My Immigration Advice to the GOP

FrontPageMagazine.com ^ | March 30, 2006 | Dick Morris

[Dead Dog]

I clicked the link you provided and found zero discussion of illegals or the taxes they pay or the govt. services they use.

"But immigrants also pay taxes. The present value of lifetime earnings for the typical immigrant man is $380,000. With 7.6 million working immigrants (both men and women), total earnings of immigrants are at most $2.9 trillion, of which about 40 percent, or $1.2 trillion, are paid in taxes of all forms. Because 3 percent of total revenues are allocated to cash welfare benefits, immigrants pay about $36 billion ($1.2 trillion times .03) in taxes to fund welfare programs. Comparing the $36 billion that immigrants contribute to welfare to the $56 billion they consume, immigrants consume $20 billion more over their lifetimes than they contribute. Thus, the welfare system causes U.S. natives to lose about $1.1 billion per year (in present value terms). Subtracting this $1.1 billion from the $5 billion annual increase in national income, the United States benefits from immigration, but the economic gains are small. "

I used this as a conservative example, assuming Illegals pay less the legal, and use equivelent services.

[Dead Dog]

The point Sowell makes is that the subsidies are controllable, and the freemarket would balance out to a lower price without sub-legal wages. Hence, there does not necessary have to be cost push inflation.

[Reagan 76]

...the sad part is that most of the land the Boers settled was unoccupied...

[Fee]

Hispanic breakdown was 30 for GWB and 70 for Kerry. I remember the GOP strategy need to break 27 percent of Hispanics and exceed 10 percent of Blacks to win. If your numbers (55 vs 45) are correct, why should the GOP and other politicians fear offending Hispanics on immigration issues?

[staytrue]

If your numbers (55 vs 45) are correct, why should the GOP and other politicians fear offending Hispanics on immigration issues?

Because everyone else is locked into their positions. Blacks, single white women, gays, union people vote dem. Single white men, doctors, small business men vote repub. Hispanics and married people are the swing voters.

FYI, hispanics split 70-30 for GORE, and went 55-45 for Kerry.

[Fee]

It will get worst for the GOP. The new bill will favor the Latino population growth in the US. If they break the vote along 45/55 lines, the Dems will win more elections. In the short run, life is going to change in the US, inner city blacks and blue collar whites will be the first losers in this new demographic change. Our taxes will go up as we must shore up our schools and public hospital, and God knows what new entitlements these Hispanics are going to demand from our government. The only hope left for the GOP is the white Dem blue collar worker and the inner city blacks will be frustrated by the depression of wages in the shrinking service/manufacturing sector as they have to compete against a huge pool of Hispanic laborers, they might cross over and vote for the GOP conservatives.

[mthom]

Without enforcement (which history shows us is more than likely) illegal and legal wouldnt matter. A fence makes even tepid enforcement effective.

[Ben Ficklin]

Immigration reform has always been the solution, regardless of whose reform wins out. If the US had allowed an adequate number of new citizens, guest workers, or a combination of the two, there would be no illegal problem.

As for the fence, it will be built and it will be a waste of money. But that was the agreement and it is more important to stick with the agreement.

[mthom]

Unless those new citizen, guest worker, or combo spots were all reserved for mexicans then they would still be trying to get in. Mexico pushes them out as much as we pull them in.