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To: Torie

Hey, good find! I've been rather vexed at the absence of comparative pre- and post- redistricting figures for the two Georgia districts.

In light of that, I think the odds of Barrow losing to Burns in what looks to be this year's political landscape are notably lower than I'd thought. Here's my new Dem-seat list. Barrow is at #10.

Toss Up

1 (IL-08) Bean
2 (GA-08) Marshall

Lean Democratic

3 (OH-06) Strickland*
4 (TX-17) Edwards
5 (VT-AL) Sanders (I)*

Likely Democratic

6 (IA-03) Boswell
7 (LA-03) Melancon
8 (UT-02) Matheson
9 (KS-03) Moore
10 (GA-12) Barrow
11 (SC-05) Spratt
12 (CO-03) Salazar

Watch List

13 (WA-02) Larsen
14 (ND-AL) Pomeroy
15 (NY-27) Higgins
16 (HI-02) Case*
17 (AR-02) Snyder**

As for the prospect of a well-financed credible black running against Barrow, no fundraising has been reported from GA-12 to the FEC by anyone except Barrow and Burns. There's been some buzz that Denise Magette might move down from Atlanta to run, for whatever that's worth.


160 posted on 02/19/2006 3:45:36 PM PST by AntiGuv
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To: AntiGuv

Oh geez, I forgot Burns was running. :( Yet another senior moment, so I agree with your placement.


161 posted on 02/19/2006 3:48:40 PM PST by Torie
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To: AntiGuv

I'd add OH-13 to the watch list.

Sherrod Brown is retiring and while this seat has a strong Democrat lean, the GOP is running the mayor of Lorain which is a Democrat stronghold.


163 posted on 02/19/2006 3:49:31 PM PST by NeoCaveman (If it's (Sherrod) Brown, flush it)
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To: AntiGuv

As I observed above, I'd add Alan Mollohan (WV-1) to the endangered list. He currently trails his GOP challenger with cash-on-hand (and his opponent isn't a gadfly, but a sitting member of the legislature, which was a successful route of ascension for Shelley Moore Capito).

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.asp?cycle=2006&id=WV01


166 posted on 02/19/2006 3:53:32 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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