Riskiest Place to Buy a Home

Voice of San Diego ^ | 4/06/2006 | Will Carless

[ex-Texan]

The area's home prices have a 60-percent chance of dropping, one of many factors making San Diego the riskiest real estate market in the nation, according to a quarterly report put out by a California mortgage insurer.

The report, put out by the Bay Area insurance company PMI Group, is well-respected by experts, who said it usually gives an accurate picture of the state of the nation's 50 largest home-buying markets. However, they stressed that the report is merely the latest in a long line of analyses that point to something the industry already knows: The nation's housing market is cooling, and San Diego is ahead of the curve.

"You guys are leading the nation -- congratulations," remarked Chris Thornberg, a senior analyst at the University of California, Los Angeles Anderson Forecast.

Last year at this time, the quarterly report ranked the San Diego region as the fifth-riskiest market in the nation. That report put Boston as the riskiest.

The report bases its ratings for each individual market on three factors: How well the local economy is doing; how much and how quickly home prices are appreciating; and the affordability of housing in that market.

San Diego's took a hard knock because of the third criterion. The area's homes are among the least affordable in the nation, according to PMI's data, and that means the people who buy them are more likely to default on their mortgages despite the relatively strong local economy. Hence San Diego's high-risk rating.

The area is also suffering from a slowed price appreciation.

In the last few years, San Diego's risk factor has been tempered by consistent price increases. But those increases dropped dramatically from last quarter, compounding the poor score the area received in the report.

Gary London, president of The London Group Realty Advisors in San Diego, said the report adds to the "parade of statistical indicators" showing that the real estate market is slowing. However, he doesn't think that slowdown is going to affect most homeowners, but only people on the fringes of the market.

That means people who have bought in the last year and who need to sell this year, or people who have entered into mortgages that they simply cannot afford, London said. Those people should probably be concerned at the signals the market is giving off, he said.

Indeed, even if prices do drop, London said, that's only going to open the door to a lot of people who have been watching the market from the sidelines, unwilling to get into the action. If prices drop, even slightly, he said, there are a lot of people waiting to buy.

Stephanie Corns, a spokeswoman for PMI, said the purpose of the report is to better inform home buyers and sellers about the real estate market. She said that people looking to buy a home need to consider how risky an area is before buying there. That's especially important when a buyer is considering buying their home using a non-traditional loan such as an interest-only mortgage, she said.

"Some of the exotic (loan) products transfer a lot of the risks to the borrower, so you really need to gauge what amount of risk you are comfortable taking on. Are you comfortable having a lot of risk in your mortgage and a lot of risk in your market area?"

However, Corns stressed that PMI still considers buying a home to be a safe investment on the whole, even in risky markets like San Diego. She said the company's research has shown that real estate prices always increase in the long term, so buying a house is always a sensible long-term strategy.

Alan Gin, a professor of economics at the University of San Diego's Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate, said the report is certainly worth considering for home-buyers before they take out a mortgage, but he pointed out that the riskiness of a market is not likely to be the defining factor for a potential buyer.

"It gives you more information, but you probably shouldn't base your decision exclusively on this information," Gin said.

Topping out the top five riskiest markets in the nation were Santa Ana/Anaheim/Irvine; Boston; Nassau/Suffolk, New York; Riverside/San Bernardino; and Sacramento.

[Keyga8tor]

Hey Dog,
They stand in line for my house in Coronado!

[Pukin Dog]

I live in Mira Mesa.

Is your son licensed?

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

San Diego?! I would have guessed Detroit. ;^)

[socal_parrot]

The National Association of Realtors thinks the market is stablizing...

Pending Home Sales Leveling Out, Market Balancing

Adjustable rate mortgages are decreasing too

[VegasCowboy]

Yeah, and it seems like kind of a worthless stat. How much will it drop is the real question. If it drops 5% over the next two years, well, who cares?

From what I've read in Ex-T's posts of late, we have a 100% chance of not only prices dropping, but of experiencing a cataclysmic drop in values that will be so severe we'll all be lining up at soup kitchens and begging for jobs at McDonalds.

This report is actually pretty tame.

[Petronski]

Try to get him banned?

Oh no. Not me. That's not my call.

[Pukin Dog]

Title is probably the wrong word, before the house is paid off, but the home is NOT worthless in most cases. This is because invariably, there is a demographic of people (28-35) who bought more house then they could really afford to due creative financing. When I find these kids, all they want is to get out of the loan without having their credit destroyed. Moving them out is cheap compared to what I get in return, and if there is a young mortgage, I can always find a renter to put positive flow on the property after I've put enough money into it to make the place pristine. None of my properties are negative at the moment, and I don't expect that will happen with the home prices/interest rates/etc.

You do have to be selective, but you don't buy anything that you cant hold without a renter, but even then, it is a deductible loss.

[Pukin Dog]

Man, I would LOVE to get into Coronado. But there is a stampede every time someone puts a sign out. Also, that area is older and conservative. Not too many stupid greedy kids over there who bought too much house.

[LurkingSince'98]

yes, he passed it last year.

lurking'

[wideminded]

When I see the gold commercials on TV I want to scream and run in the other direction.

The thing that amazes me are the commercials for replicas of gold coins that originally had a value of $10. They show an image of a gold coin that fills the screen as it spins around. An original $10 gold piece was smaller than a dime.

[Khurkris]

"Santa Ana/Anaheim/Irvine"

Se habla Mejicano?

[ex-Texan]

What's a matter, booby? You were posting before as banned poster Starboardlist. (Obvious to all). Prevously, you begged me not to tell your identity. Those FRmails are all available, listingright. The screen name 'listing right' infers you make your money as a realtor by listing properties correctly. I have not made a single dollar in profit from FR. Please tell the moderator how much money you make by listing homes for sale.

[Atlas Sneezed]

Locking yourself into a mortgage in this volatility is nuts.

---

I disagree. One is never "locked in" to a mortgage, because you can usually pay it off by selling the property, you can refinance it if rates drop further.

And if you think that there may be some inflation in our future (look at any commodity price if in doubt), debt is the ideal place to be. Let the government printing office pay off a major part of your home!

[Pukin Dog]

Well, unless he has a ton of capital to play with, he should hook up with a lending firm and build a rolodex. Become a deal-maker for others until he can do some of his own. He can also build some capital by flipping, but not too much in this county. He should play around in Oceanside (Marines coming and going) or Vista, and all the way to Ramona. When he has the dough to run his own holding company, he should go for it. Nobody likes to share commissions.

[Keyga8tor]

Dog,
Hopefully, the Nav will send me back to Coronado for my last tour. I miss SD. Bought a place in SF Bay with a 5 year fixed (out in 3). Put 35k into it and will make that plus! See you next year!

[LurkingSince'98]

thanks Pukin,

I'll pass you advice on, maybe you'll run into each other sometime.

regards,
lurking'

[Smogger]

Ontario: Mexico's second most dangerous city.

Hey I resent that. Ontario was a great place to buy for me, conveniently located with good services, and it's not hardly as dangerous or Mexican as say Pomona, Fontanna, Rialto, Baldwin Park, Azusa, Compton, or about a hundred other cities in California.

BTW: You would have probably tripled your money if you had, bought a house any any one of the above cities five years ago.

[dk/coro]

Re the desirability of moving to San Diego...

Not this guy!

We "cashed out" in Coronado in '01 -- and could not get out fast enough...after 30 years.

Between the abominable traffic, wet-back crime, and filthy black soot from the aircraft, Coronado had become nothing but an overpriced resort fiasco -- with every doctor in Scottsdale buying up and leveling the old homes, to rebuild pieces of gaudy junk in their places. All over the island!

Forget it!

Come to Bullhead City, where you can be playing Hold-em in Laughlin with the boys in 15 minutes -- with only three stoplights in 7 miles to slow down your drive.

Works for me! **S**

[Pukin Dog]

You cant sell if the bank is holding 600K on you, and you can only get 500K for the house, right? This is happening all over the place right now, and these people want out big time. These are the zero-interest, no-down nuts who just had to have that big-ass lot. Both spouses are working 12hr days to pay that nut and never see each other. Credit cards are smokin' and payments are late, interest is rising on them like a flood about to drown them. At that point, should one of them lose their jobs, its me or bankruptcy. Who would you go to?

[Larry Lucido]

Side of a volcano? Straddling the San Andreas Fault? Muddy hillside? Mars?