Posted on 02/27/2006 10:08:01 AM PST by mathprof
Most polls say a majority of registered voters would vote Democrat if the congressional elections were held today, but a new independent polling analysis now finds that Republicans could lead among people who actually vote.
The CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll reported last week that the Democrats led Republicans among registered voters in the generic congressional survey by 50 percent to 43 percent, a seven-point margin that could give Democrats enough victories to take control of the House, if their supporters participate in November's elections.
But a deeper analysis of these numbers by David W. Moore for the Gallup Poll said, "It is likely many voters will not do so" because turnout among registered voters tends to be lower than that among "likely voters" who say they plan to vote and usually do.
In his analysis, Mr. Moore writes that Gallup's "experience over the past two midterm elections, in 1998 and 2002, suggests that the [registered voters] numbers tend to overstate the Democratic margin by about 10? percentage points."
"Given that Democrats currently lead by seven points, that could mean that among people who will definitely vote, Republicans actually lead by three to four points," he said.
Republican election strategists long have maintained the so-called generic numbers, in which voters are asked which party they will support in the elections, without mentioning a specific candidate, skew in favor of the Democrats.
Mr. Moore's admission about past generic polls of registered voters is rare, coming from a major polling organization, Republican campaign strategists said last week.
"It's an amazing, very rare admission. Republican pollsters have argued for the last couple of decades that the generic congressional polls always overstate the Democrats' participation," said Wes Anderson, a pollster with OnMessage Inc, a Republican polling and media firm.
(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...
Now if we could just get some conservatives.... elected.
AMEN!! One can no longer assume it's one and the same thing.
Or, as is more likely, someone will mail-in their ballots for them.
My theory is that on average Republicans tend to be more civic minded. However, the way that Conservatives stayed home in California thus handing victory to the unions makes me question my own hypothesis.
You mean the sky isn't falling.
THERE IS A DANGER TO THIS:
the trend towards "2-week voting"...in places like Florida, like in 2004, we now have a week or two where the deadbeats can take their sweet time to come vote...absentee voting used to require someone to take the time to come down and vote, but now there is a huge two week window for the 'rats to get their pathetic voters in busloads to come to the polls.
That huge window ought to be closed.
He who pays the piper calls the tune.Pollsters are not stupid. If a pollster returns results his client does not want to hear, the client will get another pollster.
The only time polls get accurate is at election time. The pollsters dare not give fudged data right before an election, or the election will prove them wrong.
You will often notice that pollsters tell us that the voters changed or made up their minds in the final days or hours before the election. That is not my experience. But Pollsters have to explain how they had it going one way and then have results change a lot in the final days to conform with the acutal votes.
The internal polls of candidates do not lie. They are also rarely made public. But if you watch what candidates do... it will often tell you what is going on.For example it had been a gentlemans agreement for the 140 years prior to 2000 that presidential candidates do not campaign on election day. Al Gore broke that tradidtion and campaigned on election day 2000. Do you know where he campaigned? You guessed it South Florida.
Everyone in the media knew what Gore did on election day 2000 and why he did it. Yet they were quick to give the state to Gore when they knew quite well it was a state trending Bush and very very close.
Good comments. I had forgotten that al-Gore had campaigned in Fl. on election day. Now that you mention it, I recall that Gore was on the phone to radio talk shows in the Pacific northwest right up to the polls closing on the west coast. He darn-near pulled it off. Scary.
OTOH, I'm worried Bush's unpopularity will be a serious drag across the ticket.
Bush is, however, not on the ballot.
It just goes to show that Bush's "approval" numbers are bogus.
Not approving of one's effort doesn't mean that one doesn't still love the GOP.. or hate the Democrats.
People will always have a difference of opinion regarding approval.
I may say overall that I approve of Bush but don't agree with him on immigration.
Others may say they disapprove of Bush because of his immigration numbers but if faced between McCain or Bush(let alone Kerry or Bush) they will vote for Bush everytime.
"new independent polling analysis"
It appears the MSM pollsters are getting called out. These analyst have no vested interest in what their research concludes.
It doesn't help that the Pubs are not taking her to task in a big way over her absolute hatred of private and charter schools.
In addition the Pubs needed to come out and hang her "tax all services" idea around her neck. Even though the Pubs stopped her, it could be turned into the political liability Hillary's failed government health care idea was in the 94' elections. If there's one thing Arizona is, it's a small business mecca that's rich in service providers.
I wish they'd get on with it.
Put the stamp on it and put it in your on mailbox and the postal guy will pick it up for you. Never have to leave the porch to mail it.
That's what happened in Arizona. Janet Napolitano beat Matt Salmon by 20% points in the weeks leading up to election day. All done by mail in ballot. On election day Matt Salmon mopped the floor with Napolitano and came back to lose by less than 1%.
If it had to be done on election day and absentee ballots had to be sent in on the day of the election, we'd be sitting pretty with a GOP Governor right now. Instead we've got a liberal dem who was buddies with Anita Hill.
I read that the popular sheriff in Phoenix, though nominally Republican, worked frantically against Salmon. Is that true? If so, why?
Why? Because he's as unpredictable as John McCain. So unpredictable that he's now considering running against Napolitano whom he endorsed????
Sheriff Joe is a very egotistical man. He loves to run against the tide. Don't get me wrong, I love that in him when it comes to his hardcore stance on prisoners, but it comes with a lot of baggage.
I've done work in the prisons and it's no picnic in there. They all hate him. That makes most Arizonan's love him.
Yea, I have heard that even some dedicated AZ liberals still vote for that sheriff on the theory that he is "controlling crime" so that they can safely practice their liberalism.
Yep
I did get rid of her. I moved!!
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