent of respondents listed international terrorism as the chief challenge.
But in China and Brazil less than a third of those surveyed put terrorism in that category. The Chinese listed environmental destruction and scarcity of natural resources as top threats.
In only China and Germany was a majority of the population of the opinion that peace and stability in the world could best be achieved under the leadership of the United Nations.
My understanding is that their economic output is in the neighborhood of 1.6 trillion or 1.8 trillion.
Assuming we continue on at our long term economic growth rate of 3.1%, we'll grow from a 12 trillion dollar economy to a 254 triilion dollar economy in 100 year.
China will have to grow at a rate of some 5.1% for that hundred years to achieve the same measure.
That's quite a hurdle considering their confiscatory regulations and restrictions, awkward monetary and fiscal policies.
This of course says nothing of their fragile financial system, which is predisposed to a meltdown fairly soon (look to banks' capital inadequacy and misallocation of resources).
Probably not in 200 years.
tell that to the EU
since when did size or population matter in determining world power status?
think of all the greatest world powers for the last 500 years or more...
US
Germany
Japan
Britian
France
Spain
Portugal
all were small countries with fairly small populations (except the US).
Greatness is determined not by your size or population but by your deeds.
I've been to China. It won't be a world power rivaling the US any time soon and certainly not by 2020.
You math is correct. But there are other factors to consider. There's the strengthening of China's currency as they become more integrated into the world, development of domestic technology, the creation of a more unified market within China, and the clean up and strengthening of it's financial system.
At present the exchange rate is 8 yuans to the dollar. But if over the next 25 years, the value strengthens to 2 yuans (strengthening by a factor of 4) to the dollar, and assuming a growth rate of 7% for China and 3% for the US, it is very forseeable that China would surpass the US under 25 years instead of 100 years. And a growth rate averaging 7% over 25 years isn't unreasonable considering S. Korea did it and Taiwan did it over decades. And for a developed natioin like the US, 3% over 25 years is considered fairly robust. BTW, China's GDP is about 2.2 trillion vs US 12 trillion.
So, with that in mind, here is how the math could look over 25 years:
2.2 trillion * ((1.07)**25) * 4 = 47.8 trillion (China)
12 trillion * ((1.03)**25) = 25.1 trillion (US)
One last point, in the decades following WWII, the Japanese Yen was about 400 yens to the dollar (thereabouts). Now, it hovers around 100 yen to the dollar. Given all of Japan's growth, if the yen had not strengthened, Japan's GDP wouldn't be the second largest in the world as it is today using the straight forward math you described. It would be half the size of Britain. But the accumulation of wealth, integration into the world economy, development of banking and financing and development of tech industries all helped in strengthening their currency and the overall dynamics of their economy.
Given the accuracy shown in other "studies of the future" over the decades, China should take no comfort from this.
That's quite a hurdle considering their confiscatory regulations and restrictions, awkward monetary and fiscal policies. This of course says nothing of their fragile financial system, which is predisposed to a meltdown fairly soon (look to banks' capital inadequacy and misallocation of resources).
One more point, China put a major bank (I believe "The Bank of China") on public auction recently. China is serious about cleaning up their financial sector and the rest of the world is betting that they will as well by the rise in the recent IPO for BOC. There's alot of clean up to do for sure, but investors are betting that it will occur.
If you can't do, then teach. If you can't find real news, then take a poll and call it news.
The article says that between 1,000 and 1,500 people were polled in each country represented, which includes the US. I don't think the size of China's population would skew the results.
I would agree with you on that. China shows little sign of entering into an arms race with the US. She is more concerned about energy than anything. Without access to energy, economic growth will come to a halt. And during peace time, diplomacy and economics weild tremendous influence, in which China is growing by leaps and bounds in.
If anything, I believe the US will police the world while China continues to expand her markets. The US will actually begin to resent (if not already) China's growing market strength while the US expends their resources on military. At the moment, it would be politically incorrect if China exerts her military in anyway. But there will come a day when it will be acceptable and the US, most of all, will prod China to send her own troops overseas to help maintaining global security.
China claims 7%+ growth yet would never allow outsiders to look at its "books". So we only have their word on this supposed prosperity.
Which are what? History shows that China has been more of an iceberg -- meaning composed of several parts compacted into one -- instead of a block of granite.
"...At present the exchange rate is 8 yuans to the dollar. But if over the next 25 years, the value strengthens to 2 yuans (strengthening by a factor of 4) to the dollar, and assuming a growth rate of 7% for China and 3% for the US, it is very forseeable that China would surpass the US under 25 years instead of 100 years...."
Those are pretty staggering assumptions considering the fourfold increase in cost of goods to the American consumer, who drove the smaller countries you mention to prosperity largely on fixed exchange.
Of course, that fixed exchange appears to precondition you for failure. (See Asian contagion.)
Japan seems not to be a good example for anything: twenty years of keiretsu astride a completely undeveloped financial system, persistent misallocation of resources, and a confiscatory convoy mentality. Humm...
I am referring to the informational technology obtained during the Clinton years, which then added to the growth during the Bush years.
A President's influence does not begin with his inauguration, nor does it end when his term is up.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.