Posted on 04/24/2006 8:38:45 AM PDT by Reagan Man
With President Bush's popularity at an all-time low, hovering in the mid-30s in most national surveys, and the conservative base of the Republican Party increasingly dismayed with the President's performance on issues such as runaway government spending and immigration "reform," chances are increasing that the Democrats could eke out a majority in the House of Representatives in the elections this fall.
Four months ago, I concluded that there were 20 Republican House seats that were vulnerable to Democratic takeover, now I believe that there are 30. To achieve a majority, the Democrats would need to win a net gain of 15.
(The present makeup of the House is 232 Republicans, 200 Democrats, and one independent who votes with Democrats for control. There are also two vacancies -- the seat of former Republican Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham of California who was convicted of bribery and that of former New Jersey Democratic Rep. Robert Menendez, who was named to a U.S. Senate vacancy.)
"If the President's job rating is above 50%, his party tends to suffer only narrow losses or even, as in 1934 and 1998 -- and almost in 1962 -- makes gains," wrote veteran political prognosticator Michael Barone last week of midterm elections. "If the President's job rating is significantly under 50%, his party tends to lose lots of seats."
Bernadette Budde, who has been monitoring elections for the Business and Industry Political Action Committee for more than 30 years, told me two months ago that in the current political climate "the fickle finger of fate could point to upsets in a lot of districts the so-called experts are writing off as 'safe.'" At a breakfast two weeks ago, when I asked Budde whether the situation had gotten better or worse, she quickly replied: "Worse. The fickle finger of fate is now attached to a palsied brain."
Here is a summary of the 30 Republican House districts that have at least a fair chance of going Democratic in November:
Arizona's 5th and 8th: Republican former State House Whip Randy Graf, who drew 43% against veteran Rep. Jim Kolbe (R.-Ariz.) in the 2004 primary, is the likely GOP nominee for the Tucson-area 8th District seat Kolbe is relinquishing. But Graf's pro-life and anti-illegal immigration views do not sit well with old foe Kolbe and his allies, so the chances of Democratic State Sen. Gabriel Gifford's picking up the seat have improved. In the 5th District, the Democratic candidate, former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell, may give a tough fight to Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth, who has broken with the Bush Administration on immigration.
California's 4th and 50th: Heightened publicity about the ties between Republican Rep. John Doolittle and his wife and convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff has put Doolittle's re-election to the 4th District seat in jeopardy. In the disgraced Cunningham's 50th District, Democrat Francine Busby topped the all-candidate field with 44% of the vote in the first voting round and is even money to win the special election over moderate former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray in June.
Colorado's 7th: Republican Rep. Bob Beauprez narrowly won this suburban Denver district in the last two cycles. But with Beauprez running for governor, Democrats feel confident of picking up a district carried by Al Gore and John Kerry.
Connecticut's 2nd, 4th and 5th: Republican Rep. Rob Simmons has had difficult reelection runs since he won the 2nd District in the closest House race in the nation in 2000. Democrats scored well in recruiting former Westport First Selectman Diane Farrell to take on GOP Rep. Chris Shays in the 4th and State Sen. Christopher Murphy to oppose veteran Rep. Nancy Johnson in the 5th.
Florida's 22nd: Long-time Republican Rep. Clay Shaw, who beat lung cancer, has had stiff challenges in his last three campaigns and now faces Democratic State Sen. Ron Klein.
Illinois' 6th: With Republican Rep. Henry Hyde retiring from this suburban Chicago District, Democrats are waging a well-funded race against his protégé, State Sen. Pete Roskam. The candidacy of Iraqi War veteran Tammy Duckworth is generating nationwide Democratic funding and publicity.
Indiana's 2nd, 8th and 9th: Hoosier Democrats have major league contenders against GOP Representatives John Hostettler (8th) and Mike Sodrel (9th) in Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (8th) and former Rep. Baron Hill (9th). Two-term Republican Rep. Chris Chocola is still on the GOP "watch list" for the GOP in the South Bend-area 2nd District.
Iowa's 1st: Republicans in the Waterloo-Davenport district are increasingly worried that heated competition for nomination to succeed Rep. Jim Nussle (now the likely GOP candidate for governor) will benefit the probable Democratic candidate, 2004 nominee Bill Gluba.
Kentucky's 3rd: After 12 years in office, Republican Anne Northup is still a regular Democratic target in her Louisville district. This year, Democrats have an unusually strong nominee in Iraqi veteran Andrew Horne.
Minnesota's 6th: Democrat Patty Wetterling, who drew 45% of the vote against Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy here in 2004, has recently dropped from the Senate race for another run in the 6th, which Kennedy is leaving to run for the Senate himself. A districtwide convention next month will choose among four GOPers running to succeed Kennedy.
Nevada's 3rd: Two-term GOP Rep. Jon Porter is still a top Democratic target in his Las Vegas-area district and faces a strong challenge from former staffer for Sen. Harry Reid (D.) Tessa Haffen.
New Hampshire's 2nd: Democrats recruited well-known prosecutor Paul Hodes to oppose moderate GOP Rep. Charles Bass in this Concord-area district.
New Mexico's 1st and 2nd: Republican Representatives Heather Wilson in the1st District (Albuquerque) and Steve Pearce in the 2nd District (Roswell) are still major Democratic targets. Wilson, who always has tight races, faces an especially strong foe in State Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid.
New York's 24th: With veteran liberal Republican Rep. Sherwood Boehlert retiring after 24 years, the GOP is likely to nominate conservative State Sen. Raymond Meier. Democrats smell victory in this now open district. Their first heavyweight nominee in recent years is likely to be Utica District Attorney Michael Arcuri.
North Carolina's 11th: National Democrats recruited onetime Washington Redskins quarterback Heath Shuler to take on GOP Rep. Charles Taylor.
Ohio's 1st, 15th and 18th: With major scandal surrounding statehouse Republicans, Democrats anticipate a bonanza year in the state that clinched re-election for George W. Bush. Democrats recruited top opponents to face Republican Representatives Steve Chabot (1st), Deborah Pryce (15th), and Bob Ney (18th). Ney is the most high-profile lawmaker linked to Jack Abramoff.
Pennsylvania's 6th, 8th and 10th: With GOP Sen. Rick Santorum trailing for re-election and Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell headed for a big re-election, Democrats have recruited strong contenders in marginal districts held by Republicans: Law Professor Lois Murphy against Rep. Jim Gerlach (6th) and Iraqi veteran Patrick Murphy against Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick (8th). The fate of GOP Rep. Don Sherwood (10th), who has admitted an extramarital affair, is uncertain.
Virginia's 2nd: Democratic Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam, scion of one of his hometown's best-known families, is locked in a tight race with freshman GOP Rep. Thelma Drake.
Washington's 8th: In winning his first term in 2004, Republican Rep. David Reichert had an unusually close race in this suburban Seattle-based district. Democrats now have a well-funded candidate in former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner.
The fate of GOP Rep. Don Sherwood (10th), who has admitted an extramarital affair, is uncertain.
As a Pennsylvanian, this is rather upsetting...actually this is the first I have heard. He is not in my district so not too concerned, but for Pennsylvania GOP, I don't like any negativity especially this year.
Spot on, s.
I think Kellam (D) will probably unseat Drake(R) in VA #2. He is quite popular in Va. Beach and runs as a centrist. The only fly in the ointment for him is that the moveon.org crowd has been trashing Drake in TV ads for the past couple of months, and it wouldn't suprise me to see the ads backfire.
I voted for Kellam when he ran for re-election for Commissioner of Revenue. He made it incredibly easy to appeal car tax assessments. I had the tax on my pickup truck totally written off six straight years and our last car was written off once (he actually championed fmr. Gov. Gilmore's desire to completely scrap the car tax). He also got rid of the city decals (even though we still had to pay the fee through our state registration). He is one of the few politicians that I felt had earned my vote.
That said, I hope I am wrong and Drake gets re-elected. She has came out strong on national defense and is a strong fiscal conservative.
Snardius,
I would respectfully disagree with you. It takes courage, patriotism and integrity to make your voice heard by the leadership, despite the consequences (such as the insults of those who advocate supporting the party at all costs). If the base doesn't hold Republican leadership accountable, who will?
Let me make this clear: I do not want to see the Republicans lose control of the House, Senate or White House. I do want them to stay true to their ideals. I want them to be statesmen and leaders, not politicians. I want them to stick to their principles instead of doing or saying whatever is politically expedient. That's what I want, and I honestly don't think it's unreasonable or too much to ask for.
If and when this happens, look for *impeachment proceedings* to begin, right away. Guarranteed.
For some reason, I think that this won't happen. Maybe censure, but I think that if they win the House, they are going to be on their best behavior until 08...after than all out war!
Cool... what's your assessment of his popularity, then?
That's a first. In seven years, no one has ever tried to PC Mau Mau me on this board. Stick it. It a waste of your time.
If President Bush nominates either man, we'll see whether the seven RINOs in the Gang of 14 will do the honorable thing or not. If they do, the filibuster of judicial nominations will disappear in a puff of smoke. If not, then our course will be obvious, and, ultimately, the Republican Party will be spoken of in the past tense.It's that serious.
Your latest pet issue becomes the most "serious" issue.
Sorry. I have my own list of priorities that does not depend on your latest temper tantrum.
If you want to joint the Constitution Party, or if you have already joined it, you are free to post on the Constitution Party board.
I'm not going anywhere. I will stay a Republican, and I will fight to move my party to right.
...thank you, Muleteam1!
I have a real problem with MY money going to fund welfare and education for somebody else's "anchor baby".
I have a real problem with taking my bleeding child to the emergency room and being forced to wait while all the illegals have their colds and allergies treated free of charge.
I have a real problem with being too scared to walk in my own city because of "day workers" lurking on every corner.
I notice you didn't explain what you meant by the "Rain Man brigade" phrase. Care to take this opportunity to do so?
By the way, it wasn't my intent to "PC Mau Mau" you. I was just trying to point out that your rhetoric obscured your point--it was insulting, not clever or witty (which is most likely what you were trying to be).
This is NOT a "Republican" website.
The last elections in Tucson brought victory to every Dem running. AZ ain't as red as it used to be.
And what were Bush's poll numbers leading up to the 2004 elections when these House representatives seats last went to the GOP? Weren't the MSM calling his poll numbers low as dirt back then too?
(apologies to Winston Churchill)
- John
Thx, two great minds think alike, Beagle8U! Muleteam1 did a re-write and I have a new tagline, ain't it great?
I'm glad SOMEBODY said that.
This is not an anti-Republican website either.
This is not a Constitution Party website either.
We fight for the most conservative candidate out there, and usually, that means the Republican candidate.
Just a reminder: Free Republic is a conservative site
Posted on 04/11/2006 3:33:35 AM PDT by Jim RobinsonIt's true that the illegal immigration issue is very discouraging, and I don't know if anyone has a solution that will appeal to conservatives and yet manage to get by Democrat obstructionism, ie, a filibuster, but I don't see that as any reason to give up everything. We should not allow it to rip us apart and destroy the movement. We fight on.
We hold the majority. We continue working as hard as we possibly can to elect as many conservatives as we possibly can. We build a conservative majority that can overcome the Democrats and the RINOs. We do not willingly give up any seats to Democrats. We add seats. Preferably, conservative seats.
Nor do I...but I don't see how helping D's get elected gets you what you want. If your rep isn't listening, run another R against him/her in the primary.
And asking a politician to forgo political expediency for principle is a fantasy...
Oh I expect the gas bubble to collapse before the election, but if it doesn't the party in power (republicans) will pay a very very high price... all its going to take for gas prices to fall is for Bush to announce an investigation into the oil futures market and it will fall by 1/3 nearly overnight.
Immigration, getting an earful and doing something about it are 2 different things.
I said IF NOTHING CHANGES.... hopefully the republicans will return to small government, fiscal responsibility and secure our borders.... alas, I'm not holding my breath though... and if they don't they will take a big hit.
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