No problem here.
Posted on 03/13/2006 10:10:32 AM PST by blam
What You Should Do to Prepare for an Epidemic
Stock Up on Essentials and Have an 'Outbreak Plan'
How To Protect Yourself
Bird Flu
How Would You Know If You Had Avian Flu?
A Bit of Context on the Bird Flu Threat
How To Protect Yourself
By LARA SETRAKIAN
March 12, 2006 — Will there be an outbreak of avian flu that threatens humans? Many experts disagree on when or if a human pandemic will occur, but do say there is a chance that the virus could mutate, leading to widespread infection. In that case, the best thing you and your family can do right now is to prepare for that possibility.
Here's what you need to know to help keep yourself healthy.
Stock up on Essentials
If there is an avian flu pandemic, you'll want to minimize your chance of catching it by staying indoors; you might even be required to stay home if the government asks that people remain in quarantine or "shelter in place." Stocking up today on at least seven days' worth of essentials such as water, nonperishable food, emergency and medical supplies will help you get through an extended time at home if an outbreak happens. Once you've purchased these items, store them in a place where you will not be tempted to dip into them for everyday use. See the checklist below for guidelines on what and how much you need.
Have an Outbreak Plan
It may feel odd or uncomfortable to talk to family members and loved ones about the worst-case pandemic scenario. But if that scenario strikes, you'll all be much better off if you have a plan decided on and ready. Talk with your friends and family about how you'd respond to an epidemic. Figure out how you would care for them and what your first response and responsibilities would be; this is an especially important conversation to have with those with special care needs. Get involved with local groups and community efforts aimed at preparing for a pandemic. If your community has no program in place yet, find out how you and your neighbors can get one started.
Pick up the Habits of Healthy Behavior
The habits that can help keep you healthy in an outbreak are the same good health habits that can keep you from catching the common cold: maintain a balanced diet, exercise regularly and get sufficient rest. Particularly in a flu outbreak situation, it will be important to wash your hands thoroughly and often, reminding loved ones — especially children — to do the same. Be diligent about covering coughs and sneezes with tissues, teaching any children in your family to do the same. Also teach children to stay away from others as much as possible if they are sick and stay home from work or school if you are sick.
Know Your Emergency Contacts and Information Compile the phone numbers you'd need in case of the emergency, keeping the list somewhere safe and visible. Make sure everyone in your household knows where to find it. According to the Department of Health and Human Services, you should include information for:
Local and out-of-town personal emergency contacts
Hospitals near your work, home and school
Family physician
Your state public health department (full list at www.cdc.gov/other.htm#states)
Pharmacy
Employer contact and emergency information
School contact and emergency information
Religious/spiritual organization
Also, know your essential health information such as blood type, allergies, past or current medical conditions, and current medications and their dosages. Make a list of that essential information for all the members of your household. Keep that list safe and make sure everyone in your household knows where it is.
HHS has sample sheets that you can print out and fill in with all your essential contact and health information.
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/planguide/InformationSheet.pdf
What Else Will I Need
Make sure you have:
Food and nonperishable items, such as ready-to-eat canned meats, fruits, vegetables, and soups, protein or fruit bars, dry cereal or granola, peanut butter or nuts, dried fruit, crackers, canned juices, bottled water, canned or jarred baby food and formula, and pet food.
Medical and practical items, such as prescriptions drugs and medical supplies such as glucose and blood-pressure monitoring equipment, soap and water, or alcohol-based hand wash, medicines for fever, such as acetaminophen or ibuprofen, thermometer, anti-diarrheal medication, vitamins, fluids with electrolytes, cleansing agent/soap, flashlight, batteries, portable radio, manual can opener, garbage bags and tissues, toilet paper, and disposable diapers.
Source: the Department of Health and Human Services
The stuff sold in US supermarkets (i.e. Albertson's, etc) generally sucks and is all soggy. If you can find an oriental market specialty grocer, they will generally have big jars of the fresh crunchy stuff...
Good deal....last time I checked online at various places, it was backordered. The local gunshop has been sold out of any Russian x39 for months. I think Ivan's been selling the bulk of his production to Iran. 8^(
I'll probably snatch some up at next weekend's gun show.
Sure, there will be sick cops and national guardsmen. I'm just not automatically assuming mass hysteria and a collapse of civilization. This is an extremely well-organized society. So, the breathless tidings of doom from random internet posters aren't terribly persuasive.
you are a "sheeple"...you will be the first one when you run out to say to me that I should "share" my supplies.....NOT
I have no interest in your supplies. I can take care of myself, thanks.
Katrina? Rita? FEMA response? City government response? State government response? I'd hate to see it if we hadn't been so "well-organized".
No problem here.
"Katrina? Rita? FEMA response? City government response? State government response? I'd hate to see it if we hadn't been so "well-organized"."
That's exactly the point that some of us are trying to get across. Do no rely on anyone but yourself! The government is not going to be there to bail you out, and even if they get there a few days later, never assume that they will. Use American individual know-how and prep. Always be prepared for at least a week on your own. It requires little else but to think ahead, then act. What will I need? What will my family need? How much stuff is in the larder at any given time? (Most people have about a week's worth of food, but are short on water), What can I do now just in case?
Proverbs 6:6 -- Go to the ant, O sluggard, Observe her ways and be wise, 7 Which, having no chief, Officer or ruler, 8 Prepares her food in the summer and gathers her provision in the harvest. 9 How long will you lie down, O sluggard? When will you arise from your sleep? 10 "A little sleep, a little slumber, A little folding of the hands to rest"-- 11 Your poverty will come in like a vagabond And your need like an armed man.
thank will link this to Threat Matrix!
I feegered you would. :)
An entire city was covered in water, with little or no access for authorities.
Bird flu, on the other hand, will be fairly spread out over the country, but will not do any actual damage to our infrastructure.
Should people plan for bad events? Certainly. But even back when the Influenza epidemic hit after WWI, our society did not fall apart. And we were not as good at dealing with medical disasters back then.
Incredibly poor analogy.
Living in earthquake country, it's always a good idea to be prepared for a week or so of self-sufficiency.
Yup. Same here in hurricane country.
Avian Flu Crisis: BMO Nesbitt Burns Economic Update
Source: http://www.perssupport.nl/Home/Persberichten/Actueel?itemId=76652
TORONTO, Canada, March 13 /PRNewswire/ --
- Human Infection Still Very Limited but Lack of Preparedness and Planning Could be Devastating
Avian flu is spreading rapidly in the bird population, but it is still extremely difficult for humans to become infected.
According to Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, BMO Nesbitt Burns, there is a good deal of misinformation triggering unnecessary fear and economic cost. Human infection generally requires direct exposure to sick or dead poultry. This is most likely in areas where backyard birds live in close contact with people - generally in parts of Asia, Africa and the Middle East. A human H5N1 pandemic, if it were to occur, would likely be triggered in the emerging world, rather than in Europe or North America.
In her report titled The Avian Flu Crisis: An Economic Update, Dr. Cooper explains that, unlike other natural disasters or terrorism, pandemics are prolonged and pervasive, so the net economic loss is substantial and extended. She states that an avian flu pandemic would lead to considerable supply and demand effects. Widespread absenteeism and trade disruption would dominate the supply-side effect, and social distancing and fear would initially increase the demand for essentials such as non-perishable food, water, medical supplies and health-care services, but reduce the demand for virtually everything else.
Global health-care systems would be running beyond surge capacity. Shortages of key medical equipment, supplies and trained personnel would be likely. And we could suffer prolonged outages of power and utilities and disruptions in government services. Preparation is the key to managing such debilitation, says Dr. Cooper.
"Government, business, individuals and public health offices must further refine and develop continuity and preparedness plans and test and retest these plans as well as revise them as the situation changes," she urges.
Dr. Cooper explains that global economic interdependencies and the importance of China in commodity markets and in exports of low-priced goods increase the potential for economic disruption from a human pandemic. So does the prodigious volume of international trade and travel. Supply chains are now global and inventories are managed on a just-in-time basis. Dr. Cooper suggests that the meaningful economic slowdown in Asia that would result from pandemic would markedly reduce the demand for commodities and industrial materials, driving prices downward. This would have a particularly negative impact on commodity-producing countries like Canada.
People cannot contract H5N1 by eating fully cooked chicken and poultry products. Nevertheless, according to Dr. Cooper, the poultry industry is already taking a big hit, especially in Europe. Knock-on effects will manifest for industries including poultry-feed growers, poultry processors, grocers, and restaurants, especially those specializing in chicken. In the US, the US$30 bln poultry industry has already suffered, as exports dropped 28 in December and there are concerns that a steeper drop is forthcoming.
In addition to the poultry industry and its ancillary businesses, immediate losers would be tourism, travel and transport sectors, the hospitality industry, public transportation, life and health insurers, theatres, casinos, sports facilities, spectator sports, religious facilities, convention halls, restaurants, retailers of nonessential goods, and providers of nonessential services or those that could directly spread disease such as dentists and hairdressers.
Dr. Cooper's economic model predicts that a mild pandemic would reduce annual global GDP growth by 2 percentage points from what it would otherwise be. A severe pandemic, similar to the 1918 Spanish flu, would reduce global GDP growth by 6 percentage points (again, from prevailing growth rates). She considers the results to be "low-ball" global estimates as the economic model assumes all countries are impacted equally. Most likely, the number of countries suffering more than the US will probably be larger than the number of countries faring better - but even that is uncertain.
If there were a cytokine storm (as in the severe flu virus of 1918), where the immune system attacks not only the virus but damages internal organs and tissue, pregnant women and 15-to-40 year olds would suffer the highest case fatality rate. Dr. Cooper notes many experts suggest that modern health systems cannot handle acute cases of a cytokine storm today much more effectively than they could in 1918, even in fully equipped and fully staffed modern intensive care units. "The hardest hit group would be the young, most productive and reproductive members of the population," says Dr. Cooper.
This would have a lasting impact by reducing birth rates and aging an already aged population, exacerbating economic underperformance for years to come, and increasing already excessive demands on pensions and the health-care system. No one can accurately predict the characteristics of the particular mutated virus strain that would cause the pandemic or how these characteristics would evolve over time. "It's important to know, though, that even with a severe pandemic, roughly 99 of the world's population would survive, and travel and trade would recommence as economic activity rebounds." concludes Dr. Cooper.
The full report is accessible at: www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/reports/20060313/report.pdf
Good Report, Thanks.
This could be a significant problem. I read that 200,000 people in Italy lost their jobs after H5N1 was reported in birds there. Looks like our chicken exports have already dropped 28%. I feed my (4) dogs baked chicken every day and I've just seen a drop in chicken prices and I expect it to drop more and crater when H5N1 is reported here.
Now, I just saw a report today of Mad-Cow Disease being reported in a cow in Alabama. Look out if we have MCD outbreak too.
Okay.
Will you kindly send me your computer 6-30-2006?
I remember clearer my father storing up stuff in our basement in case of the unimaginable.
I remember him telling us that if anything happen he would come and get us from school.
Mom was a mess that day. She wanted to keep us home from school.
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