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China to rival US as world power by 2020: survey (Berlin survey)
Reuters ^ | June 2, 2006 | Noah Barkin

Posted on 06/02/2006 2:38:37 PM PDT by ardmoreokie

BERLIN (Reuters) - The United States will lose its position as the world's undisputed leading power over the next decade and a half, with China emerging as a formidable rival, according to a new survey from Germany's Bertelsmann Foundation.

In the survey, based on interviews of 10,250 people worldwide, 57 percent of respondents said they believed the United States would be a world power in the year 2020 compared to 55 percent who saw China in that role.

That compared to 81 percent who currently see the United States as a world power and 45 percent who believe China has already attained that status.

The survey, entitled "World Powers in the 21st Century" was conducted by the Gallup and TNS Emnid polling institutes in nine countries -- Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States -- between October and December 2005. Between 1,000 and 1,500 interviews were conducted in each of the countries.

The survey showed the Chinese themselves are confident they will gain influence on the global stage. A full 71 percent of Chinese respondents said their country would be a world power by 2020, compared to 44 percent who see China in that role today.

By comparison, 54 percent of Americans see China as a global power in 2020, up slightly from the 51 percent who already view China that way.

The survey showed that India would also rise as a world power, with 24 percent of respondents assigning it that status in 2020 against only 12 percent today.

Besides the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Japan were expected to decline in status, shedding 11, 6, 5 and 5 percentage points, respectively in the next 15 years.

Of the respondents within those five declining countries, only those in France went against the international trend and said their country would gain in status from now until 2020 -- with 33 percent of French seeing their country as a world power today and 35 percent in 2020.

DIFFERENCES ON MILITARY POWER, TERRORISM

The survey showed that people in the nine countries considered "economic power and potential for growth" as the most important quality for a world power.

There was disagreement on the importance of "military power" as a factor, with a third of respondents in China and the United States listing it as crucial, but only 7 percent in Germany and 16 percent in Japan viewing it as important.

There were also differences in how the countries viewed the main challenges confronting the world. In seven of the nine countries, over 50 percent of respondents listed international terrorism as the chief challenge.

But in China and Brazil less than a third of those surveyed put terrorism in that category. The Chinese listed environmental destruction and scarcity of natural resources as top threats.

In only China and Germany was a majority of the population of the opinion that peace and stability in the world could best be achieved under the leadership of the United Nations.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; germanypoll; wishfulthinking
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1 posted on 06/02/2006 2:38:39 PM PDT by ardmoreokie
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To: ardmoreokie

"In only China and Germany was a majority of the population of the opinion that peace and stability in the world could best be achieved under the leadership of the United Nations."


LOL


2 posted on 06/02/2006 2:40:34 PM PDT by Rick_Michael (Look at profile for current ways to deal with illegals immigration)
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To: ardmoreokie

If Washington continues to give away America, then we'll cease to be a world power long before China gets it's feet under itself.


3 posted on 06/02/2006 2:40:36 PM PDT by mtbopfuyn (I think the border is kind of an artificial barrier - San Antonio councilwoman Patti Radle)
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To: ardmoreokie
In an opinion poll.
4 posted on 06/02/2006 2:41:38 PM PDT by atomicpossum (Replies must follow approved guidelines or you will be kill-filed without appeal.)
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To: mtbopfuyn
If As Washington continues to give away America, then we'll cease to be a world power long before China gets it's feet under itself.

There, fixed it.

5 posted on 06/02/2006 2:43:33 PM PDT by Diogenesis (Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum)
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To: ardmoreokie

Somebody should tell China that you are never really a super power unless you can do that "Force Projection" thing.

Like pick up 250,000 troops, take them half way around the world and sustain them in combat operations.


6 posted on 06/02/2006 2:44:05 PM PDT by PeteB570 (Guns, what real men want for Christmas)
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To: ardmoreokie

Wouldn't China's large population somehow distort the poll results? I guess there is still something to be said (commended?) of national confidence.


7 posted on 06/02/2006 2:45:12 PM PDT by ardmoreokie
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To: ardmoreokie
In China and Brazil less than a third of those surveyed put terrorism in that category. The Chinese listed environmental destruction and scarcity of natural resources as top threats.

The Chinese have got their priorities right. Scarcity of natural resources is a big thing in the future, not illiterate muslims.
8 posted on 06/02/2006 2:49:43 PM PDT by ardmoreokie
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To: PeteB570
Somebody should tell China that you are never really a super power unless you can do that "Force Projection" thing. Like pick up 250,000 troops, take them half way around the world and sustain them in combat operations.

China doesn't want to police the world - it just wants the bits of land and waterways on its periphery. And it is developing a military to do just that and no more. I don't think China will become a superpower in the sense of developing a force to battle Uncle Sam around the globe. It just wants the bits that it feels were wrested from the Chinese empire at the height of its reach.
9 posted on 06/02/2006 2:49:53 PM PDT by Zhang Fei
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To: ardmoreokie

We could argue about the dates, 2020, 2025, 2030, but whatever date you pick, without Clinton it would have been 10-20 years further out.


10 posted on 06/02/2006 2:50:16 PM PDT by Michael.SF. ("I don't think Pat Kennedy is crazy, he's just a drunk" -- G. Gordon Liddy (5-10-06))
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To: ardmoreokie

I would like to know the quality of the sample they used. Plus China will implode well before 2020 - environmental destruction, financial meltdown, insipid corruption - Yeah, they will overtake us. HAHAHA


11 posted on 06/02/2006 2:50:16 PM PDT by steel_resolve (George Bush, why hast thou forsaken me?)
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Comment #12 Removed by Moderator

To: ardmoreokie

yawn... last decade it was Japan... next decade it will be India...

I've heard it all before.


13 posted on 06/02/2006 2:53:03 PM PDT by conservative physics
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To: Michael.SF.
We could argue about the dates, 2020, 2025, 2030, but whatever date you pick, without Clinton it would have been 10-20 years further out.

I'm not so sure about that. Under Bush, China's economy grew at its fastest ever. Under Bush, China has also gained far greater international influence than it could've dreamed during the 1990s. Southeast Asia today is practically vassal states of China, Africa and South America are next.
14 posted on 06/02/2006 2:54:41 PM PDT by ardmoreokie
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To: conservative physics

Japan has a population of just over 100 million on a land the size of California. It has no chance of competing against the US. China is a different animal.


15 posted on 06/02/2006 2:55:42 PM PDT by ardmoreokie
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To: ardmoreokie

I always find it funny that people like such behave in this way:

1) They believe US's absolute power is more than everyone else combined.

2) Due to 1), they believe most US actions must be stopped.

3) But they also believe in 15 years it will be PR China who will call the shots.

4) But the logic of 3 is that US actions will fail because in time, they will be countered by Chinese actions.

5) 4) makes 2) redundant. There is no point to be anti-American now because the US will be nothing more than a glorified Australia by 2020, just like it was in the days when the British Empire was one which the sun never sets.

6) If 5) is true this means these people don't think with reason.


16 posted on 06/02/2006 2:56:46 PM PDT by NZerFromHK (Western MSMs are becoming Chinese media, nothing is true apart from the paper's name and date.)
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To: ardmoreokie

Unfortunately, I believe it.

The United States can't even conduct a war without 1/2 the population and the free press bitching about killing the enemy.


17 posted on 06/02/2006 2:59:08 PM PDT by aShepard (-Maybe replace Kofi with Ray Nagin: Black for Black; Dumb for Dumb; Blame others for Blame others!)
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To: ardmoreokie

[In the survey (poll), based on interviews of 10,250 people worldwide]

In the U.S. the media uses 1000 people to share their opinions to represent their idea of truth, Germany, at least, 10 times that amount to take the pulse of the whole world. How could hundreds of millions of experts possible be wrong, I guess we're DOOMED.


18 posted on 06/02/2006 3:01:21 PM PDT by RetSignman
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To: ardmoreokie
China as a world power ? Sort of.
China as the equivalent to a World War I Great Power? Yep
As the equivalent to the US/USSR superpower? Not even close.
When they can land 500,000 troops anywhere in the world. I'll acknowledge them as a great power. When they go to war with a defeat another world power. Then I'll worry.
19 posted on 06/02/2006 3:08:05 PM PDT by Centurion2000 (The social contract is breaking down.)
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To: RetSignman

GOOD. Let China bail out every country in the world that gets a boo boo from a storm, quake, disease, famine or whatever. Personally, as long as we have our nukes, our soverienity, our strong armed forces and our economic clout, what's the problem. Let them call China first and let us be backup.


20 posted on 06/02/2006 3:18:04 PM PDT by Integrityrocks
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