Posted on 04/23/2006 7:22:07 PM PDT by RWR8189
NOW THAT HE'S BACK IN the elections business, Karl Rove has a huge task on his hands: assuring strong Republican voter turnout. At the moment, Republicans are in a funk. And their dejected mood may presage a low turnout in the midterm election on November 7. Should a large number of Republican voters sit this one out, Republicans could lose control of one or both houses of Congress. It's when Republicans are either inspired or angry that they show up in large numbers and win elections. So Rove, along with Republican national chairman Ken Mehlman, has the job of shaping issues that will make Republicans angry or inspired, or both.
There's one big problem--two, actually. First, Rove's magic won't affect the biggest issues dogging the Bush presidency and causing Republicans to be disheartened: Iraq and rising gas prices. But the second problem--President Bush's sagging job approval among Republicans--is one that Rove can address by emphasizing policies that appeal to Republicans and by creating strong fears of a Democratic takeover.
Let's be clear about turnout. It matters enormously. The sweeping Republican defeat following Watergate in 1974 was only indirectly related to the scandal. The Democratic landslide was directly attributable to the diminished Republican turnout that resulted from Watergate-induced dejection among Republicans.
More recently, the turnout factor has been the single greatest influence on midterm elections. In 1990, 27.4 million Americans voted for Republican House candidates, and the party lost 8 seats. In 1994, however, the Republican turnout jumped to 36.3 million, and the party captured 52 House seats. It dipped in 1998 to 32 million, prompting a loss of 5 seats. But in 2002 it soared to 37 million, and Republicans won 8 House seats.
In presidential election years, jacking up turnout is relatively doable, as the Bush campaign showed in 2004. Presidential elections unleash "incredible energy," a senior Bush adviser says, and that generates volunteers, donors, a campaign infrastructure, and a flood of voters to the polls. "By definition there's less energy," says the adviser, in nonpresidential years--and less infrastructure for a national campaign. The "key" in these years, the adviser continues, is to make "your base as inspired as possible."
With the 2006 midterm election six months away, the Republican base is uninspired. In the Fox News poll in mid-April, only 66 percent of Republicans said they looked favorably on the Bush presidency. This is a disastrous number for Republicans. Of course, it wasn't as bad as the overall Bush rating of 33 percent, which included Democrats and independents.
Low job approval can have a double whammy effect. By itself, a 66 percent rating means that turnout by Republicans is likely to be low. In 2002 and 2004, when Republicans won House seats, Bush's approval among Republicans was 20 or more points higher.
The second effect is to cause further Republican disenchantment. Low poll numbers like 33 percent approval are bound to prompt some Republicans to feel they must separate themselves from Bush and join in criticizing him and Republicans in Congress. This, in turn, leads to lower turnout.
It's a vicious political cycle, but it's not the end of the world for Republicans. There's a lot Rove can do now that he's freed from the administrative duties that went with his old job as deputy chief of staff. He's back to his first-term job as the chief political strategist for Bush and the Republican party. And he has closer ties to the new chief of staff, Josh Bolten, than he did to Bolten's predecessor, Andy Card. He's in a position to invigorate Bush's message and rally Republicans.
A political adviser who works closely with Rove has developed a list of issues that Republicans should concentrate on to spur turnout. They aren't a big secret. Republicans can't survive by relying on incumbency, money, and attacks on Democrats. They need a positive agenda to stir the Republican base in general and conservatives in particular.
So at the top of his list is passage of a federal budget with at least minimal restraints on spending. Before the Easter recess, the House failed to pass one. Since spending curbs are important to conservatives, they'd better pass a budget soon. Republicans also need to stress the "culture of life" by noisily opposing abortion, cloning, and expanded federal subsidies for embryonic stem cell research. And they should push to make the Bush tax cuts permanent and propose serious health care legislation. If they do all this, Bush's support among Republicans should rise and so should his overall approval rating.
But what about Iraq and gas prices? Here, Bush needs help from outside events. Since early 2005, his presidency has been beset not only by Iraq and gas prices but by other outside events, including Hurricane Katrina and the Dubai ports deal. Now, a Republican official says, "it would help to have an outside situation that we could take advantage of."
A permanent, elected government in Iraq might be one, especially if it leads to fewer bombings and further reductions in American casualties by this summer. A break in gas prices is unlikely, but stranger things have happened. It would help. And Democrats may foolishly contribute by making themselves more vulnerable than ever to attacks of the type that Rove is adept at organizing.
The old football saying about winning applies to turnout in 2006. It's not everything. It's the only thing. For Bush and Republicans, turnout is destiny.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard and author of Rebel-in-Chief (Crown Forum).
My argument isn't with Bush. Not precisely. He made clear where he stood on imigration before election. I disagree with him, I'm fighting his position, but was under no illusions of his stance in this area. I had other reasons to vote for him in which he's delivered.
It's Congress most of my fury is levied toward. Most of them are not operating from a position of integrity or principle. They are operating from fear, beltway politics, and a Rockefellar rebellion they won't silence.
They blocked Social Security reform, Republicans specifically stopped it cold.
They refused to end the filibusters, they only confirmed half a dozen and the two SCJ's because the entire Conservative movement came together and fought them and brought the American people with them. That and we had a prior legacy of downing Daschle to serve as a warning call.
They torpedoed ANWR because SOROS came calling. It was SOROS Republicans in the House that ended it.
They are still blocking tax cut permanency.
The patriot Act was delayed and only signed a months later because, again, conservatives revolted.
They approved, saving nine Senators, legislation to protect terrorist in interrogations.
The NSA taps only survie because the President stopped them cold by going on the attack in a Saturday Radio adress and the rest of us backed it up.
Now they come out with amnesty, insult us by denying it for what it is, and then have the nerve to whine what we really need are for Rummy or Cheney to be replaced? Or to repeat propaganda it's the War! and gas prices killing them? After they blocked ANWR they have nerve to complain about oil companies?
As I said, it's easy enough to turn their fortunes around. Midterms aren't about brinign the whole country along. Only beating the other side with your base turnout. But they aren't getting the base by screwing them again and again.
What, you are disheartened by a few wetbacks marching? What a wooss!
As for WMD. I would have never supported sending in ground troops if my President came out publically and said he was 100% Saddam had and was going to use WMD.
We went to Iraq because Saddam had connections to Al Qaeda and he was shooting at our planes...etc. The WMD issue was only important to help us to decide to go in sooner rather than later when Saddam would have them developed. Even the WH dropped the ball on this!
If Bush is impeached. It is because the dems are good liars and republicans have lost their ability to communicate with the American people. I see absolutely NO reason Bush should be impeached.
Finally, I have to say this. I was against impeaching Clinton. Criminal or a civil case against him after he left the White House I could suppport. But the American people voted for him KNOWING already he could not keep it in his pants. The American people had spoken. Yes, Clinton lied and that was where he messed up. He should have not even answered the question. It was the lie that got him impeached. I think it would have been better to charge him after he left the White House. I was against the impeachment because I knew it would open a can of worms. Well, now the can of worms is open.
The dummycrats have been trying to impeach Bush since even before Welstone's death if they succeed...then they succeed. I cant stop that and I sure as heck am not voting for a pro-abortion, open-border internationalist republican to save a republican president who will leave us with no incumbent in 2008 from an impeachment.
So you are willing to give a few seats to the Dems in their march toward a net gain of 15 and taking over the government? You cant possibly believe a "right thinking" Republican of your choice who wants to build a wall and cut real government spending is going to win Chafee's seat do you?
Um, I really don't see much difference.
Neither one could tell the truth to save their lives.
Everyone s so high on Rove, but if I remember right, he told W to steer clear of the gay marriage debate, which was a mistake. Coming out strongly against gay marriage might have garnered some more votes.
If you disagree with this, as you appear to, then you are in disagreement with FR and most of its membership; not to mention the owner of this site.
When you go to vote, is the reason to improve our country or solely to keep the democrats (no matter what the belief of the cadidate is) out of power?
USA? Or politics?
Which is most important to you?
And... seriously... if you refuse to make a party responsible for their actions...are you really helping them long term or are you hurting them.
If you fail to hold the republicans responsible when they ignore their base... are'nt you in a way helping the democrats?
Think about that. You may be Ted Kennedy's useful idiot.
Um, Kerry ran on a patform of "Hey, we hate conservatives, especially George Bush, so vote for us!"
Didn't work for him, don't see a "Hey, let's not impeach W" as a great rallying cry for us.
AMEN!
Good point! We need to keep on the issues. Those we help get elected also need to keep their promises.
Personally I dont see...AM I MISSING SOMETHING????... you people in FR are making think Bush did something impeachable... Maybe I'm stupid but I cannot see anything Bush has done that can get him impeached. PLEASE! This "Hey, let's not impeach W so keep the dems out of power" rallying cry can look suspicious to an average American voter. You're starting to make me wonder... I think it's all panic. I hope.
Fred and Rove are out to lunch these days.
Cater to yer base doofusses
Sadly, a lot of people here would rather be miserable and have everyone else be miserable too; with Dems in charge. Time and experience hasn't taught them any lessons at all.
Very funny and excellent post.
The first time around, the Media, Perot, and a bunch of sit at homes, gave Clinton the win. Even with running a campaign, he heart was NOT in, President G.H.W, Bush WAS closing in, at the last minute. But it was not to be so.
But this election, the one in November of '06, is NOT a presidential one and the many people, on this thread, carping about this president Bush, are proving just how little they know or even care about REAL politics. For them, it's all emotion and venting their spleen.
And should the worst happen, and the GOP loses the House ( which I don't think is going to happen ), the Dems WILL impeach the president and anything and everything "bad" that happens, WILL be blamed on President Bush; though it WILL be that the damned Dems caused it. Most people don't know what we know, because they don't read FR. Even some here, don't read much of what's post here, nor do they take the time to understand it; sad to say.
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