Posted on 05/22/2006 5:59:20 PM PDT by RobFromGa
I feel 95% sure we retain Senate majority, 80% sure we have 53-56 seats.
If anyone feels strongly that I have a contested seat marked safe, or vice versa please make your case and we can adjsut accordingly. Also please post links to interesting threads and articles that woudl provide additional insight into these races.
Thanks in advance for the input...
for your comments and pings...
what happens if Thompson challenges Kohl in Wis?
You tell me, it puts it in play, not sure the percentage chance GOP-- 50%?
Is that Conrad Burns in MT? If so, historically, he's very conservative and will accordingly.
Steele has no more chance than that? I thought he was a rising star.
Rep. Ed Case (D) 2ndCD, Hawaii has a great chance to unseat Akaka in the primary and actually would be an improvement.
Who do you predict for Majority Leader (GOP)?
I'd love to see Tom Colburn or Jeff Sessions, but that won't happen.
Good estimates.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/Election Polls2006.htm
I believe the Santorum/Casey race in Pa. has gone from "doubtful GOP" to "tossup". Most polls show Casey's once double digit lead down to around six points. By November this race just might end up being a big win for GOP.
I got a feeling that Santorum and DeWine will retain their seats in the Senate and the GOP will gain 1 or two seats.
Sigh...you're dead on with that pick....and come her next election, Boxer is a safer yet seat. There ARE things that suck about California - mainly that coastal zone IQ thingie.
It's a Republican state and if there is any hint the Senate might turn over, the Republicans will turn out in droves to run Nelson out of Washington on a rail.
He's up against the son of the TD/Ameritrade founder. Where are the Democrats going to come up with THAT kind of money?
sell drugs? Kick backs? Illegal aliens?
The thing to try to watch is the black Republican candidates in the mid Atlantic states. Blackwell polls 50% in black communties in OH. Will this pull along neighboring state blacks to vote Republican too for the first time in a long time? It may produce a regional shift, but it will be going on under the radar. Maryland has already voted Steele statewide.
Nice job.
Thanks for posting.
Remain a bit more concerned about MO and OH. However, the only info I have comes from the MSM.
I just revised my own ratings today, so here goes! Arizona seems to be our biggest disagreement.
Safe Democratic
California
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Vermont (I)*
Wisconsin
Likely Democratic
Connecticut
Nebraska
West Virginia
Lean Democratic
Maryland*
Michigan
Minnesota*
Montana (R)
Pennsylvania (R)
Washington
Toss Up
Missouri (R)
New Jersey (D)*
Ohio (R)
Lean Republican
Arizona
Rhode Island
Likely Republican
Tennessee*
Virginia
Safe Republican
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Nevada
Texas
Utah
Wyoming
..it's sad to see local R candidates demagogue the immigration issue--as if there will ever be a Republican majority of anything in California again...
.
Ohio won't be a tossup for the Senate seat.
Maybe not, but it will be so long as Brown is leading in the latest poll.
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