Water rises in the Lower Ninth Ward of New Orleans in the file photo from Friday, Sept. 23. 2005. Hurricane Rita brought more high winds and tides into the New Orleans area. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, FILE)
Posted on 05/22/2006 2:05:03 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
MIAMI - A hectic, above-normal tropical storm season could produce between four and six major hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico this year, but conditions don't appear ripe for a repeat of 2005's record activity, the National Hurricane Center predicted Monday.
There will be up to 16 named storms, the center predicted, which would be significantly less than last year's record 28. Still, people in coastal regions should prepare for the possibility of major storms, said Max Mayfield, the National Hurricane Center director.
"One hurricane hitting where you live is enough to make it a bad season," Mayfield told reporters.
Last year, officials predicted 12 to 15 tropical storms, seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes, and three to five of those hurricanes being major, with winds of at least 111 mph.
But the season turned out to be much busier, breaking records that had stood since 1851. Last season there were 15 hurricanes, seven of which were Category 3 or higher.
In the center's detailed 2006 prediction report, meteorologists said water in the Atlantic is not as warm as it was at this stage in 2005. Warm water is a key fuel for hurricane development.
Also, it is not clear whether atmospheric conditions that helped produce the 2005 storms will repeat again this year, forecasters said. And, it appears that the Pacific Ocean water conditions known as El Nino and La Nina will not have any impact on the Atlantic hurricane season this year, forecasters said.
Last month, Colorado State University forecasters issued a similar forecast, predicting up to 17 named storms. The forecast of William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach called for nine hurricanes, five of them intense.
The Atlantic seasons were relatively mild from the 1970s through 1994. Since then, all but two years have been above normal. Experts say the world is in the midst of a 20-year-cycle that will continue to bring strong storms.
Between 1995 and 2005, the Atlantic season has averaged 15 named storms, just over eight named hurricanes and four major hurricanes, according to the National Hurricane Center. Before this latest above-normal cycle, from 1971 to 1994, there were an average of 8.5 named storms, five hurricanes and just over one major hurricane.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. The names chosen for 2006 storms are: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie and William.
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On the Net:
National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane season could match '05: UN (Ruh Rho!) ^
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1588738/posts
Posted by numberonepal
On News/Activism ^ 03/02/2006 12:51:27 PM PST · 50 replies · 709+ views
Reuters ^ | 03/02/06 | Mica Rosenberg
GUATEMALA CITY (Reuters) - This year's hurricane season could match the record breaking destruction caused by storms in 2005, the United Nations warned. In 2005, an unprecedented 27 tropical storms, 15 of which became full-blown hurricanes, battered Central America and the U.S. Gulf coast, killing more than 3,000 people and causing tens of billions of dollars in damage. "We have reason to fear that 2006 could be as bad as 2005," Jan Egeland, the undersecretary general for humanitarian affairs who coordinates U.N. emergency relief, told Reuters on Wednesday. "We have had a dramatic increase in climate related natural disasters and...
"One hurricane hitting where you live is enough to make it a bad season," Mayfield told reporters.
If NOLA gets hit again, that area will be nothing more than Chocolate Yoohoo.
BWHAHAHAHAHAH!
I find it curious that meterologists can't get our local forecast right from day to day -- yet these "experts" can predict what will happen for a whole season.
What it all comes down to is, for all their fancy technical equipment and what have you, these guys don't really know what will happen. I get a more accurate forecast by sticking my wet finger out the window, or asking my neighbor if her arthritis is acting up.
I noticed that the promo poster for Al Gore's new Global Warming movie shows smokestack emissions swirling into a hurricane. I laughed - so this is how they are marketing "An Inconvenient Truth"? With a bald-faced lie? The experts said there was no link between GW and hurricanes, right? I hope this forecast for 2006 is correct.
"I find it curious that meterologists can't get our local forecast right from day to day -- yet these "experts" can predict what will happen for a whole season. "
Trends are easier than detailed predictions. I guarantee it will rain within the next month here in Ohio. I can't tell you what day though.
These guys aren't sticking their necks out very far. It's a safe bet that if last year was a bad year, this one won't match it.
Hurricanes don't operate as much on heat as they do temperature differences.
If you think of a battery with its plus and minus terminals,and compare heat as + and cold as -, what happens when the negative (cold) decreases due to warming.
It would be like in your car battery where you have 12 volts (potential difference) between the two terminals. Then suppose you were able to make the negative part of the battery less negative (warming to the north, where it's supposed to happen). When you do that, it decreases the voltage (potential difference between the plus and minus and you weaken the system.
The pitiful thing is that most people in meteorology (who don't work under liberal foundation grants) know this and will admit it. I can't figure out why they let the liberals and the media get away with this.
If the airmass is uniformly warm, (ballyhooed prediction for global warming) no convection can take place. No convection = no storm.
The "forecasts" a year or so ago were not predicting record activity for '05 either, but then we got new records...
For named storms: December 3 '04 - 11 storms
April 1 - 13 storms
May 31 - 15 storms
Actual - 23 storms.
For net season activity: December 3 '04 - 115%
April 1 - 135%
May 31 - 170%
Actual - 239%
So, for 2006 you can read the forecasts, but as the saying goes: YMMV (Your Mileage May Vary)
In the center's detailed 2006 prediction report, meteorologists said water in the Atlantic is not as warm as it was at this stage in 2005. Warm water is a key fuel for hurricane development
This wont be repeated much so remember it
It has more to do with the fact I am returning to Florida, after a two year absence.
Florida will enjoy a relatively mild season, overall.
North Carolina and a few North Eastern states OTOH, will suffer this year.
I do not particularly wish NC to suffer, but I advise everyone here to pay very close attention to storm preparations and advisory warnings, and react with a heightened sense of urgency.
Not really my fault, but apologies tendered in advance anyways, FWIW.
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