Posted on 05/02/2006 9:34:31 PM PDT by Congressman Billybob
This is the Fifth and Final - for now - Report on the Campaign for the 11th District in NC. The eight-term Congressman, Charles Taylor, has defeated me for the nomination of the Republican Party. However, Mr. Taylor's career as a Member of Congress is now over.
That paradoxical conclusion is not a matter of my opinion. It is based on observations of lifelong residents in western Carolina who've been active in politics most of their adult lives. Consider the parameters of this race:
Charles Taylor is a long term incumbent who worked his way up the ladder to a position on the Appropriations Committee of the House. His newsletters back to the District for years have featured the amounts of money garnered for various entities and local governments. Mr. Taylor had the apparent support of every Republican elected official in western Carolina. And he had effectively unlimited funds, in light of the fact that he loaned his own campaign slightly less than $990,000 in the last election cycle to have sufficient funds to win. All that loaned money has since been repaid to Mr. Taylor from on-going fundraising, so he is in a position to do the same thing in this election year.
In addition, Mr., Taylor had both a professional staff as a Member of Congress, and a volunteer staff of outsiders, to assist him in campaigning as he approached the primary. According to his Federal Election Commission filings, Mr. Taylor spent $255,000 before the primary election.
By contrast, I had no professional staff, and a very limited volunteer staff. I have never held any public elective office. My FEC filings show I spent less than $24,000, prior to this election.
You can understand why knowledgeable political observers told me I'd be fortunate to break 10% of the total vote in the Republican primary. One observer stated that if I "did take 20%, Taylor would be finished as a viable candidate for re-election." The total vote in the Republican primary was 32,845 as of 12:16 a.m., Wednesday. I received 19.8% of that vote. The results have been fairly consistent among the 15 counties in the District, and over time since first votes were reported at 8:08 pm yesterday. So, this result should hold up as the remaining votes in the District are reported.
In a split District where a winning Republican has to hold his base, more than break even among independents, and draw a few votes from conservative Democrats, Taylor's 20% leakage against me in the primary tells the local experts that Taylor cannot win the general election this year.
The first independent poll of the 11th District, probably by the Asheville Citizen-Times, will measure the race between Mr. Taylor and Heath Shuler, a one-time football player and first time candidate for public office, who won the Democrat primary today. If that poll, six months before the election, shows Shuler significantly ahead, then the conclusions of the experts who talked to me will be confirmed.
The bottom line has turned out as I described in my Fifth Report on the Campaign, before the primary. Either Congressman Taylor will conclude that he cannot win the general election this year and withdraw -- as Congressman DeLay did in Texas this year. Or, the leaders of the Republican Party, both locally and nationally, will compel Taylor to withdraw -- as Senator Torricelli was forced to do in New Jersey in 2006. This is NOT a year in which the Republicans can afford to throw away a seat in Congress because their current nominee cannot recognize defeat staring him in the face.
So, my campaign will not end at this point. It will go into semi-hibernation until such time as the Republican nomination in this District needs to be filled by the decision of the 11th District Republican Committee.
I hope that all of you are gratified by the results obtained so far, on the resources and skills available. I hope you will support me in the quiet effort to be prepared, in case there's a change in the Republican nomination. And I hope you will support me again, should I be the new Republican nominee.
I look forward to hearing your thoughts on this primary, and possibilities beyond that.
John
John / Billybob
I wish you well in future endeavors.
I think you're right about Charlie Taylor being finished. My hope is that he drops out of the race. If he does that, how would the GOP nominee be chosen?
Congrats to you for having the fortitude to run against one of the Hill Appropriators (read: pork addicts). And best of luck in the future.
Cheers.
Why not accept your defeat gracefully and endorse the winner?
Keep going of course! You can move here and I will gladly vote for you! :-)
"I received 19.8% of that vote."
Against an intrenched incumbent, that's great.
Congratulations my friend. We need more Americans like you. Try again.
no dems
I see. Well you failed to get 80% of the primary votes so I am wondering why you feel your 20% would translate to victory in the general election. Then again, Free Republic is not making much sense lately so I guess hope springs eternal.
No matter what happens in the future, you can always hold yourself in the knowledge that when others pointed fingers, complained, whined and criticized, YOU DID SOMETHING.
You are a man of ACTION, and win or lose, that sets you apart from the herd. Respect is worth a lot more than love, and my respect you have.
You may be right but I am still wondering how you would parlay 20% into 51% in November. You are also close to accusing Tom Delay of being guilty of corruption which is over the line in my opinion.
Well done John! A win, of course, would have been the preferred outcome, but against an incumbent who has held office for years and won multiple elections you made significant inroads and positioned yourself well for the future. As you say, the future may come sooner than later. Congratulations, my hat is off to you.
You are of course free to not answer the above question, or deflect it, but I thought I should ask, so that you have something on the record, as a response, or non response.
Sorry, Billybob, but 20% leakage is nothing for an incumbent in a primary. Anyone can get 20 percent, just look at the no-namers who run against other House incumbents.
If you'd gotten 35 percent or more, then I'd be interested. Taylor's got a tough race ahead, but I don't think your showing is particularly discouraging for him.
Let me see if I understand this reasoning.
A guy who gets 80% of the GOP primary vote is going to be asked to step down so a guy who got 20% of the GOP Primary vote can take his place. And this 20% guy is supposed to beat the Democrat who won his primary?
What am I missing?
Nifong moves into the district.
I wish you well in your future endeavors.
Although I was not in your district, and soon will leave this state entirely, I hope you will continue in your efforts to return elected officials to their primary duty, which is representational government, elected by and for individuals, not industries, groups, or various unions.
I highly value your thoughtful opinions and comments on issues that affect us all, as individuals.
I did so before I moved to NC, and will continue to do so when I am "back home".
For what it's worth, IMHO, we all desperately need people like you to continue to seek public office.
Please don't stop trying!
Pay no attention to the scoffers, John. You took twenty percent away from him, an incumbent, with a fraction of the money he had available. He very well could drop out, or be 'asked' to. If the Republican party at the state and national level has a shred political acumen left, they would take a long look at this race.
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