Posted on 03/29/2006 4:27:02 PM PST by thoughtomator
HOW THE GOP CAN SURVIVE THE IMMIGRATION DEBATE
By DICK MORRIS
March 29, 2006 - The immigration bill pending in Congress poses as crucial a test for GOP efforts to reach out to Hispanic voters as the 1964 Civil Rights Act did in determining the future partisan preferences of America's African-Americans.
In 1964, the Republican Party, led by Barry Goldwater, was painted as sacrificing the interests of civil rights to its goal of attracting Southern support, although Republicans backed the bill in far greater numbers than Democrats did. But when Goldwater ran for president rejecting civil rights legislation, it doomed GOP chances among black voters for at least the next 40 years.
Will the Republican need to appease its anti-immigration base similarly vitiate President Bush's efforts to appeal to Hispanic voters?
Hispanics, let's remember, were the swing voter group in 2004. Having voted for Al Gore by 30 points in 2000, they sufficiently trusted Bush to back Sen. John Kerry by only an eight-point margin. If the Republican Party now turns its back on these newly swing Latino voters, it may permanently lose its ability to win America's fastest-growing voter group, perhaps dooming the party altogether.
But the demands of the GOP base must also be accommodated. Here's how:
One must separately consider the three key elements of immigration reform under discussion: The border fence, the guest-worker program and the criminalization of illegal aliens and those who employ them.
The GOP base wants a fence. It is vital to the entire concept of whether or not we can control our borders. All efforts to beef up manpower on the border have failed to stem the daily flow of illegal immigrants from Mexico. A fence is the only way to do it. By backing a fence and demonstrably taking control of our southern border, the Republican Party will appease the demands of its base.
But to prevent disaster among Latino voters, it must accompany the fence with a more liberal policy on guest workers and criminalization.
Simply put, the fence must have a gate that swings open for immigrants we want and need. To avoid permanently antagonizing our southern neighbors and to keep the labor supply on which so much of American business and prosperity depend, we need a guest-worker program.
The GOP base, happy with the fence, will probably go along with it. Whatever the Congress needs to do to differentiate the guest-worker program from amnesty it should do, but it must pass a generous guest-worker program. (If it is necessary for those here illegally to return to Mexico and reenter as registered and enrolled guest workers, to convince the right that a guest-worker program is not amnesty, so be it).
With a 4.7 percent unemployment rate, we will be slitting our own throats by denying our economy access to Mexican workers. We just need to make them legal, not illegal. With a border fence to enforce the difference, a guest-worker program will work politically.
And it is also important for the Republicans to avoid symbolic acts like making it a felony to be here illegally or to employ someone who is. The same practical deterrence is quite possible through the fence, and merely upgrading the jail time from a misdemeanor to a felony won't make much practical difference.
Judges, in any event, are not about to crowd our jails with millions of felony illegal entrants. Deportation is and will be the answer to those we catch -- and deportation has new meaning with a fence in place.
Yes to the fence, yes to guest workers and no to greater criminalization are the keys to giving the Republican Party access to Latino votes in the future while coping with an issue that roils tens of millions of Americans.
In other words.....
We are now one of the largest Spanish-speaking nations in the world. We're a major source of Latin music, journalism and culture. Just go to Miami, or San Antonio, Los Angeles, Chicago or West New York, New Jersey ... and close your eyes and listen. You could just as easily be in Santo Domingo or Santiago, or San Miguel de Allende. For years our nation has debated this change -- some have praised it and others have resented it. By nominating me, my party has made a choice to welcome the new America. As I speak, we are celebrating the success of democracy in Mexico. George Bush from a campaign speech in Miami, August 2000. |
Here is an excerpt of a good critique of that speech:
In equating our intimate historic bonds to our mother country and to Canada with our ties to Mexico, W. shows a staggering ignorance of the civilizational facts of life. The reason we are so close to Britain and Canada is that we share with them a common historical culture, language, literature, and legal system, as well as similar standards of behavior, expectations of public officials, and so on. My Bush Epiphany By Lawrence Auster
Yes to the fence
No to guest workers
Yes to greater criminalization
Ah. He wants us to "triangulate" our sovereignty.
Sure, politics before the safety and security of Americans.
The genie cannot go back in the bottle, we have seen the true nature of this bunch in Washington.
"The immigration bill pending in Congress poses as crucial a test for GOP efforts to reach out to Hispanic voters as the 1964 Civil Rights Act did in determining the future partisan preferences of America's African-Americans."
He may believe it, it may be sold as that, but that is not what it is. And the comparison to 1964 is absurd.
"But to prevent disaster among Latino voters, it must accompany the fence with a more liberal policy on guest workers and criminalization."
No, the way to gain more is to promote conservative values and tougher illegal immigration enforcement without being labeled as racist, which Bush and the big money are set out to prove.
I doubt Dickie ever talked to a "Latino" voter.
A true and correct statement
This is what we will get in the long run after it gets watered down, filtered, pureed and massaged by the Congress
If, as the author suggests, the US were to create a liberal guest worker program, there would be no demand for illegals. If there were no demand for illegals, illegals would not be entering the US. If illegals are not entering the US, there is no need for a fence.
I'm already a member.
Can you believe how racist MEXICO's immigration laws still are against us gringos? For a comparison:
http://www.directory.com.mx/immigration
Why doesn't the media cover this issue yet?
I hate to say it, but I agree with every word. I know everyone is angry about illegal immigration, but if you don't live in California you don't know the half of it. Everyone suffers from illegal immigration, but Pete Wilson's support of Prop 187 doomed California to a decade of dominance by the Democrats, which is 10 times worse.
I hope I can find a copy of the speech he is almost done giving on the floor.
sw
Nah if they want hispanics votes that bad I say let em have em.
Of course I don't think it is a win-win when they are trading my vote for theirs.
I will NEVER vote for one of the traitorous pukes again. I will abstain from voting instead.
Ping me to it if you find it, ok? I have to get offline. TIA.
How about FIRST protecting AMERICAN CITIZENS!
I bought "Off with their Heads". In the first chapter he tears the NYT apart, but the last paragraph he says he still buys it and reads it. That bottomed out my respect-o-meter. I never finished the book either.
Why would anyone pay attention to the clinton but boy toe sucker.
Yes for a complete fence, Pacific to Brownsville.
NO GUEST WORKERS!
Throw every employer of illegals, including homeowners, in the slammer!
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