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For your discussion and corrections...

I feel 95% sure we retain Senate majority, 80% sure we have 53-56 seats.

If anyone feels strongly that I have a contested seat marked safe, or vice versa please make your case and we can adjsut accordingly. Also please post links to interesting threads and articles that woudl provide additional insight into these races.

Thanks in advance for the input...

1 posted on 05/22/2006 5:59:22 PM PDT by RobFromGa
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To: Jim Robinson; Jeff Head; Howlin; backhoe; Pokey78; JohnHuang2; Coop; Miss Marple; Dog

for your comments and pings...


2 posted on 05/22/2006 6:00:51 PM PDT by RobFromGa (In decline, the Driveby Media is thrashing about like dinosaurs caught in the tar pits.)
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To: RobFromGa

what happens if Thompson challenges Kohl in Wis?


3 posted on 05/22/2006 6:01:29 PM PDT by uscabjd ( a)
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To: RobFromGa

Steele has no more chance than that? I thought he was a rising star.


6 posted on 05/22/2006 6:03:35 PM PDT by Past Your Eyes (Every time you think, you weaken the nation.)
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To: RobFromGa

Rep. Ed Case (D) 2ndCD, Hawaii has a great chance to unseat Akaka in the primary and actually would be an improvement.


7 posted on 05/22/2006 6:07:05 PM PDT by Kahuna
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To: RobFromGa

Good estimates.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/Election Polls2006.htm


9 posted on 05/22/2006 6:11:18 PM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: RobFromGa

I believe the Santorum/Casey race in Pa. has gone from "doubtful GOP" to "tossup". Most polls show Casey's once double digit lead down to around six points. By November this race just might end up being a big win for GOP.


10 posted on 05/22/2006 6:16:00 PM PDT by Russ
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To: RobFromGa
CA- D- Feinstein safe

Sigh...you're dead on with that pick....and come her next election, Boxer is a safer yet seat. There ARE things that suck about California - mainly that coastal zone IQ thingie.

12 posted on 05/22/2006 6:23:31 PM PDT by ErnBatavia (Meep Meep)
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To: RobFromGa
Ben Nelson as Safe for the Democrats is crazy talk.

It's a Republican state and if there is any hint the Senate might turn over, the Republicans will turn out in droves to run Nelson out of Washington on a rail.

He's up against the son of the TD/Ameritrade founder. Where are the Democrats going to come up with THAT kind of money?

sell drugs? Kick backs? Illegal aliens?

13 posted on 05/22/2006 6:24:36 PM PDT by UNGN (I've been here since '98 but had nothing to say until now)
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To: RobFromGa

Nice job.
Thanks for posting.
Remain a bit more concerned about MO and OH. However, the only info I have comes from the MSM.


15 posted on 05/22/2006 6:27:00 PM PDT by ConservativeGreek
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To: RobFromGa

I just revised my own ratings today, so here goes! Arizona seems to be our biggest disagreement.

Safe Democratic

California
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Vermont (I)*
Wisconsin

Likely Democratic

Connecticut
Nebraska
West Virginia

Lean Democratic

Maryland*
Michigan
Minnesota*
Montana (R)
Pennsylvania (R)
Washington

Toss Up

Missouri (R)
New Jersey (D)*
Ohio (R)

Lean Republican

Arizona
Rhode Island

Likely Republican

Tennessee*
Virginia

Safe Republican

Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Nevada
Texas
Utah
Wyoming


16 posted on 05/22/2006 6:29:47 PM PDT by AntiGuv ("..I do things for political expediency.." - Sen. John McCain on FOX News)
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.


18 posted on 05/22/2006 6:33:45 PM PDT by firewalk
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To: RobFromGa

I'm not going with names, just a hunch:

Fiddy-fiddy.

There's a very good reason Veep Cheney remains so strong.


22 posted on 05/22/2006 6:43:50 PM PDT by Petronski (I just love that woman.)
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To: RobFromGa; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Kuksool; AntiGuv

Here's my list:

SAFE GOP

Indiana (IN)
Maine (ME)
Mississippi
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

LIKELY GOP

Arizona
Nevada
Virginia

LEANING GOP

Tennessee

DOUBTFUL

Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
New Jersey
Ohio
Rhode Island

LEANS DEMOCRAT

Maryland
Pennsylvania
Washington

LIKELY DEMOCRAT

Michigan
Nebraska
West Virginia

SAFE DEMOCRAT

California
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Vermont (liberal Independent)

Subject to change: Wisconsin is doubtful if Tommy Thompson runs, Hawaii Likely Democrat if credible Republican runs, and Connecticut remains complicated, though safe Democrat for now.









26 posted on 05/22/2006 7:07:06 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens commit crimes that Americans won't commit)
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To: RobFromGa

Succinctly and skillfully done. I can't quibble too much. Some of it may be a shade optimistic but that is just the pessimist in me.

The Dems and the media talk a good game about retaking the House or the Senate but neither is going to see the major changes the wet dreamers on the Left keep predicting.

The House is stacked in favor of the incumbent. The Senate is too although I think it may actually be more volatile since most Senators have to go beyond their own safe districts into "hostile" territory.

I haven't given up on Santorum yet and I am hoping, perhaps foolishly, in a Steele upset. I also think Katharine Harris could make a good run in Florida if the party would just get behind her instead of trying to beat her up.

While I have my disagreements with many GOP senators, it is still important to have a majority because Bush may still get another chance or two to put somebody on the Supreme Court and that, in the end, may be the greatest thing he does for the country.


29 posted on 05/22/2006 7:19:02 PM PDT by Tall_Texan (I wish a political party would come along that thinks like I do.)
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To: RobFromGa
Good analysis. The Senate has proved worthless except for approving judicial nominations after every member has spent hours on C-SPAN bloviating. Still, a RINO Senate is at least marginally better than one run by the Dims. I do hope Santorum makes it. He's one of the few with real integrity.

My real hopes lie with the House. That's where real damage can be done if the Dims take over.

42 posted on 05/22/2006 7:57:01 PM PDT by Malesherbes
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To: RobFromGa

89 safe seats out of 100? The senate is either doing a great job or the elections are a farce.


45 posted on 05/22/2006 8:25:41 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: RobFromGa
MD- D- open (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (30% chance GOP)

I think Steele has a good chance, especially if Mfume makes a mess of the Dem primary.

47 posted on 05/22/2006 8:27:01 PM PDT by Rummyfan
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To: RobFromGa

Yogi: "90% of this game is half mental"!


48 posted on 05/22/2006 8:30:02 PM PDT by TRY ONE (NUKE the unborn gay whales!)
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To: RobFromGa

Yogi: "90% of this game is half mental"!


49 posted on 05/22/2006 8:30:06 PM PDT by TRY ONE (NUKE the unborn gay whales!)
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To: All; RobFromGa; Alamo-Girl; Mia T; JLO; Calpernia; kristinn

.

Today BRUCE HERSHENSON stated at the Nixon Presidential Library that till now the most important American Election was the after-Watergate 1974 Election, after President NIXON had been forced to resign for Watergate.

It was immediately after this Democrat Victory that Senator FRANK CHURCH's Investigating Committee started depleting our intelligence community and exposing secret agents and those who cooperated with them abroad ..leading to many deaths.

This Democratic Congress then cut off all funding for the Free South Vietnamese to fight for their own Freedom with, 2 1/2 years before the Vietnam War's end. This as the Communist Soviet Union gave $6 Billion in Military aid to the Communist North for its final solution in the South. Resulting in millions of S.E. Asian deaths afterwards.

The Democrats are now doing all they can to duplicate that devasting 1974 Election Victory in Election year 2006 ..with the death of millions again in their cards.

The Enemy is now Within...
...and always has been.

They must be STOPPED this time, or else...

http://www.Freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1308949/posts



.


54 posted on 05/22/2006 9:14:27 PM PDT by ALOHA RONNIE ("ALOHA RONNIE" Guyer/Veteran-"WE WERE SOLDIERS" Battle of IA DRANG-1965 http://www.lzxray.com)
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