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LIVE THREAD - 50TH CD SPECIAL ELECTION RESULTS - 18 Vie for Vacant House Seat in Ca.
AP Yahoo ^ | 4/11/06 | Allison Hoffman - ap

Posted on 04/11/2006 12:16:46 PM PDT by NormsRevenge

SAN DIEGO - Eighteen candidates in a solidly GOP district on the Southern California coast competed in a special election Tuesday for the congressional seat once held by Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for bribery.

Brian Bilbray, a former congressman-turned-lobbyist who was the choice of the GOP establishment; Republican businessman Eric Roach, who spent $1.8 million of his own money; and Democrat Francine Busby were considered the front-runners.

Cunningham represented the House district from 1993 until he resigned in disgrace late last year. In March, the former Vietnam War fighter ace was sentenced to more than eight years in federal prison for taking $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors.

Tuesday's race had a wide-open ballot, with 14 Republicans, two Democrats, one Libertarian and one independent. If no one got more than 50 percent of the vote, the top finisher from each party would compete in a runoff June 6.

The winner will serve out the remaining eight months of Cunningham's term, and will almost certainly try to hold on to the seat come November.

Republicans outnumber Democrats 3-to-2 in the wealthy district.

If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, the top finisher from each party competes in a June 6 contest, the same day as the primary for the midterm congressional elections.

An outright winner Tuesday or, more likely, the winner of the June contest takes a seat in Congress for the remaining eight months of Cunningham's term — and likely immediately begins campaigning to hold on to the seat come November.

With the GOP field crowded, Democrats hoped that Busby, who ran and lost to Cunningham in 2004, could score an upset, a prospect that her own campaign acknowledged was unlikely.

Voters faced an onslaught of negative campaign mailers and TV ads in the final hours before heading to the polls.

Bilbray, a surfer and one-time lifeguard, was attacked in a mailer from the California Republican Assembly, a grass-roots conservative group, that called Bilbray "a Democrat posing as a Republican."

The Bilbray campaign attacked Roach as a mystery man trying to buy an election. "His political campaign ads and mailers are everywhere. But until a few months ago, no one had ever heard of him," Bilbray's mailer said.

Former state Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian's campaign attempted to recover from an embarrassing misstep. Internet bloggers discovered that photos on his campaign Web site purportedly showing a tranquil Iraqi street scene had been taken in Istanbul, Turkey. The photos were removed.

With the GOP field busy attacking itself, national Republicans poured some $300,000 during the campaign's final week into TV ads criticizing Busby for accepting donations from lobbyists. A mailer from national Republicans claimed that the school board member and self-described soccer mom had voted to lay off teachers in 2003.

Busby retaliated by noting that Cunningham had given $2,000 of his campaign funds to national Republicans before he headed off to prison.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Government; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: 109th; 2006; 50th; bilbray; busby; dukecunningham; ericroach; kaloogian
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To: Torie

so looks like the repbulican there will get 2/3 of the vote in June?


141 posted on 04/11/2006 11:06:17 PM PDT by Paul8148
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To: Torie

"Why are you posting to yourself on your own thread regarding this election"

===

I sometime do that, because I am too lazy, or forget to take my name off, when I hit post, when I think of something else I forgot to say in my first post.

This thread wasn't about Arnold, I didn't say a word about Arnold, merely point out the circular fire squad mentality of the Republican party.


142 posted on 04/11/2006 11:06:32 PM PDT by FairOpinion (Dem Foreign Policy: SURRENDER to our enemies. Real conservatives don't help Dems get elected.)
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To: Torie

Thanks much but there are NO numbers there...that's where I keep going...this is so strange. Somebody on here must have so info...


143 posted on 04/11/2006 11:06:58 PM PDT by TatieBug
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To: dangus
You're not alone.

Bilbray deserves to be in Congress, and if he's not elected you can bet that Mexifornia will be worse off for it.

We need more individuals like Bilbray in office and less like that bland party hack, David Drier.

144 posted on 04/11/2006 11:07:44 PM PDT by Do not dub me shapka broham ("The moment that someone wants to forbid caricatures, that is the moment we publish them.")
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To: TatieBug
ooohhh... tight race!
STATE SENATOR 35th District  
                   Vote Count  Percentage  
TOM HARMAN (REP)       25384    38.6%  
DIANE HARKEY (REP)     24772    37.7%  
LARRY CABALLERO (DEM)  15589    23.7%  

Registration and Turnout  
Completed Precincts: 78 of 723  
                          Reg/Turnout  Percentage  
Total Registered Voters    513832   
Precinct Registration      513832   
Precinct Ballots Cast        2666         0.5%  
Absentee Ballots Cast       63585        12.4%  
Total Ballots Cast          66251        12.9%  

http://www.oc.ca.gov/election/Live/35thSenP/results.htm

145 posted on 04/11/2006 11:08:08 PM PDT by calcowgirl
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To: FairOpinion
...merely point out the circular fire squad mentality of the Republican party.

Too often true.

146 posted on 04/11/2006 11:09:03 PM PDT by Do not dub me shapka broham ("The moment that someone wants to forbid caricatures, that is the moment we publish them.")
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To: ArmstedFragg

Where are you getting your numbers...


147 posted on 04/11/2006 11:09:31 PM PDT by TatieBug
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To: ArmstedFragg

Where are you getting your numbers...


148 posted on 04/11/2006 11:09:35 PM PDT by TatieBug
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To: Paul8148
No. Don't let primary numbers fool you, particularly when one party has a contested primary, and the other doesn't, and it is an open primary, because it is a special election. But it is a fairly strong lean GOP district, and the GOP nominee will be a heavy favorite in the runoff special general, particularly given that state legislative elections are so anonymous, in anonymous urban California. Few have a clue who the candidates are, or care, and just vote party.
149 posted on 04/11/2006 11:09:53 PM PDT by Torie
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To: TatieBug

Try calraces.com, if all else fails. He's posting from time to time. Harman's leading slightly.


150 posted on 04/11/2006 11:10:50 PM PDT by ArmstedFragg
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To: TatieBug

http://www.sdvote.org/election/special.xml


151 posted on 04/11/2006 11:11:58 PM PDT by ArmstedFragg
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To: FairOpinion

I did get the message, and the Arnold allusion was clear, but Busby's numbers were not materially affected by the many GOP candidates. In fact, to the extent they were, they were probably reduced. Cheers. Your grand unified theory that you have for every election, just might be a bit too grand.


152 posted on 04/11/2006 11:13:06 PM PDT by Torie
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To: All

66.5 percent now.
The San Diego site's header is not updating, but the numbers are:

FRANCINE BUSBY
45963
43.28%

BRIAN P. BILBRAY
16268
15.32%

ERIC ROACH
15197
14.31%

HOWARD KALOOGIAN
7856
7.40%

BILL MORROW
6148
5.79%


153 posted on 04/11/2006 11:14:32 PM PDT by ArmstedFragg
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To: ArmstedFragg

Those numbers are very close to a wrap. Bilbray is now a 90% odds on favorite to move on to the runoff. That will be a tight race, lean GOP still for the seat, but tight. The amount of money spent will magnify any mistakes the candidates make, and the fortunes of the parties themselves. The wild card will be whether squish or other dissaffected voters want to send a message. Specials are a cheap and effective way of doing so.


154 posted on 04/11/2006 11:19:53 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie

I agree with you I never understood the argument that busby is helped by having more candidates split their votes.

The more candidates there are hurts any candidate trying to get 50 percent. Each candidate has their own base and own network of resources.

The key will be having no republicans challenge bilbray in the primary which will be the same day as the special election.

Another key will having the voters for the two conservative candidates not stay home.

Also there is another dem running today so add both the dems total and they are around 45 percent and could climb more.

Dems will also have the runoff the same days as the governor's primary where 50 million is being spent to turn out the vote.

San Diego county did Busby a great favor by recommending to arnold to have the run off occur on primary day.

Other republicans might run against bilbray for the primary which would be the same day as the special election which would hurt him.

Also there will be some voters who come out to vote for the governor primary who wouldn't have shown up otherwise. Gop has no contested contest so the extra dems showing up will be added votes in busby's column.


155 posted on 04/11/2006 11:21:20 PM PDT by santorumlite
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To: Carrie Greene

Morrow on pace to come in fifth.

I admire you for believing, but it's a shame three conservatives had to split the vote. Looks like Bilbray's going to pull it off...


156 posted on 04/11/2006 11:21:27 PM PDT by The Old Hoosier (Right makes might.)
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To: Torie

What is the total % or Republican vote? It might come down to the fact the libertain will not be on the June ballot and they swing to the pubbie.


157 posted on 04/11/2006 11:22:01 PM PDT by Paul8148
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To: santorumlite

Good points, but this race will have enough visibility, that it will generate its own energy.


158 posted on 04/11/2006 11:22:36 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Paul8148

Young is the only other Dem, so the vote is 55%-45%, just about the split between Kerry and Bush.


159 posted on 04/11/2006 11:24:25 PM PDT by Torie
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To: ArmstedFragg
Precincts:   445
Counted:     296
Percentage:  66.5% 

FRANCINE BUSBY      45963     43.28%
BRIAN P. BILBRAY    16268     15.32%
ERIC ROACH          15197     14.31%
HOWARD KALOOGIAN     7856     7.40%
BILL MORROW          6148     5.79%
ALAN UKE             4271     4.02%
RICHARD EARNEST      2360     2.22%
BILL HAUF            1725     1.62%
CHRIS YOUNG          1490     1.40%
SCOTT TURNER         1424     1.34%
WILLIAM GRIFFITH      917     0.86%
VICTOR E. RAMIREZ     734     0.69%
PAUL KING             662     0.62%
JEFF NEWSOME          491     0.46%
SCOTT ORREN           278     0.26%
DELECIA HOLT          209     0.20%
BILL BOYER            160     0.15%
MILTON GALE            45     0.04%
          

160 posted on 04/11/2006 11:24:41 PM PDT by calcowgirl
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