Posted on 04/06/2006 3:14:09 PM PDT by ex-Texan
Suddenly, the realtor and mortgage brokers here on FR went ape crazy. I was even wrongfully accused of misrepresenting the contents of the report. I was vilified because the article referred to commercial lenders rather lenders specializing in residential real estate. That was a baseless allegation and was based upon a logical fallacy. The argument highlighted a distinction without any true significance.
Most commercial lenders have far more experience that residential lenders. All the commercial lenders I have dealt with over the years have college degrees. Many have MBA degrees. Most commercial lenders had years of residential lending experience before they were qualified to move up to the higher paying jobs. Most of the residential lenders I have met in the past 35 years are bank loan officers. In other words, a diligent teller who earned a promotion after taking a few certification courses.
And that was the sum and substance of that worthless attack leveled by Petronski and his realtor and/or mortgage broker groupies.
Say what you will. There is a housing bubble. Nearly everybody of importance in the lending business agrees. And the mere fact that a few of you attack me recklessly at every turn is not going to shut me up.
Like who?
I was vilified because the article referred to commercial lenders rather lenders specializing in residential real estate.
Why should we care what commercial lenders think?
All the commercial lenders I have dealt with over the years have college degrees. Many have MBA degrees.
Oh, then they must be right. LOL!!
Say what you will. There is a housing bubble.
So how far will prices drop? Will they drop to last years level?
And the mere fact that a few of you attack me recklessly at every turn is not going to shut me up.
Why don't you tell us again how grocery prices rose 30% in one month? That was funny!!
How much have housing prices gone up since you "saw" the bubble in hot markets in 2003? As I said, I expect a mild deflation myself - now - in hot markets. But I didn't see that in 2003. I saw that in 2005, as interest rates began their creep up combined with price levels. In fact I bought a house in the desert in California in 2003 (La Quinta), somewhat on an impulse. I liked the lot. I posted a pic of it in 2004 on this very site. It basically doubled in value since then. Did I expect that? No. Did I expect some appreciation? Yes. I thought housing prices in that market were somewhat undervalued, maybe by about 20%-25%. It turned out to be 50%, for some properties. And so it goes. Crude macro analyses just don't cut it. Really.
Most commercial lenders have far more experience that residential lenders. All the commercial lenders I have dealt with over the years have college degrees. Many have MBA degrees Most of the residential lenders I have met in the past 35 years are bank loan officers. In other words, a diligent teller who earned a promotion after taking a few certification courses.LOL!
All you need to have in California to be a loan officer, ANY loan officer, including commercial, is a Real Estate license...period....Yes that's right. The same person you despise selling houses at exorbitant burst the bubble prices can also do commercial loans under the same license in California.
Oh and what are the requirements for getting a Real Estate License to be a commercial loan officer?...Pass a test.
Your place will probably hold up to any bubble-burst a bit longer since this resort area will continue to be a magnet for well to do snowbirds and Canucks.
(Since we moved out here fulltime exactly four years ago, I'd guess our home has gone up - on paper - from the high 200's in 2002 to maybe 600 now.....but there are a ton of 'fersale' signs up this season!)
Oregon does not require any license to be a mortgage broker. You can be a convicted felon and still handle the paper work. I know a guy working as a mortgage broker for the past five years. He has a felony record in N.J. and works under a different name here. He tells an interesting tale about running from the mob back east. But the mob is active out here as well.
Well, don't count on appreciation to bail you out of whatever credit you extended. :)
The flip side is obvious to me as well. Houses that were purchased last year on the coast may fall 50% overnight. There are only low wage jobs on the coast. The entire coast has signs warning of 'Dangerous Tsunami Waves.' There are rumors all time time about quakes off the coast. Many of those house have been built right on or very near the beach. One 6.5 and millions in real estate could be washed away.
Things that make you go hmmmm. No repairs. No paint jobs. No termite damage to worry about. No roofs to repair at 10 grand. No expensive plumbing problems to finance. No cesspool problems to pay for, No heater breakdowns to pay for. No AC breakdowns to pay for. Nor Hurricanes, tornadoes or earthquakes to worry about.
Renting is a DREAM in this market. It's 50% cheaper, and without all the risks listed above. A no brainer in my book!
My stuff in Tigard/Cedar Hills hasn't doubled. It has gone maybe 30%-40% since 2000. I guess I picked the wrong zip codes!
Good choices, close to jobs and still small town feeling.
Well I finally go to the end of the thread and found a comment I can agree with. (yes that's a preposition at the end of my sentence) I did this in the 90s VA DC burbs. Rented a little tenant house until I bought a house I could afford in '98... and the value has tripled in the last 8 years. When I get ready to leave this area my only hope is that it holds the value.
You know a guy? Or are you talking about yourself?
Not me. I'm disabled and retired. My last reply to you ever Toddster.
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