I agree with you I never understood the argument that busby is helped by having more candidates split their votes.
The more candidates there are hurts any candidate trying to get 50 percent. Each candidate has their own base and own network of resources.
The key will be having no republicans challenge bilbray in the primary which will be the same day as the special election.
Another key will having the voters for the two conservative candidates not stay home.
Also there is another dem running today so add both the dems total and they are around 45 percent and could climb more.
Dems will also have the runoff the same days as the governor's primary where 50 million is being spent to turn out the vote.
San Diego county did Busby a great favor by recommending to arnold to have the run off occur on primary day.
Other republicans might run against bilbray for the primary which would be the same day as the special election which would hurt him.
Also there will be some voters who come out to vote for the governor primary who wouldn't have shown up otherwise. Gop has no contested contest so the extra dems showing up will be added votes in busby's column.
Good points, but this race will have enough visibility, that it will generate its own energy.
Another key will having the voters for the two conservative candidates not stay home.
I think the two points are contradictory. You want exactly one conservative on the ballot, to help turn out conservatives, so that Bilbray wins the special over Busby.
The primary can go either way, it doesn't matter, no Dem is going to win here in November.