Posted on 04/23/2006 7:22:07 PM PDT by RWR8189
NOW THAT HE'S BACK IN the elections business, Karl Rove has a huge task on his hands: assuring strong Republican voter turnout. At the moment, Republicans are in a funk. And their dejected mood may presage a low turnout in the midterm election on November 7. Should a large number of Republican voters sit this one out, Republicans could lose control of one or both houses of Congress. It's when Republicans are either inspired or angry that they show up in large numbers and win elections. So Rove, along with Republican national chairman Ken Mehlman, has the job of shaping issues that will make Republicans angry or inspired, or both.
There's one big problem--two, actually. First, Rove's magic won't affect the biggest issues dogging the Bush presidency and causing Republicans to be disheartened: Iraq and rising gas prices. But the second problem--President Bush's sagging job approval among Republicans--is one that Rove can address by emphasizing policies that appeal to Republicans and by creating strong fears of a Democratic takeover.
Let's be clear about turnout. It matters enormously. The sweeping Republican defeat following Watergate in 1974 was only indirectly related to the scandal. The Democratic landslide was directly attributable to the diminished Republican turnout that resulted from Watergate-induced dejection among Republicans.
More recently, the turnout factor has been the single greatest influence on midterm elections. In 1990, 27.4 million Americans voted for Republican House candidates, and the party lost 8 seats. In 1994, however, the Republican turnout jumped to 36.3 million, and the party captured 52 House seats. It dipped in 1998 to 32 million, prompting a loss of 5 seats. But in 2002 it soared to 37 million, and Republicans won 8 House seats.
In presidential election years, jacking up turnout is relatively doable, as the Bush campaign showed in 2004. Presidential elections unleash "incredible energy," a senior Bush adviser says, and that generates volunteers, donors, a campaign infrastructure, and a flood of voters to the polls. "By definition there's less energy," says the adviser, in nonpresidential years--and less infrastructure for a national campaign. The "key" in these years, the adviser continues, is to make "your base as inspired as possible."
With the 2006 midterm election six months away, the Republican base is uninspired. In the Fox News poll in mid-April, only 66 percent of Republicans said they looked favorably on the Bush presidency. This is a disastrous number for Republicans. Of course, it wasn't as bad as the overall Bush rating of 33 percent, which included Democrats and independents.
Low job approval can have a double whammy effect. By itself, a 66 percent rating means that turnout by Republicans is likely to be low. In 2002 and 2004, when Republicans won House seats, Bush's approval among Republicans was 20 or more points higher.
The second effect is to cause further Republican disenchantment. Low poll numbers like 33 percent approval are bound to prompt some Republicans to feel they must separate themselves from Bush and join in criticizing him and Republicans in Congress. This, in turn, leads to lower turnout.
It's a vicious political cycle, but it's not the end of the world for Republicans. There's a lot Rove can do now that he's freed from the administrative duties that went with his old job as deputy chief of staff. He's back to his first-term job as the chief political strategist for Bush and the Republican party. And he has closer ties to the new chief of staff, Josh Bolten, than he did to Bolten's predecessor, Andy Card. He's in a position to invigorate Bush's message and rally Republicans.
A political adviser who works closely with Rove has developed a list of issues that Republicans should concentrate on to spur turnout. They aren't a big secret. Republicans can't survive by relying on incumbency, money, and attacks on Democrats. They need a positive agenda to stir the Republican base in general and conservatives in particular.
So at the top of his list is passage of a federal budget with at least minimal restraints on spending. Before the Easter recess, the House failed to pass one. Since spending curbs are important to conservatives, they'd better pass a budget soon. Republicans also need to stress the "culture of life" by noisily opposing abortion, cloning, and expanded federal subsidies for embryonic stem cell research. And they should push to make the Bush tax cuts permanent and propose serious health care legislation. If they do all this, Bush's support among Republicans should rise and so should his overall approval rating.
But what about Iraq and gas prices? Here, Bush needs help from outside events. Since early 2005, his presidency has been beset not only by Iraq and gas prices but by other outside events, including Hurricane Katrina and the Dubai ports deal. Now, a Republican official says, "it would help to have an outside situation that we could take advantage of."
A permanent, elected government in Iraq might be one, especially if it leads to fewer bombings and further reductions in American casualties by this summer. A break in gas prices is unlikely, but stranger things have happened. It would help. And Democrats may foolishly contribute by making themselves more vulnerable than ever to attacks of the type that Rove is adept at organizing.
The old football saying about winning applies to turnout in 2006. It's not everything. It's the only thing. For Bush and Republicans, turnout is destiny.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard and author of Rebel-in-Chief (Crown Forum).
Another tip to Karl: Lets drop this self-destructive "immigration reform" bill and instead do that which we can agree on-demonstrably show the American people that we can secure the southern border. Action item #1-President Bush makes a prime-time statement to the people that he, as a matter of national security, is going to use all his executive powers to secure the border. Action item #2-Proceed to do it in a way that is visible to all. Action item #3-The Republican controlled House passes a resolution in support of this policy. Action item #4-The Senate holds a sense of the Senate vote in support of this policy.
A democrat congress would be the best possible remedy for these idiot republicans. Maybe they will learn a lesson as did the leftist Ford republicans in 1976. No more should we elect fake republicans who spend our taxpayers money like drunken sailors on wasteful leftist democrat programs earning disgust from conservatives and contempt from the liberals. The only way the republicans politicians will learn is to be thrown out of office and good riddance to them.
I dont like McCain.
But if it comes down to McCain or Hillary, I will take McCain.
The "Let them Learn a Lesson and We will teach Them a Lesson" Idiocies brought us 8 years of Bill Clinton. Please stop this dumb analysis.
"Defeat of the Democrats ALWAYS, no exceptions, takes priority."
I don't believe this. I would rather have 41 conservative Senators, as a base to build on, who would prevent the Democrats from passing their agenda, than 60 Republican Senators who assist the Democrats in getting their agenda passed. It's the policies that get passed that count not the "D" or "R" before the name.
Some of the Republicans in the Senate are attempting to pass bills with policy the same as the Democrats. I do not support them anymore than I support a Democrat. We gave the Republicans the House, the Senate and the Presidency. They took this support as a signal to cater to every special interest group including those pushing liberal agenda's. I will not be suckered again. If you support liberal policies, such as open borders and amnesty, I am against you no matter whether there's a "D" or "R" before your name.
Wait until the democrats add a 3 dollar and 50 cent tax per gallon. That is why gas is nearly $7.00 a gallon in Europe. I think it was John Kerry who said we should all be French looking.
Jimmy Carter tried to reduce gas consumption by adding an excess profits tax. Ofcourse that just raises the price of gasoline at the pumps.
Don't vote. That way you can take the time you would have spent voting getting a bicycle or learning to walk where you want to go. Did the Democrats mention manditory mass transit and a limit of 5 galons of gasoline per week for each car? They'll do that after you elect them.
Lincoln Chaffe will already have switched to the Rat party before the election. Rhode Island republicans won't need to throw him out as if they would anyway. Those republicans are to the left of the midwest democrats.
Fred, get out of the business. You no longer know what the hell you are talking about. Evidence in point....
1) Republicans aren't disheartened by Iraq.
2) Republicans aren't disheartened by gas prices.
Scratch that. BASE Republicans aren't. You and your inner bubble might be.
3) i am not a republican!!! Republicans always turn out! It's CONSERVATIVES that sit at home! Stop lacing this damn column with the arrogant premise you are addressing endowed REPUBLICANS. I'm not yours.
4) Your strategy is to come up with a good campaign slogan and simulataneously SCARE people to the polls? You are a real piece of work aren't you Fred. You really don't get it. Conservatives need to be inspired, sure, but they aren't going to get there by being fed jargon that doesn't actulaize after we send people to Washington. campaign slogans don't work now. Republicans are the majority. they've spent most of their time letting McCain, someone that admits he's no conservative, run their chambers. Do you see the correlation between McCain's ascendancy of power and the decline of popularity of the Republican party? Now we want action because we don't trust they aren't blowing smoke. been burned too many times.
"So at the top of his list is passage of a federal budget with at least minimal restraints on spending. Before the Easter recess, the House failed to pass one. Since spending curbs are important to conservatives, they'd better pass a budget soon."
Yes, and the cut of the rate of growth in the last budget being such a struggle I have dim hopes this will happen.
"Republicans also need to stress the "culture of life" by noisily opposing abortion, cloning, and expanded federal subsidies for embryonic stem cell research."
Tell that to Senator Frist, who joined with Specter and what they claimed would be a 2/3rd majority of the Senate that would fund embryonic research if the President VETO'd.
"And they should push to make the Bush tax cuts permanent"
brilliant idea, never would have thought of that.
"and propose serious health care legislation."
I'd rather they didn't. We all know what would happen. We'd get Hillarycare if they do.
I notice you conveniently leave off immigration Fred? Such as NOT passing amnesty? Border security? Filibustered judges still held up? ANWR?
Healthcare won't energize the base. Spending cuts will be minimal if they even happen. Tax cuts we EXPECT at least to happen, the fact they haven't produces an "About time effect".
No, if Republicans want to energize the base they have a few choices. ANWR passage. Fence. Nuke the filibuster. Jail some treasonous scum even if they turn out to be U.S. Senators (Rockefellar and Durbin). Any of these will cheer us up. Spending would only work if it was substantial and more than a cut in the rate of growth.
This is going to sound defeatist, but moving Rove to full time political duties might have made a difference six months ago, after the disaster of Social Security reform and Katrina. But now I fear that there is little time for it to make a difference.
LOL, idiocies born of political immaturity.
"Should a large number of Republican voters sit this one out, Republicans could lose control of one or both houses of Congress. "
"First, Rove's magic won't affect the biggest issues dogging the Bush presidency and causing Republicans to be disheartened: Iraq and rising gas prices."
STOP THE INSANITY!
If Fred Barnes thinks the biggest issues dogging the Bush presidency are Iraq and rising gas prices, then he's out of his mind too!
If the Republicans lose of one or both houses of Congress they EARNED IT!
More power to those democrats. Let them do it. Probably the only way to wake the american people up to the dangers of the left, just as Carter's election and the 21% interest rates and hopeless situation in Iran woke the American people up and resulted in the election of the only real conservative republican president in the last half of the 20th century. The key is to put up bona fide conservative republicans when the country turns against the liberals.
The only thing that would unit Republican voters right now is to propose a policy that will stop illegal immigration and to put a stop to the incentives that bring/keep them here. Also, the Supreme Court must re-interpret the 14th Amendment which fosters anchor-babies.
There is plenty of time to make a difference. The problem is that what will cure the Republicans hopes in the fall isn't a change in campaign jargon.
It's very simple. Republicans are the Majority. To become the Majority they made conservative pledges. They haven't lived up to them. In turn, Americans are furious.
Start to live up to them in action and their fortunes will turn around in a period of two months.
It's really up to the Republicans. They know what we want. They can give us some of what we want. If they do, midterms being base turnout competitions? We'll win. They don't live up to their promises, well, we'll people are going to decide whether they will get a last chance.
You want the faithful at the polls?
Close the border. Punish those who hire illegals.
And try and convict those engaged in SEDITION!
(For the 1-nut republicans like McCain, that means punish Berger, McCarthy, Rockefeller, Durbin and any other dustbag!)
Actually gridlock is good for the economy. If opposing parties are in control of the Legislative and Executive branches, fewer government programs tend to be passed. As worthless as Clinton was, this can be exhibited from 1994 through early 1998. Same thing happened to a lesser extent under Reagan. It seems to work better for some reason with a Republican Legislative branch and a Democrat Executive.
Something has to give though. The amount of money Republicans are spending on programs put even the most ardent liberals from the past to shame
"I hate to be nitpicky, but I think the anger needs to be directed at the other party in order to indicate a big turnout..."
LOL, RIGHT ON!
You're right. But Bush has committed himself to incorrect action in key areas (immigration) and no action in a host of other important areas that it is hard for me to see how they can turn things around.
It brought the conservative revolution that has petered out because of people who vote the party ticket like yellow dog democrats regardless of the views of the republicans they vote for.
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