GOP Fears in a Bellwether Race [Of defeat in California 50th District (the Cunningham seat)]

U..S News and World Report ^ | May 29, 2006 | Washington Whispers

[Torie]

GOP Fears in a Bellwether Race

Staffers from the National Republican Congressional Committee are quietly telling GOP House members to prepare for a possible loss in the June 6 special election to fill the seat of Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for taking bribes. The Southern California district is heavily Republican, but some GOP insiders believe that Democrat Francine Busby will defeat former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray and go on to win a full term in November. More alarming some worry that a Bilbray defeat could signal the GOP's loss of control of the House. The NRCC has already pumped $3.1 million into the race. "It is becoming more and more likely," says one GOP strategist, "that Bilbray will squeak out a victory." But another longtime Republican operative isn't so sure. "This is a district we should never lose," he says. "It's the stink of Cunningham, and the Bush problem."

[Holden Magroin]

The GOP deserves to lose, especially RINOs like Bilbray.

[AntiGuv]

You mean this Research 2000 poll, right? It's got huge undecideds, and in that context Welch v Rainville is obviously close (26% to 17%). I don't have much problem with classifying it Lean D instead of Likely D, but decided to go with Likely D because of fundraising ($738,281 Welch v $333,918 Rainville) and because the macro-political landscape is tilting strongly Dem, as we all know.

[Torie]

And there you have it.

[Rodney King]

LOL. And Bilbray is taking a hard line on immigration, as his signature issue to boot. Why isn't it working?

Perhaps because the voters aren't stupid and they know that Billbray couldn't care less about immigration or any other issue, so long as he gets elected. If he thought full amnesty was a popular position he was gladly champion in it.

[Redbob]

This is a "Bellwhether" of one thing only: that folks don't like having crooks in Congress.

[OKIEDOC]

No you dimwit idiots in the MSM.

The real problem is the sellout by RINO's and Shamnesty.

How in the hell could a so called brilliant Republican campaign leaderhsip have allowed themselves to be painted into a corner by a bunch of ragtag extremist Democrats.

If this race is lost it won't be because Bilbray was a bad candidate, it will be because the arrogant Republican leadership has turned it's back on the base.

Our leadership from Carl Rove to Bill (Frist and Grits will give you the Sh!ts) Frist has capitulated to the wishes of an elitists arrogant minority and are now ready to endanger this country by reaping what they have sown.

Good seeds planted in bad soil will usually produce a good crop of worthless weeds.

Thanks to arrogant RINO Senators John McCain, Lindsay Graham and Specter for all that you did to split the party, oops shatter our trust in doing the right thing.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

The House Republicans are doing a great job and we need to do everything possible to give them a greater majority.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

The House Republicans are doing a great job and we need to do everything possible to give them a greater majority.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

There are more Democrat crooks than Republican.

[AntiGuv]

What made you move Taylor into toss-up by the way?

This article in yesterday's Asheville Citizen-Times: 2nd poll has Shuler in lead.

[calcowgirl]

...you right winger you?

What exactly did you mean by that? I'm a republican and, for the most part, support the republican platform. I would put myself firmly in the center of that platform. You seem to imply that I have some sort of extremist view.

[Torie]

Although Whalen touted the poll as independent, PPP president Dean Debnam acknowledged that he’s a Democrat and “generally only works for Democrats.” Shuler’s campaign did not pay for the poll, though, which has a margin of error of 3.7 percent.

[calcowgirl]

And there you have it.

Have what? I'm not following.

[facedown]

This is a "Bellwhether" of one thing only: that folks don't like having crooks in Congress.

Exactly. Chicago had a Rep representative for one term after Rostenkowski got nailed.

[FlingWingFlyer]

It's tough electing a competent Congress when the voter's number one question is, "What's in it for ME if I vote for you?"

[BW2221]

"SHould anyone care at this point?"

People should care because the results of this race will receive national attention - particularly if the Democrat wins.

I agree with a later poster, that if the GOP loses the 50th, it's likely to lose 40 House seats in November.

[LdSentinal]

If they manage to squeak out the 50th they might only be looking at losing 20 seats.

It's a possibility, but I see this election more akin to the Stephanie Herseth-Larry Deidrich race almost two years in South Dakota for obvious reasons.

[Torie]

I was just jerking your chain a bit. Pay me no mind. But I find that you DO have a certain je ne sais qua in your posting style, along the lines that you consider RINO's specimens of a fecal nature.

[Torie]

What we have is that the "base" will mostly vote for Bilbray. That is not the primary problem here.

[AntiGuv]

I know; I read that part too. That's why I moved it to the low end of Toss Up instead of to Lean D. Here's the actual poll, BTW: Poll shows Congressman Taylor behind in race for US House. I don't see any obvious push myself. All the rest of the figures, including party self-ID (44% R to 37% D) look right to me for this district.