Posted on 04/24/2006 8:38:45 AM PDT by Reagan Man
With President Bush's popularity at an all-time low, hovering in the mid-30s in most national surveys, and the conservative base of the Republican Party increasingly dismayed with the President's performance on issues such as runaway government spending and immigration "reform," chances are increasing that the Democrats could eke out a majority in the House of Representatives in the elections this fall.
Four months ago, I concluded that there were 20 Republican House seats that were vulnerable to Democratic takeover, now I believe that there are 30. To achieve a majority, the Democrats would need to win a net gain of 15.
(The present makeup of the House is 232 Republicans, 200 Democrats, and one independent who votes with Democrats for control. There are also two vacancies -- the seat of former Republican Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham of California who was convicted of bribery and that of former New Jersey Democratic Rep. Robert Menendez, who was named to a U.S. Senate vacancy.)
"If the President's job rating is above 50%, his party tends to suffer only narrow losses or even, as in 1934 and 1998 -- and almost in 1962 -- makes gains," wrote veteran political prognosticator Michael Barone last week of midterm elections. "If the President's job rating is significantly under 50%, his party tends to lose lots of seats."
Bernadette Budde, who has been monitoring elections for the Business and Industry Political Action Committee for more than 30 years, told me two months ago that in the current political climate "the fickle finger of fate could point to upsets in a lot of districts the so-called experts are writing off as 'safe.'" At a breakfast two weeks ago, when I asked Budde whether the situation had gotten better or worse, she quickly replied: "Worse. The fickle finger of fate is now attached to a palsied brain."
Here is a summary of the 30 Republican House districts that have at least a fair chance of going Democratic in November:
Arizona's 5th and 8th: Republican former State House Whip Randy Graf, who drew 43% against veteran Rep. Jim Kolbe (R.-Ariz.) in the 2004 primary, is the likely GOP nominee for the Tucson-area 8th District seat Kolbe is relinquishing. But Graf's pro-life and anti-illegal immigration views do not sit well with old foe Kolbe and his allies, so the chances of Democratic State Sen. Gabriel Gifford's picking up the seat have improved. In the 5th District, the Democratic candidate, former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell, may give a tough fight to Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth, who has broken with the Bush Administration on immigration.
California's 4th and 50th: Heightened publicity about the ties between Republican Rep. John Doolittle and his wife and convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff has put Doolittle's re-election to the 4th District seat in jeopardy. In the disgraced Cunningham's 50th District, Democrat Francine Busby topped the all-candidate field with 44% of the vote in the first voting round and is even money to win the special election over moderate former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray in June.
Colorado's 7th: Republican Rep. Bob Beauprez narrowly won this suburban Denver district in the last two cycles. But with Beauprez running for governor, Democrats feel confident of picking up a district carried by Al Gore and John Kerry.
Connecticut's 2nd, 4th and 5th: Republican Rep. Rob Simmons has had difficult reelection runs since he won the 2nd District in the closest House race in the nation in 2000. Democrats scored well in recruiting former Westport First Selectman Diane Farrell to take on GOP Rep. Chris Shays in the 4th and State Sen. Christopher Murphy to oppose veteran Rep. Nancy Johnson in the 5th.
Florida's 22nd: Long-time Republican Rep. Clay Shaw, who beat lung cancer, has had stiff challenges in his last three campaigns and now faces Democratic State Sen. Ron Klein.
Illinois' 6th: With Republican Rep. Henry Hyde retiring from this suburban Chicago District, Democrats are waging a well-funded race against his protégé, State Sen. Pete Roskam. The candidacy of Iraqi War veteran Tammy Duckworth is generating nationwide Democratic funding and publicity.
Indiana's 2nd, 8th and 9th: Hoosier Democrats have major league contenders against GOP Representatives John Hostettler (8th) and Mike Sodrel (9th) in Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (8th) and former Rep. Baron Hill (9th). Two-term Republican Rep. Chris Chocola is still on the GOP "watch list" for the GOP in the South Bend-area 2nd District.
Iowa's 1st: Republicans in the Waterloo-Davenport district are increasingly worried that heated competition for nomination to succeed Rep. Jim Nussle (now the likely GOP candidate for governor) will benefit the probable Democratic candidate, 2004 nominee Bill Gluba.
Kentucky's 3rd: After 12 years in office, Republican Anne Northup is still a regular Democratic target in her Louisville district. This year, Democrats have an unusually strong nominee in Iraqi veteran Andrew Horne.
Minnesota's 6th: Democrat Patty Wetterling, who drew 45% of the vote against Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy here in 2004, has recently dropped from the Senate race for another run in the 6th, which Kennedy is leaving to run for the Senate himself. A districtwide convention next month will choose among four GOPers running to succeed Kennedy.
Nevada's 3rd: Two-term GOP Rep. Jon Porter is still a top Democratic target in his Las Vegas-area district and faces a strong challenge from former staffer for Sen. Harry Reid (D.) Tessa Haffen.
New Hampshire's 2nd: Democrats recruited well-known prosecutor Paul Hodes to oppose moderate GOP Rep. Charles Bass in this Concord-area district.
New Mexico's 1st and 2nd: Republican Representatives Heather Wilson in the1st District (Albuquerque) and Steve Pearce in the 2nd District (Roswell) are still major Democratic targets. Wilson, who always has tight races, faces an especially strong foe in State Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid.
New York's 24th: With veteran liberal Republican Rep. Sherwood Boehlert retiring after 24 years, the GOP is likely to nominate conservative State Sen. Raymond Meier. Democrats smell victory in this now open district. Their first heavyweight nominee in recent years is likely to be Utica District Attorney Michael Arcuri.
North Carolina's 11th: National Democrats recruited onetime Washington Redskins quarterback Heath Shuler to take on GOP Rep. Charles Taylor.
Ohio's 1st, 15th and 18th: With major scandal surrounding statehouse Republicans, Democrats anticipate a bonanza year in the state that clinched re-election for George W. Bush. Democrats recruited top opponents to face Republican Representatives Steve Chabot (1st), Deborah Pryce (15th), and Bob Ney (18th). Ney is the most high-profile lawmaker linked to Jack Abramoff.
Pennsylvania's 6th, 8th and 10th: With GOP Sen. Rick Santorum trailing for re-election and Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell headed for a big re-election, Democrats have recruited strong contenders in marginal districts held by Republicans: Law Professor Lois Murphy against Rep. Jim Gerlach (6th) and Iraqi veteran Patrick Murphy against Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick (8th). The fate of GOP Rep. Don Sherwood (10th), who has admitted an extramarital affair, is uncertain.
Virginia's 2nd: Democratic Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam, scion of one of his hometown's best-known families, is locked in a tight race with freshman GOP Rep. Thelma Drake.
Washington's 8th: In winning his first term in 2004, Republican Rep. David Reichert had an unusually close race in this suburban Seattle-based district. Democrats now have a well-funded candidate in former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner.
Hayworth drew a top-tier challenger, former Tempe mayor and current State Sen. Harry Mitchell. He's very popular in his town. I don't think Mitchell has better than 1 in 4 odds of unseating Hayworth, but as far as House races go this can be considered "vulnerable." It means that if the Democrats have a good year nationwide, they have a strong candidate in place in a not-solid district that can take advantage of the wave.
I had a similar conversation with a friend of mine and he was unusually critical too. I guess I was as well. I think alot of this is attributable to gasoline prices. Gas prices started to climb right after Katrina...Bush's approval numbers started to drop at the same time. It just looks like the GOP doesn't care...they don't get it. I think they should be using $3.00 a gallon gas to bash the 'Rats brains in. They're the one's who won't let us drill in ANWAR or offshore on the Atlantic or Pacific. They're the ones who block new refinery contruction and nuke construction. We should be beating them silly on this. The Senate ought to find a way to bring ANWAR up immediately.
I just wish they'd start fighting. I think that the chances of the 'Rats taking over the House are slim. Politics is local after all...but IF they do take the House the Impeachment of President Bush is a forgone conclusion.
Now he's just a criminal. Pathetic.
The bright side could be that she might not follow the orders of the owners as well as the Bush.
He was the guy Tom Cruise's character was based on in the movie Top Gun. Cunningham was a great pilot. Google him...
Democrats and Republicans are the two divisions of the single Lincoln party. They are no different, they want one central government.
When the Confederate states lost, everything the founding fathers wanted was removed.
Well, this "cipher" took a 13K investment and turned it into a 70 million dollar return. Legally. Shows SOME degree of intelligence. Oh yes, and what about what it takes to create a business that could do that? I don't think you could be honest with yourself and know all that goes into creating a business such as that, and be just a guy that's on a bunch of commercials. But, if you must reduce it to that, the cipher you refer to almost beat a known commodity. How'd that happen if he's so nothing? I know it's all about exposure influencing the stupid Republican mind. Riiiiight.
All I'm saying is that voters should really pay attention. We have an opportunity, and the best should be made of that opportunity.
I lived in Tempe when Mitchell was mayor.
Or, "pretty good vs. could be really awful."
He exactly zero political experience prior to his vulture candidacy. All we have are some vague promises of what he says he'll do; we have exactly zero track record on hand for assessing whether or not those oral promises are worth the paper they're printed on.
But, if you must reduce it to that, the cipher you refer to almost beat a known commodity. How'd that happen if he's so nothing?
"Almost" only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and atomic bombs. He was running in a very large field, and he does share a surname with a former San Diego County Sherriff. He still has a lousy organization, and has not spent his time and effort building one. If you want to hand the seat to the Democrats, go ahead and nominate ANYBODY whose organization is of like quality.
All I'm saying is that voters should really pay attention. We have an opportunity, and the best should be made of that opportunity.
And electing a complete unknown whose commercials are long on platitudes and short on specifics is making the best of that opportunity?
Gasoline will be way down by Nov...just wait and see. The other problem with our borders...now that's something else. I'm sure both parties got an ear full during their little ole' vacation from many Americans.
...Well, you must be if you don't mind those with a D after their names taking over. I guess you don't mind taxes out the booza either...Personally, I have a real problem working my butt off and some damned person with a D after their name deciding I need to give half of it to some drug addict, booze drinking, lowlife just because that lowlife's vote can be bought for a free bus ride and a pack of smokes.
During the Miers' nomination battle, you considered that issue important enough to make silly statements like:
Conservatives are to the Republican Party what the blacks, pardon, the African Americans, are to Dimocrat Party.Obviously, you're not happy with the Republican Party, since you consider yourself to be in the roped-off back section of a tent.As long as they go along with the program and don't make waves, everything's OK. Step out of line, and WHAM.
The Big Tent has a section roped off, way in the back, just for conservatives.
Are here just to sow discord?
To me, the border issue is about much more than immigration--it's about national security. Why spend billions of dollars and countless man-hours to strip-search people at airports when anybody who wants to can walk right across our border with impunity? How can we say our nation is secure when we don't even control who's coming in or going out?
If the past is any guide, the media is again overstating the dem chances. Quite a few pollsters had Kerry winning in 2004 on the eve of the election. And the exit polls had him winning too...
Conservatives can take an all or nothing approach to supporting the GOP this time around.
But I say vote. If it's a primary, vote for the most conservative candidate. If it's a general election, vote for the more conservative option.
And continue to talk to family and friends and make the conservative arguments.
Differences (even smaller ones than we would like) between candidates do matter over the course of time. Let's take the long view.
The CA 50 alone discounts this article...oh and by the way, where is the D's 30 House seats in jeopardy list...huh?
1) If you are going to discuss potential outcomes of the election, then isn't it reasonable to analyze how/why those potential outcomes are produced?
2) What exactly do you mean by the derisive phrase "Rain Man brigade"? Do you view concern about an uncontrolled flood of illegal entries to our country as a disability similar to autism? At least on its surface, your comment is insensitive and insulting to me as a conservative, and as parent to an autistic child. Your argument would be stronger if you stuck to facts instead of trying to be clever.
The only border "trolls" are the ones on this forum that want to keep the border open or try to make it a non issue. This article specifically mentioned ILLEGAL immigration reform as one of the issues that might bring the pubbies down this election. Should we all have ignored that because it upsets a few of you people who have a stake in ILLEGALS comming into the country freely?
Also, you can say what you want but the majority of people in this country want our borders controlled and NO amnesty for criminals.
When you say border trolls you are name calling without presenting any constructive plan to eliminate or deal with the problem. Bush has screwed up on this, his war on terror has been good as far as it goes, but our borders are part of the war on terror and sooner or later it will become very evident this is true.
John Gizzi misquotes Michael Barone. Barone says that in some elections presidential popularity is associated with net House pick-ups or loses in off-year elections, and in other years there is no connection between presidential popularity and the results in House races. Barone then goes on to discuss whether this year, with Bush's very low numbers, is one of the first kind of years, or one of the second.
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