Posted on 04/24/2006 8:38:45 AM PDT by Reagan Man
With President Bush's popularity at an all-time low, hovering in the mid-30s in most national surveys, and the conservative base of the Republican Party increasingly dismayed with the President's performance on issues such as runaway government spending and immigration "reform," chances are increasing that the Democrats could eke out a majority in the House of Representatives in the elections this fall.
Four months ago, I concluded that there were 20 Republican House seats that were vulnerable to Democratic takeover, now I believe that there are 30. To achieve a majority, the Democrats would need to win a net gain of 15.
(The present makeup of the House is 232 Republicans, 200 Democrats, and one independent who votes with Democrats for control. There are also two vacancies -- the seat of former Republican Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham of California who was convicted of bribery and that of former New Jersey Democratic Rep. Robert Menendez, who was named to a U.S. Senate vacancy.)
"If the President's job rating is above 50%, his party tends to suffer only narrow losses or even, as in 1934 and 1998 -- and almost in 1962 -- makes gains," wrote veteran political prognosticator Michael Barone last week of midterm elections. "If the President's job rating is significantly under 50%, his party tends to lose lots of seats."
Bernadette Budde, who has been monitoring elections for the Business and Industry Political Action Committee for more than 30 years, told me two months ago that in the current political climate "the fickle finger of fate could point to upsets in a lot of districts the so-called experts are writing off as 'safe.'" At a breakfast two weeks ago, when I asked Budde whether the situation had gotten better or worse, she quickly replied: "Worse. The fickle finger of fate is now attached to a palsied brain."
Here is a summary of the 30 Republican House districts that have at least a fair chance of going Democratic in November:
Arizona's 5th and 8th: Republican former State House Whip Randy Graf, who drew 43% against veteran Rep. Jim Kolbe (R.-Ariz.) in the 2004 primary, is the likely GOP nominee for the Tucson-area 8th District seat Kolbe is relinquishing. But Graf's pro-life and anti-illegal immigration views do not sit well with old foe Kolbe and his allies, so the chances of Democratic State Sen. Gabriel Gifford's picking up the seat have improved. In the 5th District, the Democratic candidate, former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell, may give a tough fight to Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth, who has broken with the Bush Administration on immigration.
California's 4th and 50th: Heightened publicity about the ties between Republican Rep. John Doolittle and his wife and convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff has put Doolittle's re-election to the 4th District seat in jeopardy. In the disgraced Cunningham's 50th District, Democrat Francine Busby topped the all-candidate field with 44% of the vote in the first voting round and is even money to win the special election over moderate former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray in June.
Colorado's 7th: Republican Rep. Bob Beauprez narrowly won this suburban Denver district in the last two cycles. But with Beauprez running for governor, Democrats feel confident of picking up a district carried by Al Gore and John Kerry.
Connecticut's 2nd, 4th and 5th: Republican Rep. Rob Simmons has had difficult reelection runs since he won the 2nd District in the closest House race in the nation in 2000. Democrats scored well in recruiting former Westport First Selectman Diane Farrell to take on GOP Rep. Chris Shays in the 4th and State Sen. Christopher Murphy to oppose veteran Rep. Nancy Johnson in the 5th.
Florida's 22nd: Long-time Republican Rep. Clay Shaw, who beat lung cancer, has had stiff challenges in his last three campaigns and now faces Democratic State Sen. Ron Klein.
Illinois' 6th: With Republican Rep. Henry Hyde retiring from this suburban Chicago District, Democrats are waging a well-funded race against his protégé, State Sen. Pete Roskam. The candidacy of Iraqi War veteran Tammy Duckworth is generating nationwide Democratic funding and publicity.
Indiana's 2nd, 8th and 9th: Hoosier Democrats have major league contenders against GOP Representatives John Hostettler (8th) and Mike Sodrel (9th) in Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (8th) and former Rep. Baron Hill (9th). Two-term Republican Rep. Chris Chocola is still on the GOP "watch list" for the GOP in the South Bend-area 2nd District.
Iowa's 1st: Republicans in the Waterloo-Davenport district are increasingly worried that heated competition for nomination to succeed Rep. Jim Nussle (now the likely GOP candidate for governor) will benefit the probable Democratic candidate, 2004 nominee Bill Gluba.
Kentucky's 3rd: After 12 years in office, Republican Anne Northup is still a regular Democratic target in her Louisville district. This year, Democrats have an unusually strong nominee in Iraqi veteran Andrew Horne.
Minnesota's 6th: Democrat Patty Wetterling, who drew 45% of the vote against Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy here in 2004, has recently dropped from the Senate race for another run in the 6th, which Kennedy is leaving to run for the Senate himself. A districtwide convention next month will choose among four GOPers running to succeed Kennedy.
Nevada's 3rd: Two-term GOP Rep. Jon Porter is still a top Democratic target in his Las Vegas-area district and faces a strong challenge from former staffer for Sen. Harry Reid (D.) Tessa Haffen.
New Hampshire's 2nd: Democrats recruited well-known prosecutor Paul Hodes to oppose moderate GOP Rep. Charles Bass in this Concord-area district.
New Mexico's 1st and 2nd: Republican Representatives Heather Wilson in the1st District (Albuquerque) and Steve Pearce in the 2nd District (Roswell) are still major Democratic targets. Wilson, who always has tight races, faces an especially strong foe in State Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid.
New York's 24th: With veteran liberal Republican Rep. Sherwood Boehlert retiring after 24 years, the GOP is likely to nominate conservative State Sen. Raymond Meier. Democrats smell victory in this now open district. Their first heavyweight nominee in recent years is likely to be Utica District Attorney Michael Arcuri.
North Carolina's 11th: National Democrats recruited onetime Washington Redskins quarterback Heath Shuler to take on GOP Rep. Charles Taylor.
Ohio's 1st, 15th and 18th: With major scandal surrounding statehouse Republicans, Democrats anticipate a bonanza year in the state that clinched re-election for George W. Bush. Democrats recruited top opponents to face Republican Representatives Steve Chabot (1st), Deborah Pryce (15th), and Bob Ney (18th). Ney is the most high-profile lawmaker linked to Jack Abramoff.
Pennsylvania's 6th, 8th and 10th: With GOP Sen. Rick Santorum trailing for re-election and Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell headed for a big re-election, Democrats have recruited strong contenders in marginal districts held by Republicans: Law Professor Lois Murphy against Rep. Jim Gerlach (6th) and Iraqi veteran Patrick Murphy against Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick (8th). The fate of GOP Rep. Don Sherwood (10th), who has admitted an extramarital affair, is uncertain.
Virginia's 2nd: Democratic Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam, scion of one of his hometown's best-known families, is locked in a tight race with freshman GOP Rep. Thelma Drake.
Washington's 8th: In winning his first term in 2004, Republican Rep. David Reichert had an unusually close race in this suburban Seattle-based district. Democrats now have a well-funded candidate in former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner.
Heck of it is, your team very seldom offers it's best 'cause it always seems that the best is unelectable. At least that what I keep reading and hearing. So you offer up mediocrity (at best) with the promise of changing him/her into the conservative that was unelectable. How many mediocres have you managed to change?
Gawd, pithy & piquant, I love it!!! That would make the absolutely, greatest tagline ever...if only it would fit I would beg you to allow me to use it!!!
Come on, folks--seeking enforcement of our sovereign borders and the rule of law doesn't equate to aiding and abetting a Rat coup d'etat.
If the Republicans lose the majority in either chamber of Congress, it will be because they ignored the warning signs. They will have brought it on themselves.
Two words...Speaker Pelosi
Would it really be that much worse than now???
And you are all over that meme, created by the liberal press who seek to put Democrats in charge by any and all means, like flies on s**t.
Also, you can say what you want but the majority of people in this country want our borders controlled and NO amnesty for criminals.
...right up to the moment where they might get personally inconvenienced, whereupon they'll scream "But I didn't want the government to do THAT!"
When you say border trolls you are name calling without presenting any constructive plan to eliminate or deal with the problem.
That's what the border trolls do; they propose ideas that won't last one second in the real world and call them "solutions."
Bush has screwed up on this, his war on terror has been good as far as it goes, but our borders are part of the war on terror and sooner or later it will become very evident this is true.
And the border trolls once again engage in their specialty: praying for another 9/11 so that they might dance on the corpses of their fellow Americans.
Jumping onto a liberal press meme like flies on s**t does, however--and that's exactly what certain people are doing here.
You cannot hold someone's feet to the fire if you have nothing to back it up. Holding politicians feet to the fire envolves the threat of not voting for them. If we continue to vote for them regardless of their actions then we are not "holding their feet to the fire", we are wimping out because of fear. Vote third party.
If enough conservatives vote third party they will get the hint. If we lose some seats so be it. The best thing to happen would be if a large percentage of conservatives suddenly found the wool off their eyes and voted for, or formed their own, third party. We need one desparately in this country, or soon we will all be subjects and not citizens.
"The last time this happened, Republicans voted for Perot to "send a message" and we got President Clinton."
Maybe the Republican leadership should pay closer attention to their base this time around.
Please feel free.
If you think the agenda in the House wouldn't be a LOT different under the ultra-left leadership of Nancy Pelosi, you either don't know her, or you identify with her politics.
George,
Saved by Grace is not the only one who feels that way. There are more of us than party loyalists realize.
Fair enough. But we'd have to be willing to lose several elections to the Dems while the Republican coalition fractured and was rebuilt, and hope to God that whatever other party comes along doesn't fall victim to the same tone-deafness and cronyism the major parties have.
If only it was three or four words shorter, it cuts off at the 'u' in tug, dang it!
The issue the last time was over GHWBush going back on his pledge and raising taxes after the D's refused to pass a budget until Bush raised taxes.
The faithful threw a hissy fit and went for Perot...we got Clinton and the first thing he did was [drum roll] raise taxes again.
So...threatening to punish the Republican leadership and rank and file by helping them get unelected unless they do what you want is like pointing a loaded gun at your own head and threatening to pull the trigger.
How about: "Taking a break to stick your head up your ____ during tug-o-rope is foolish."
You're helping to prove that those statements are correct, George.
Sure, I'm posting on a conservative website, standing up for conservative principles, and so in your mind I'm just here to sow discord. That makes as much sense as anyother bit of nonsense that the pro-illegal-alien lobby has posted.
Politicians don't get my vote just because they have an R after their name. But for this coming election, the only pressure points I can man are the letter-writing, phone-calling points, and my vote. I am applying pressure on all those points.
What are YOU doing to help secure the borders against this foreign invasion?
I AM stealing that, you know. :)
Maybe...it's just me, but, personally I'm not ready to cut my own throat while standing knee deep in hog $h!! and hope the $h!! clogs up the glash and stops the bleeding before I bleed to death.
"We just don't think it is wise to stick our heads up our ______ and take a break during a game of tug-of-rope."
Try...Its unwise to stick your head up your "A$$" and take a break during a game of tug-of-rope.
That might fit.
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