Posted on 04/11/2006 12:16:46 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
SAN DIEGO - Eighteen candidates in a solidly GOP district on the Southern California coast competed in a special election Tuesday for the congressional seat once held by Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for bribery.
Brian Bilbray, a former congressman-turned-lobbyist who was the choice of the GOP establishment; Republican businessman Eric Roach, who spent $1.8 million of his own money; and Democrat Francine Busby were considered the front-runners.
Cunningham represented the House district from 1993 until he resigned in disgrace late last year. In March, the former Vietnam War fighter ace was sentenced to more than eight years in federal prison for taking $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors.
Tuesday's race had a wide-open ballot, with 14 Republicans, two Democrats, one Libertarian and one independent. If no one got more than 50 percent of the vote, the top finisher from each party would compete in a runoff June 6.
The winner will serve out the remaining eight months of Cunningham's term, and will almost certainly try to hold on to the seat come November.
Republicans outnumber Democrats 3-to-2 in the wealthy district.
If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, the top finisher from each party competes in a June 6 contest, the same day as the primary for the midterm congressional elections.
An outright winner Tuesday or, more likely, the winner of the June contest takes a seat in Congress for the remaining eight months of Cunningham's term — and likely immediately begins campaigning to hold on to the seat come November.
With the GOP field crowded, Democrats hoped that Busby, who ran and lost to Cunningham in 2004, could score an upset, a prospect that her own campaign acknowledged was unlikely.
Voters faced an onslaught of negative campaign mailers and TV ads in the final hours before heading to the polls.
Bilbray, a surfer and one-time lifeguard, was attacked in a mailer from the California Republican Assembly, a grass-roots conservative group, that called Bilbray "a Democrat posing as a Republican."
The Bilbray campaign attacked Roach as a mystery man trying to buy an election. "His political campaign ads and mailers are everywhere. But until a few months ago, no one had ever heard of him," Bilbray's mailer said.
Former state Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian's campaign attempted to recover from an embarrassing misstep. Internet bloggers discovered that photos on his campaign Web site purportedly showing a tranquil Iraqi street scene had been taken in Istanbul, Turkey. The photos were removed.
With the GOP field busy attacking itself, national Republicans poured some $300,000 during the campaign's final week into TV ads criticizing Busby for accepting donations from lobbyists. A mailer from national Republicans claimed that the school board member and self-described soccer mom had voted to lay off teachers in 2003.
Busby retaliated by noting that Cunningham had given $2,000 of his campaign funds to national Republicans before he headed off to prison.
so looks like the repbulican there will get 2/3 of the vote in June?
"Why are you posting to yourself on your own thread regarding this election"
===
I sometime do that, because I am too lazy, or forget to take my name off, when I hit post, when I think of something else I forgot to say in my first post.
This thread wasn't about Arnold, I didn't say a word about Arnold, merely point out the circular fire squad mentality of the Republican party.
Thanks much but there are NO numbers there...that's where I keep going...this is so strange. Somebody on here must have so info...
Bilbray deserves to be in Congress, and if he's not elected you can bet that Mexifornia will be worse off for it.
We need more individuals like Bilbray in office and less like that bland party hack, David Drier.
STATE SENATOR 35th District
Vote Count Percentage
TOM HARMAN (REP) 25384 38.6%
DIANE HARKEY (REP) 24772 37.7%
LARRY CABALLERO (DEM) 15589 23.7%
Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 78 of 723
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 513832
Precinct Registration 513832
Precinct Ballots Cast 2666 0.5%
Absentee Ballots Cast 63585 12.4%
Total Ballots Cast 66251 12.9%
http://www.oc.ca.gov/election/Live/35thSenP/results.htm
Too often true.
Where are you getting your numbers...
Where are you getting your numbers...
Try calraces.com, if all else fails. He's posting from time to time. Harman's leading slightly.
I did get the message, and the Arnold allusion was clear, but Busby's numbers were not materially affected by the many GOP candidates. In fact, to the extent they were, they were probably reduced. Cheers. Your grand unified theory that you have for every election, just might be a bit too grand.
66.5 percent now.
The San Diego site's header is not updating, but the numbers are:
FRANCINE BUSBY
45963
43.28%
BRIAN P. BILBRAY
16268
15.32%
ERIC ROACH
15197
14.31%
HOWARD KALOOGIAN
7856
7.40%
BILL MORROW
6148
5.79%
Those numbers are very close to a wrap. Bilbray is now a 90% odds on favorite to move on to the runoff. That will be a tight race, lean GOP still for the seat, but tight. The amount of money spent will magnify any mistakes the candidates make, and the fortunes of the parties themselves. The wild card will be whether squish or other dissaffected voters want to send a message. Specials are a cheap and effective way of doing so.
I agree with you I never understood the argument that busby is helped by having more candidates split their votes.
The more candidates there are hurts any candidate trying to get 50 percent. Each candidate has their own base and own network of resources.
The key will be having no republicans challenge bilbray in the primary which will be the same day as the special election.
Another key will having the voters for the two conservative candidates not stay home.
Also there is another dem running today so add both the dems total and they are around 45 percent and could climb more.
Dems will also have the runoff the same days as the governor's primary where 50 million is being spent to turn out the vote.
San Diego county did Busby a great favor by recommending to arnold to have the run off occur on primary day.
Other republicans might run against bilbray for the primary which would be the same day as the special election which would hurt him.
Also there will be some voters who come out to vote for the governor primary who wouldn't have shown up otherwise. Gop has no contested contest so the extra dems showing up will be added votes in busby's column.
Morrow on pace to come in fifth.
I admire you for believing, but it's a shame three conservatives had to split the vote. Looks like Bilbray's going to pull it off...
What is the total % or Republican vote? It might come down to the fact the libertain will not be on the June ballot and they swing to the pubbie.
Good points, but this race will have enough visibility, that it will generate its own energy.
Young is the only other Dem, so the vote is 55%-45%, just about the split between Kerry and Bush.
Precincts: 445
Counted: 296
Percentage: 66.5%
FRANCINE BUSBY 45963 43.28%
BRIAN P. BILBRAY 16268 15.32%
ERIC ROACH 15197 14.31%
HOWARD KALOOGIAN 7856 7.40%
BILL MORROW 6148 5.79%
ALAN UKE 4271 4.02%
RICHARD EARNEST 2360 2.22%
BILL HAUF 1725 1.62%
CHRIS YOUNG 1490 1.40%
SCOTT TURNER 1424 1.34%
WILLIAM GRIFFITH 917 0.86%
VICTOR E. RAMIREZ 734 0.69%
PAUL KING 662 0.62%
JEFF NEWSOME 491 0.46%
SCOTT ORREN 278 0.26%
DELECIA HOLT 209 0.20%
BILL BOYER 160 0.15%
MILTON GALE 45 0.04%
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