Posted on 06/02/2006 2:38:37 PM PDT by ardmoreokie
BERLIN (Reuters) - The United States will lose its position as the world's undisputed leading power over the next decade and a half, with China emerging as a formidable rival, according to a new survey from Germany's Bertelsmann Foundation.
In the survey, based on interviews of 10,250 people worldwide, 57 percent of respondents said they believed the United States would be a world power in the year 2020 compared to 55 percent who saw China in that role.
That compared to 81 percent who currently see the United States as a world power and 45 percent who believe China has already attained that status.
The survey, entitled "World Powers in the 21st Century" was conducted by the Gallup and TNS Emnid polling institutes in nine countries -- Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States -- between October and December 2005. Between 1,000 and 1,500 interviews were conducted in each of the countries.
The survey showed the Chinese themselves are confident they will gain influence on the global stage. A full 71 percent of Chinese respondents said their country would be a world power by 2020, compared to 44 percent who see China in that role today.
By comparison, 54 percent of Americans see China as a global power in 2020, up slightly from the 51 percent who already view China that way.
The survey showed that India would also rise as a world power, with 24 percent of respondents assigning it that status in 2020 against only 12 percent today.
Besides the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Japan were expected to decline in status, shedding 11, 6, 5 and 5 percentage points, respectively in the next 15 years.
Of the respondents within those five declining countries, only those in France went against the international trend and said their country would gain in status from now until 2020 -- with 33 percent of French seeing their country as a world power today and 35 percent in 2020.
DIFFERENCES ON MILITARY POWER, TERRORISM
The survey showed that people in the nine countries considered "economic power and potential for growth" as the most important quality for a world power.
There was disagreement on the importance of "military power" as a factor, with a third of respondents in China and the United States listing it as crucial, but only 7 percent in Germany and 16 percent in Japan viewing it as important.
There were also differences in how the countries viewed the main challenges confronting the world. In seven of the nine countries, over 50 percent of respondents listed international terrorism as the chief challenge.
But in China and Brazil less than a third of those surveyed put terrorism in that category. The Chinese listed environmental destruction and scarcity of natural resources as top threats.
In only China and Germany was a majority of the population of the opinion that peace and stability in the world could best be achieved under the leadership of the United Nations.
"In only China and Germany was a majority of the population of the opinion that peace and stability in the world could best be achieved under the leadership of the United Nations."
LOL
If Washington continues to give away America, then we'll cease to be a world power long before China gets it's feet under itself.
There, fixed it.
Somebody should tell China that you are never really a super power unless you can do that "Force Projection" thing.
Like pick up 250,000 troops, take them half way around the world and sustain them in combat operations.
Wouldn't China's large population somehow distort the poll results? I guess there is still something to be said (commended?) of national confidence.
We could argue about the dates, 2020, 2025, 2030, but whatever date you pick, without Clinton it would have been 10-20 years further out.
I would like to know the quality of the sample they used. Plus China will implode well before 2020 - environmental destruction, financial meltdown, insipid corruption - Yeah, they will overtake us. HAHAHA
yawn... last decade it was Japan... next decade it will be India...
I've heard it all before.
Japan has a population of just over 100 million on a land the size of California. It has no chance of competing against the US. China is a different animal.
I always find it funny that people like such behave in this way:
1) They believe US's absolute power is more than everyone else combined.
2) Due to 1), they believe most US actions must be stopped.
3) But they also believe in 15 years it will be PR China who will call the shots.
4) But the logic of 3 is that US actions will fail because in time, they will be countered by Chinese actions.
5) 4) makes 2) redundant. There is no point to be anti-American now because the US will be nothing more than a glorified Australia by 2020, just like it was in the days when the British Empire was one which the sun never sets.
6) If 5) is true this means these people don't think with reason.
Unfortunately, I believe it.
The United States can't even conduct a war without 1/2 the population and the free press bitching about killing the enemy.
[In the survey (poll), based on interviews of 10,250 people worldwide]
In the U.S. the media uses 1000 people to share their opinions to represent their idea of truth, Germany, at least, 10 times that amount to take the pulse of the whole world. How could hundreds of millions of experts possible be wrong, I guess we're DOOMED.
GOOD. Let China bail out every country in the world that gets a boo boo from a storm, quake, disease, famine or whatever. Personally, as long as we have our nukes, our soverienity, our strong armed forces and our economic clout, what's the problem. Let them call China first and let us be backup.
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