Top Ten Most Endangered House Incumbents

Teagan Goddard's Political Wire ^ | February 16, 2006 | Stuart Rothenberg

[fieldmarshaldj]

I wonder if Rothenberg took into account the fact that both the Barrow and Marshall districts were redrawn to undo the Democrat gerrymander, or the likelihood that there will be a landslide for the GOP ticket, which bolsters both Burns & Collins. Under the current lines, obviously both incumbents would be favored.

[AntiGuv]

FWIW, these are my personal rankings of Democratic-held seats.

Toss Up

1 (IL-08) Bean
2 (GA-08) Marshall

Lean Democratic

3 (OH-06) Strickland*
4 (TX-17) Edwards
5 (VT-AL) Sanders (I)*

Likely Democratic

6 (GA-12) Barrow
7 (IA-03) Boswell
8 (LA-03) Melancon
9 (UT-02) Matheson
10 (KS-03) Moore
11 (SC-05) Spratt
12 (CO-03) Salazar

Watch List

13 (WA-02) Larsen
14 (ND-AL) Pomeroy
15 (NY-27) Higgins
16 (HI-02) Case*
17 (AR-02) Snyder**

The open Strickland seat would move to Toss Up or Lean GOP depending on the outcome of the ballot qualification issue.

Snyder is on the list (with two asterisks) because he's reporting $0 raised as of Dec 31, which suggests potential retirement. If Snyder retires, I'd probably move the seat to Toss Up. If he does not, I dunno. It depends on when he decides it costs money to run a campaign, even for an entrenched incumbent. LOL

[fieldmarshaldj]

There's no denying that the 'Rats have benefitted from the costly mistakes of the GOP on L.I. Had Felix Grucci not flamed out in his reelection, he'd still be holding the 1st. The embarrassment of the race in '00 to get a decent successor to Lazio, and the subsequent multi-candidate split in the general enabled Israel's rise. The GOP's problem with the 4th and not fully-funding any challenger to McCarthy is outrageous. If Peter King retires, I worry the GOP similarly screws up with getting a successor.

I also share your frustration with Washington state. What happened to that tidal-wave of sanity that gripped the state in '94 ?

[lonestar]

Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX). The lamestream media has unfairly but successfully turned DeLay into a symbol of all that is wrong with politics. Maybe they're exaggerating his vulnerability at home. He'd comfortably win a two-man race, but with a former GOP Congressman running as an Independent, the conservative vote could be split, which could enable the Democrat to win with a minority.

The candidate likely to win the Dem primary is former congressman Nick Lampson; a bigger crook than DeLay could ever be!

[fieldmarshaldj]

I'd move Melancon (LA-3) up towards the front. Craig Romero is as strong a challenger as he can face. I'd put him ahead of Barrow and definitely a toss-up (again, I need to see Romero's fundraising). I have to admit I detest making these prognostications in the absence of seeing fundraising figures. It's the difference as to try to ascertain whether a challenger/candidate LOOKS good on the surface vs. whether they are viable. BIG difference.

[TC Rider]

Bob Etheridge (NC-2), sitting in a seat far too GOP for a liberal, but has faced no strong challenges since he upset the incumbent one-term GOPer in '96.

Long past time for him to go. I had dealings with this joker back in the early 80s when he was just in the state house. He had voted for some bill that enabled schools in his district to buy computers from my employer.

He then came to the door of our computer store and demanded his free computer. I wish my boss had had the balls to call the SBI right then.

(FWIW, he had enough balls to refuse him his freebie.)

[AntiGuv]

You can keep track of the latest fundraising reports here: Open Secrets. The figures show up about a month after the end of each quarter.

In LA-03, these are the figures as of Dec 31.

Melancon raised: $989,032
Romero raised: $438,888

Melancon Cash on Hand: $880,413
Romero Cash on Hand: $345,809

That is certainly viable on the part of Romero. My own impulse was to rate LA-03 in Lean Dem, but Torie has persuaded me otherwise by pointing out that Louisiana is an extremely incumbent-friendly state, which is true.

My expectation is that the LA-03 race will trend up. I also wonder about what the Katrina effect will be down there.

[Torie]

I don't think the Barrow district became much more GOP. It dumped liberal white Athens (University of Georgia), but became more black (41% voting age). I think Bush's percentage in the new district increased, but not by much (I still think he lost the district, as redrawn, but I could be wrong). The Marshall district is another story. It became more white, and Athens isn't in it. The Bush percentage there moved up materially. That is my recollection.

[Amish]

I think Marshall has been doing the right PR things to hold the seat as a Blue Dog.

I'd swap Spratt for him in the Toss-up category.

[AntiGuv]

Your recollection on the Georgia seats is entirely consistent with my own. We (meaning Torie & I) don't disagree on Barrow & Marshall. In fact, I'd be more inclined to move Barrow down than up, and that's how I think it'll trend.

[AntiGuv]

I think Spratt will trend up the list, but before I move it I want to see more evidence that confirms that a 12-term Dem incumbent is going to be vulnerable in a Dem-favorable year.

[Non-Sequitur]

Dennis Moore (KS-3), always in jeopardy due to it being a GOP district.

I live in Kansas 3rd and I'm here to tell you that I've not heard of a single GOP challenger for Moore in this election. His last opponent, Kris Kobach, lost by 11 and a half points in 2004, such a horrendous margin that he can't be considered a serious challenger anymore. The moderate Republican from 2002, Adam Taff, just got sent to jail for 15 months for messing with his campaign money. Nobody is stepping up yet, nobody has been seriously mentioned, and with Moore's campaign chest time is running short. Look for Kansas Third to remain solidly in the Democrat camp.

[Torie]

I finally found the goods! The Bush percentage went up in the Marshall district from 52% to 58%, and in the Barrow district, from 45% to 48%. The Barrow district does not merit anything more than watch list, unless the Pubbie opponent is credible, and has lots of money. Then I would move it to likely Dem.

[Torie]

Unless of course, Barrow is beaten in the Dem primary by a black. Then it gets more complex and iffy. Is a well financed credible black running against him?

[LdSentinal]

Max Burns is running against Barrow and will be well financed.

And Barrow had to move his residence into his new district. Still, Barrow would be a narrow favorite.

[Robert A Cook PE]

Ronnie Earle is a political hack with a trophy deficient disorder.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Thanks for the link, that helps immensely. Glancing at it, I found a few surprises. Such as lackluster fundraising by Souder & Hostettler in IN. Mollohan in WV is tied with his GOP challenger, Wakim, who apparently is 2/3rds self-funding.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Spratt's challenger is matching well in fund-raising, but how he is polling is another story (which I have no idea).

[fieldmarshaldj]

Indeed, it remains a problem that in KS-3, there are effectively 3 parties, the Democrats, the regular Republicans, and the "Moderate" (liberal) Republicans. Until you can find a candidate who can appeal to both wings of the GOP (good luck there), Moore continues to benefit. You are correct Moore has raised a fortune.

[AntiGuv]

Hey, good find! I've been rather vexed at the absence of comparative pre- and post- redistricting figures for the two Georgia districts.

In light of that, I think the odds of Barrow losing to Burns in what looks to be this year's political landscape are notably lower than I'd thought. Here's my new Dem-seat list. Barrow is at #10.

Toss Up

1 (IL-08) Bean
2 (GA-08) Marshall

Lean Democratic

3 (OH-06) Strickland*
4 (TX-17) Edwards
5 (VT-AL) Sanders (I)*

Likely Democratic

6 (IA-03) Boswell
7 (LA-03) Melancon
8 (UT-02) Matheson
9 (KS-03) Moore
10 (GA-12) Barrow
11 (SC-05) Spratt
12 (CO-03) Salazar

Watch List

13 (WA-02) Larsen
14 (ND-AL) Pomeroy
15 (NY-27) Higgins
16 (HI-02) Case*
17 (AR-02) Snyder**

As for the prospect of a well-financed credible black running against Barrow, no fundraising has been reported from GA-12 to the FEC by anyone except Barrow and Burns. There's been some buzz that Denise Magette might move down from Atlanta to run, for whatever that's worth.