Those numbers are very close to a wrap. Bilbray is now a 90% odds on favorite to move on to the runoff. That will be a tight race, lean GOP still for the seat, but tight. The amount of money spent will magnify any mistakes the candidates make, and the fortunes of the parties themselves. The wild card will be whether squish or other dissaffected voters want to send a message. Specials are a cheap and effective way of doing so.
What is the total % or Republican vote? It might come down to the fact the libertain will not be on the June ballot and they swing to the pubbie.