Conservative Gaining in Mexican Race

AP on Yahoo ^ | 5/3/06 | Mark Stevenson - ap

[NormsRevenge]

MEXICO CITY - The leftist former front-runner in this nation's presidential race is watching his advantage crumble to the conservative ruling-party candidate, raising doubts that Mexico will be the latest Latin America nation to veer to the left.

Two months before the election, a series of polls show a steady decline for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. The former Mexico City mayor is idolized by many poor Mexicans and feared by many of the rich, who worry he would set Mexico on the anti-free market path of Venezuela and Bolivia.

Poll after recent poll has shown Lopez Obrador's lead declining or disappearing. One published Wednesday by the newspaper Reforma showed him trailing ruling-party candidate Felipe Calderon 40 percent to 33 percent — the first time a major poll has shown somebody with a statistically significant lead over Lopez Obrador. Roberto Madrazo, of the former ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, was third, with 22 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points.

In March, Lopez Obrador led Calderon 41 percent to 31 percent.

The former Mexico City mayor is blaming the media and pollsters for the slide.

But many analysts say Lopez Obrador's worst enemy is his confrontational, stubborn nature — which may have led him to skip a nationally televised April 25 debate, which the other candidates attended.

Lopez Obrador's justification for missing the debate was that he didn't want to interrupt a whistle-stop campaign, where he is often greeted like a conquering hero and draped with flower garlands.

"I don't know if it's his personality, or what," said Carlos Cruz, a 23-year university student eating a sandwich at a downtown stand Wednesday. "But he's not very humble. He seems arrogant, domineering."

Cruz looks like a logical Lopez Obrador supporter, wearing a ponytail, black T-shirt and jeans. But he doesn't think the leftist is going to win.

"It's not so much Calderon's gain in the polls, as it was his (Lopez Obrador's) absence at the debate," he said.

The day after the debate, Lopez Obrador reacted sardonically to a poll showing him falling slightly behind Calderon, who represents President Vicente Fox's National Action Party.

"Ha, ha, ha, ha. I'd like to see someone who actually believes their polls," Lopez Obrador told supporters.

While the news has gotten worse, Lopez Obrador's response has remained as defiant, even angry, as ever.

"Their media campaign and their publishing rigged polls is not going to work," he told supporters Tuesday. "I am sure we're heading for victory."

National Action has spent heavily on advertisements depicting Lopez Obrador as a radical and "a danger to Mexico." Lopez Obrador has seemingly played into that, publicly telling Fox to "shut up," and referring to the president and other critics as "chachalacas," notoriously noisy birds.

Lopez Obrador has "been digging his grave with his tongue," said George Grayson, a Mexico expert at the College of William & Mary.

"He's getting very testy, because a messiah is supposed to be adored by the people," Grayson said. "He can't reconcile the fact that he's the redeemer for the Mexican masses with the fact that he's either running neck-and-neck or behind."

Lopez Obrador still has a core of dedicated, almost adoring followers.

"They can say whatever they want, they're not going to change my mind. I like him. I'm voting for Lopez Obrador," said Maria Felix Osorio, 36, an employee at a Mexico City clothing store.

The leftist could rebound in the polls in the second debate, scheduled for June 6, which he has promised to attend.

[Thunder90]

We should do everything in our power to keep AMLO out of power.


The problem is that Hugo Chavez came from behind in Venezuela to win in 1998, and with Chavez's funding combined with immigration reform in the US, don't count orbidor out.

[NormsRevenge]

The three top Mexican presidential candidates, Felipe Calderon of the National Action Party (PAN), left, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), center, and Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), right, are seen in this composite of file photos taken in Dec. 2005 in Mexico City, Mexico. A poll published on Wednesday May 3, 2006 showed Mexico's conservative ruling-party candidate Calderon, with his first significant lead over Lopez Obrador, the leftist rival he once trailed by as much as 10 points ahead of July's presidential election. Madrazo remained in third place with 22 percent. (AP Photo/Dario Lopez-MIlls, left and center, Marco Ugarte, right)

[rovenstinez]

Calderon held his ground in the National Debate on TV. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was a no show, this really hurt his lead.

[NormsRevenge]

Hugo has way too much money at his disposal of late.. Fidel Jr.

It was Obrador's to lose from the beginning..

Where is McCain or Jimmy Carter when ya need 'em?

[NormsRevenge]

The leader of the Zapatista National Libertation Army (EZLN), Sub Comandante Marcos speaks to students during a rally on the campus of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), Tuesday, May 2, 2006. Marcos is on a six month tour of Mexico, which the Zapatistas have dubbed 'the other campaign' which coincides with the run up to Mexican presidential elections in July. (AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo)

[NormsRevenge]

A demonstrator protests outside where the debate between the candidates for the presidency of Mexico is being held as police in riot gear stand guard, in Mexico City, Tuesday, April 25, 2006. (AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo)

[Rick_Michael]

If they consider getting a socialists as a president, we'll see twice as many people flowing through our border. How can so many people be politically retarded?

[Bushbot2006]

"We should do everything in our power to keep AMLO out of power."

---

I'm sorry but the Conservatives in Mexico are very corrupt as it is in this Country.

This mindless neo-con mindset some of you have need adjustment because the best thing for Mexico at this point is for a Socialist Party to take over. That may be the only chance they have of ending corruption and crime and stop this mad dash for our border.

I no longer care about this mindless, lunatic neo-con assumption that all socialism is evil because it simply is.
There's a reason why these people are so desperate to find an answer to their problems and Socialism in South America maybe the only way to quell the Masses down there and if it is, so be it, as long as they no longer have the need to crash are border.

[corbe]

buh buy

[discostu]

Socialists were in charge of Mexico for most of the 20th century, if they had the ability to fix the place it would have been fixed by now.

[Thunder90]

[cll]

ib4tz?!

[driftless]

Leftism/Marxism is always an easy sell to the ignorati. "See that big pile of wealth sitting over there by itself which the rich just take (and never create) for themselves. I'll go get it for you and redistribute all of it". The poor always fall for it. And they always end up poorer than before.

[driftless]

"won't...crash our border"

Ha ha, good one. What a joker you are. What a great sense of sarcasm you have. I think.

[Draco]

As someone daily in Mexico I can tell you socialism is not the panacea you believe it to be. The actual party of corruption is the PRI, the party that ruled Mexico since the 1920s. It was socialistic and despotic. PAN (the Mexican version of conservatism) is a relative new-comer. It wasn't in existence or power long enough to have the power you ascribe to it.

Mexico is oil rich. Yet gas is nearly 300 pesos per liter. The exchange rate is about 10.8 pesos to the dollar. And there are more than three liters to the gallon. Mexicans pay far more for gas than US citizens. Why? Socialism: state owned oil company controls all production and distribution. The company? Pemex.

Any facts to prove your point?

[Draco]

As someone daily in Mexico I can tell you socialism is not the panacea you believe it to be. The actual party of corruption is the PRI, the party that ruled Mexico since the 1920s. It was socialistic and despotic. PAN (the Mexican version of conservatism) is a relative new-comer. It wasn't in existence or power long enough to have the power you ascribe to it.

Mexico is oil rich. Yet gas is nearly 300 pesos per liter. The exchange rate is about 10.8 pesos to the dollar. And there are more than three liters to the gallon. Mexicans pay far more for gas than US citizens. Why? Socialism: state owned oil company controls all production and distribution. The company? Pemex.

Any facts to prove your point?

[Bushbot2006]

As someone daily in Mexico I can tell you socialism is not the panacea you believe it to be. The actual party of corruption is the PRI, the party that ruled Mexico since the 1920s. It was socialistic and despotic. PAN (the Mexican version of conservatism) is a relative new-comer. It wasn't in existence or power long enough to have the power you ascribe to it.

---

Again, your focus is a neo-con's reflective,Pavlovian Dog's reaction socialism. My Focus isn't on socialism per say.

Look, the main problem has to do with corruption and crime as well as host of other problems like systematic racism.

Mexican Oligarchy will never help their own people. Socialism may be the only way of buying time for the Mexican government while they figure out a way out of their mess. They have to learn how to crawl before they learn how to walk.

[Bushbot2006]

Look,

I'm NOT saying Socialism is a long term solution, but desperate problem requires desperate solutions.

[Dakara Yakah]

IB4TZ!