If NOLA gets hit again, that area will be nothing more than Chocolate Yoohoo.
I find it curious that meterologists can't get our local forecast right from day to day -- yet these "experts" can predict what will happen for a whole season.
What it all comes down to is, for all their fancy technical equipment and what have you, these guys don't really know what will happen. I get a more accurate forecast by sticking my wet finger out the window, or asking my neighbor if her arthritis is acting up.
I noticed that the promo poster for Al Gore's new Global Warming movie shows smokestack emissions swirling into a hurricane. I laughed - so this is how they are marketing "An Inconvenient Truth"? With a bald-faced lie? The experts said there was no link between GW and hurricanes, right? I hope this forecast for 2006 is correct.
These guys aren't sticking their necks out very far. It's a safe bet that if last year was a bad year, this one won't match it.
Hurricanes don't operate as much on heat as they do temperature differences.
If you think of a battery with its plus and minus terminals,and compare heat as + and cold as -, what happens when the negative (cold) decreases due to warming.
It would be like in your car battery where you have 12 volts (potential difference) between the two terminals. Then suppose you were able to make the negative part of the battery less negative (warming to the north, where it's supposed to happen). When you do that, it decreases the voltage (potential difference between the plus and minus and you weaken the system.
The pitiful thing is that most people in meteorology (who don't work under liberal foundation grants) know this and will admit it. I can't figure out why they let the liberals and the media get away with this.
If the airmass is uniformly warm, (ballyhooed prediction for global warming) no convection can take place. No convection = no storm.
The "forecasts" a year or so ago were not predicting record activity for '05 either, but then we got new records...