Riskiest Place to Buy a Home

Voice of San Diego ^ | 4/06/2006 | Will Carless

[ex-Texan]

The area's home prices have a 60-percent chance of dropping, one of many factors making San Diego the riskiest real estate market in the nation, according to a quarterly report put out by a California mortgage insurer.

The report, put out by the Bay Area insurance company PMI Group, is well-respected by experts, who said it usually gives an accurate picture of the state of the nation's 50 largest home-buying markets. However, they stressed that the report is merely the latest in a long line of analyses that point to something the industry already knows: The nation's housing market is cooling, and San Diego is ahead of the curve.

"You guys are leading the nation -- congratulations," remarked Chris Thornberg, a senior analyst at the University of California, Los Angeles Anderson Forecast.

Last year at this time, the quarterly report ranked the San Diego region as the fifth-riskiest market in the nation. That report put Boston as the riskiest.

The report bases its ratings for each individual market on three factors: How well the local economy is doing; how much and how quickly home prices are appreciating; and the affordability of housing in that market.

San Diego's took a hard knock because of the third criterion. The area's homes are among the least affordable in the nation, according to PMI's data, and that means the people who buy them are more likely to default on their mortgages despite the relatively strong local economy. Hence San Diego's high-risk rating.

The area is also suffering from a slowed price appreciation.

In the last few years, San Diego's risk factor has been tempered by consistent price increases. But those increases dropped dramatically from last quarter, compounding the poor score the area received in the report.

Gary London, president of The London Group Realty Advisors in San Diego, said the report adds to the "parade of statistical indicators" showing that the real estate market is slowing. However, he doesn't think that slowdown is going to affect most homeowners, but only people on the fringes of the market.

That means people who have bought in the last year and who need to sell this year, or people who have entered into mortgages that they simply cannot afford, London said. Those people should probably be concerned at the signals the market is giving off, he said.

Indeed, even if prices do drop, London said, that's only going to open the door to a lot of people who have been watching the market from the sidelines, unwilling to get into the action. If prices drop, even slightly, he said, there are a lot of people waiting to buy.

Stephanie Corns, a spokeswoman for PMI, said the purpose of the report is to better inform home buyers and sellers about the real estate market. She said that people looking to buy a home need to consider how risky an area is before buying there. That's especially important when a buyer is considering buying their home using a non-traditional loan such as an interest-only mortgage, she said.

"Some of the exotic (loan) products transfer a lot of the risks to the borrower, so you really need to gauge what amount of risk you are comfortable taking on. Are you comfortable having a lot of risk in your mortgage and a lot of risk in your market area?"

However, Corns stressed that PMI still considers buying a home to be a safe investment on the whole, even in risky markets like San Diego. She said the company's research has shown that real estate prices always increase in the long term, so buying a house is always a sensible long-term strategy.

Alan Gin, a professor of economics at the University of San Diego's Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate, said the report is certainly worth considering for home-buyers before they take out a mortgage, but he pointed out that the riskiness of a market is not likely to be the defining factor for a potential buyer.

"It gives you more information, but you probably shouldn't base your decision exclusively on this information," Gin said.

Topping out the top five riskiest markets in the nation were Santa Ana/Anaheim/Irvine; Boston; Nassau/Suffolk, New York; Riverside/San Bernardino; and Sacramento.

[ex-Texan]

I never emailed you anything. View the photo here.

[ex-Texan]

BS

[New Girl]

I didn't say you emailed me personally - I meant the link that you posted - if you copy the MLS number and enter it in the database you do not get a picture.

If you're not getting a commission for driving traffic to your own site, why do you ALWAYS include links in your posts to your own blogs? Why not just post the article and leave it at that?

[SuziQ]

They must not think it is as risky a market as the article suggests.

[ex-Texan]

Perhaps you would be happy to buy this house for $ 1,257,000?

The property above is located in Lake View, IL and it is currently on the market for $1,279,000. At a 6 percent interest rate, the financing costs are $7,600 per month. Taxes are currently $6,000 per year and likely to go up to $10,000. However, the property has two tenants, giving a combined income of $2,500 per month, with a contract that continues until April next year.

The first point of our lesson is self-evident. A new owner who buys this property will lose at least $5,000 per month if he rents it out.

Perhaps the answer is in my post.

[It's me]

Really!

We've lived in Penasquitos for the past 17 years and people keep asking us when we are going to move.
We have 5 kids. Three are gone. One is leaving in September for college and the other hopes to go to West Point in two years.

We almost own our home.

[lewislynn]

They must not think it is as risky a market as the article suggests.

San Diego, California...I don't think so either.

[lewislynn]

Much to your dismay, one rare example isn't a trend....I noticed it's still for sale, let us know how the new buyers (if any) do, then you MAY have a point.

[New Girl]

Good point.

[Toddsterpatriot]

At a 6 percent interest rate, the financing costs are $7,600 per month.

Actually, the financing cost would be $6,395 per month.

A new owner who buys this property will lose at least $5,000 per month if he rents it out.

You understand there is a difference between negative cash flow and losing money? Maybe not.

[ex-Texan]

My point has already been agreed upon by 66% of Mortgage Lenders in the U.S.

I do not need to prove anything to anybody.

[Always Right]

30 year, 20 year, and 15 year fixed mortgages are your friend. Anything else is like playing Russian Roulette.

The vast majority of people stay in their house less than 5 years. A 3-year arm would have saved them a ton of money.

[Petronski]

My point has already been agreed upon by 66% of Mortgage Lenders in the U.S.

NOT A SCIENTIFIC POLL.

[Pelham]

I'm in risky market #2.

Houses here were down 40% last time the RE market tripped on its shoelaces. This time the mania looks even crazier, so I'm betting we at least cut prices in half before the fun stops.

[surely_you_jest]

Bookmark for later review.

[Pelham]

Ignoring the thread would make sense, but it would also spoil their little game.

[napscoordinator]

The average military person could not afford to buy a house here.

True forgot about the prices.

[Petronski]

Talk to Petronski

No courtesy, eh?

You must ping those you mention. It's a rule.

I have made no claims about real estate prices in San Diego.

Try to be a man next time and ping the person you mention by name.

[Petronski]

I've got a better real estate deal for you, Petronski. This Seattle shack listed for only $ 260,000. Buy it, now!

I am not in the market for RE in Seattle, and I don't take advice from blogpimpin' fools.

[Petronski]

Keep your private messages to yourself.