Posted on 04/24/2006 8:38:45 AM PDT by Reagan Man
With President Bush's popularity at an all-time low, hovering in the mid-30s in most national surveys, and the conservative base of the Republican Party increasingly dismayed with the President's performance on issues such as runaway government spending and immigration "reform," chances are increasing that the Democrats could eke out a majority in the House of Representatives in the elections this fall.
Four months ago, I concluded that there were 20 Republican House seats that were vulnerable to Democratic takeover, now I believe that there are 30. To achieve a majority, the Democrats would need to win a net gain of 15.
(The present makeup of the House is 232 Republicans, 200 Democrats, and one independent who votes with Democrats for control. There are also two vacancies -- the seat of former Republican Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham of California who was convicted of bribery and that of former New Jersey Democratic Rep. Robert Menendez, who was named to a U.S. Senate vacancy.)
"If the President's job rating is above 50%, his party tends to suffer only narrow losses or even, as in 1934 and 1998 -- and almost in 1962 -- makes gains," wrote veteran political prognosticator Michael Barone last week of midterm elections. "If the President's job rating is significantly under 50%, his party tends to lose lots of seats."
Bernadette Budde, who has been monitoring elections for the Business and Industry Political Action Committee for more than 30 years, told me two months ago that in the current political climate "the fickle finger of fate could point to upsets in a lot of districts the so-called experts are writing off as 'safe.'" At a breakfast two weeks ago, when I asked Budde whether the situation had gotten better or worse, she quickly replied: "Worse. The fickle finger of fate is now attached to a palsied brain."
Here is a summary of the 30 Republican House districts that have at least a fair chance of going Democratic in November:
Arizona's 5th and 8th: Republican former State House Whip Randy Graf, who drew 43% against veteran Rep. Jim Kolbe (R.-Ariz.) in the 2004 primary, is the likely GOP nominee for the Tucson-area 8th District seat Kolbe is relinquishing. But Graf's pro-life and anti-illegal immigration views do not sit well with old foe Kolbe and his allies, so the chances of Democratic State Sen. Gabriel Gifford's picking up the seat have improved. In the 5th District, the Democratic candidate, former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell, may give a tough fight to Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth, who has broken with the Bush Administration on immigration.
California's 4th and 50th: Heightened publicity about the ties between Republican Rep. John Doolittle and his wife and convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff has put Doolittle's re-election to the 4th District seat in jeopardy. In the disgraced Cunningham's 50th District, Democrat Francine Busby topped the all-candidate field with 44% of the vote in the first voting round and is even money to win the special election over moderate former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray in June.
Colorado's 7th: Republican Rep. Bob Beauprez narrowly won this suburban Denver district in the last two cycles. But with Beauprez running for governor, Democrats feel confident of picking up a district carried by Al Gore and John Kerry.
Connecticut's 2nd, 4th and 5th: Republican Rep. Rob Simmons has had difficult reelection runs since he won the 2nd District in the closest House race in the nation in 2000. Democrats scored well in recruiting former Westport First Selectman Diane Farrell to take on GOP Rep. Chris Shays in the 4th and State Sen. Christopher Murphy to oppose veteran Rep. Nancy Johnson in the 5th.
Florida's 22nd: Long-time Republican Rep. Clay Shaw, who beat lung cancer, has had stiff challenges in his last three campaigns and now faces Democratic State Sen. Ron Klein.
Illinois' 6th: With Republican Rep. Henry Hyde retiring from this suburban Chicago District, Democrats are waging a well-funded race against his protégé, State Sen. Pete Roskam. The candidacy of Iraqi War veteran Tammy Duckworth is generating nationwide Democratic funding and publicity.
Indiana's 2nd, 8th and 9th: Hoosier Democrats have major league contenders against GOP Representatives John Hostettler (8th) and Mike Sodrel (9th) in Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (8th) and former Rep. Baron Hill (9th). Two-term Republican Rep. Chris Chocola is still on the GOP "watch list" for the GOP in the South Bend-area 2nd District.
Iowa's 1st: Republicans in the Waterloo-Davenport district are increasingly worried that heated competition for nomination to succeed Rep. Jim Nussle (now the likely GOP candidate for governor) will benefit the probable Democratic candidate, 2004 nominee Bill Gluba.
Kentucky's 3rd: After 12 years in office, Republican Anne Northup is still a regular Democratic target in her Louisville district. This year, Democrats have an unusually strong nominee in Iraqi veteran Andrew Horne.
Minnesota's 6th: Democrat Patty Wetterling, who drew 45% of the vote against Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy here in 2004, has recently dropped from the Senate race for another run in the 6th, which Kennedy is leaving to run for the Senate himself. A districtwide convention next month will choose among four GOPers running to succeed Kennedy.
Nevada's 3rd: Two-term GOP Rep. Jon Porter is still a top Democratic target in his Las Vegas-area district and faces a strong challenge from former staffer for Sen. Harry Reid (D.) Tessa Haffen.
New Hampshire's 2nd: Democrats recruited well-known prosecutor Paul Hodes to oppose moderate GOP Rep. Charles Bass in this Concord-area district.
New Mexico's 1st and 2nd: Republican Representatives Heather Wilson in the1st District (Albuquerque) and Steve Pearce in the 2nd District (Roswell) are still major Democratic targets. Wilson, who always has tight races, faces an especially strong foe in State Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid.
New York's 24th: With veteran liberal Republican Rep. Sherwood Boehlert retiring after 24 years, the GOP is likely to nominate conservative State Sen. Raymond Meier. Democrats smell victory in this now open district. Their first heavyweight nominee in recent years is likely to be Utica District Attorney Michael Arcuri.
North Carolina's 11th: National Democrats recruited onetime Washington Redskins quarterback Heath Shuler to take on GOP Rep. Charles Taylor.
Ohio's 1st, 15th and 18th: With major scandal surrounding statehouse Republicans, Democrats anticipate a bonanza year in the state that clinched re-election for George W. Bush. Democrats recruited top opponents to face Republican Representatives Steve Chabot (1st), Deborah Pryce (15th), and Bob Ney (18th). Ney is the most high-profile lawmaker linked to Jack Abramoff.
Pennsylvania's 6th, 8th and 10th: With GOP Sen. Rick Santorum trailing for re-election and Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell headed for a big re-election, Democrats have recruited strong contenders in marginal districts held by Republicans: Law Professor Lois Murphy against Rep. Jim Gerlach (6th) and Iraqi veteran Patrick Murphy against Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick (8th). The fate of GOP Rep. Don Sherwood (10th), who has admitted an extramarital affair, is uncertain.
Virginia's 2nd: Democratic Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam, scion of one of his hometown's best-known families, is locked in a tight race with freshman GOP Rep. Thelma Drake.
Washington's 8th: In winning his first term in 2004, Republican Rep. David Reichert had an unusually close race in this suburban Seattle-based district. Democrats now have a well-funded candidate in former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner.
imo
No kidding. One trick ponies.
Then you'd think President Bush and the pubbies would drop their open borders & guest worker programs. If they lose the majority, it will be their own stubborn fault.
We, the voters, have not changed - the pubbies have. Talk to them, not to us.
No, Cheney automatically becomes Veep. But I guarantee that if there's impeachment, it will be against Cheney first, followed by filibustering any nominee to replace him while they impeach Bush.
The border trolls are aiding and abetting a Democratic coup d'etat.
No, Cheney automatically becomes Veep. But I guarantee that if there's impeachment, it will be against Cheney first, followed by filibustering any nominee to replace him while they impeach Bush.
The border trolls are aiding and abetting a Democratic coup d'etat.
I like that! 'silver lining' thinking
I think the left is confusing corelation with causation.
They THINK rigged polls will equal a cause to house change.
This does not equal fact.
I hate to break it to people but I am far better off with a Rupublican controlled house and senate and presidency than I am with a democrat party controlled ANYTHING.
Sure they have botched immigration. However, it is a fact the democrat party will make it EVEN WORSE.
I say this is more push polling to try and "speak red state" and "Mr. Walis 'me too' christianity talking points"
Demcrats remain the party of homosexuals marriage, race quotas, anti-family, anti-profit, soak the taxpayer, collectivist property, anti-personal property, and duty to die medicine.
THAT has not changed and I will be voting in Novermber.
"If and when this happens, look for *impeachment proceedings* to begin, right away. Guarranteed"
I don't know about you but why not start'em up now. The MSM had the last election wired by April, right?
Oh Yeah, Never mind.
Umm...Cheney's already Veep...he becomes President in the event of a Bush impeachment, conviction and removal from office. That's not going to happen.
When you start "voting from the rooftops", will you have any concern that the Northern Command might stick and RPG up your rear-end.
LOL!!
Wow. Looks like the RNC's talking points are getting pretty tough.
It would appear that the hacks are getting ready to launch even more harsh attacks on the base.
Real smart, eh?
If they lose the majority it will be because Republican voters stay home and pout because they didn't get their way on one or another issue.
The last time this happened, Republicans voted for Perot to "send a message" and we got President Clinton.
Just because you want to point a gun at your foot doesn't mean you have to pull the trigger...
Maybe that's the wrong way to go about it. Hispanics usually vote in low numbers, about 20% turnout.
HR 4437 might increase the Hispanic turnout to 50% or higher, voting against House Republicans who want to criminalize illegal aliens and turn ministers into felons.
It's easy to pontificate about our pet issue, but elections are more complicated than "guest worker programs."
Maybe they'll return from the twilight zone in time to realize that politics matter, especially in an election year, and conservative politics matters most. At least that was the purpose of Free Republic at one time.
As a member of the 50th District, let me say that it is NOT in jeopardy.
Here's the scoop: Brian Bilbray is a seasoned enough veteran of politics to hold his own, and fight like there's no tomorrow for the votes needed to win over Ms. B. All he has to do is get her to stand for anything she politically believes in, and she's history. Yes, it's difficult to get Dems to make a stand on anything, but Brian's well capable of doing so.
That said, there is another issue brewing in the 50th. What does Bilbray have in his own history that could be at issue? Does the 50th want a moderate Republican, or a REAL Republican? Eric Roach is a decent, honest, and personally funded man. He's not someone that can be told what to do by anyone (Party included) other than his constituents. Sounds good to you? Me too.
50th, here's what we need to do:
1. Vote for Brian Bilbray in June's election to hold Duke's seat for six months.
2. Vote for either Bilbray or Roach in June's election to be our next Congressman in the 50th District.
There's a big shove to get all of us to get behind Brian Bilbray from many directions. Take this under consideration, and take what I've said about Eric Roach's dedication to US into consideration. Ask yourselves why do "the powers that be" want Bilbray to seem the shoe-in for the job? What's going on behind the scenes with why Roger Hedgecock is so Bilbray happy? DO SOME HOMEWORK BETWEEN NOW AND JUNE. LEARN, LISTEN, AND VOTE!!! ....REPUBLICAN
This is another liberal "wish list" piece because I can tell you right now JD Hayworth isn't going to lose his seat in Arizona. I agree with the poster above about the Rendell massize re-election...come on, they just can't begin to print even moderate truth about anything!
I like it... I love it... I want some more of it... (Not the reality, just the sarcastic tag you've tagged it with)
The only change I'd suggest is... the Gelded Old Party...
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