I wonder if Rothenberg took into account the fact that both the Barrow and Marshall districts were redrawn to undo the Democrat gerrymander, or the likelihood that there will be a landslide for the GOP ticket, which bolsters both Burns & Collins. Under the current lines, obviously both incumbents would be favored.
FWIW, these are my personal rankings of Democratic-held seats.
Toss Up
1 (IL-08) Bean
2 (GA-08) Marshall
Lean Democratic
3 (OH-06) Strickland*
4 (TX-17) Edwards
5 (VT-AL) Sanders (I)*
Likely Democratic
6 (GA-12) Barrow
7 (IA-03) Boswell
8 (LA-03) Melancon
9 (UT-02) Matheson
10 (KS-03) Moore
11 (SC-05) Spratt
12 (CO-03) Salazar
Watch List
13 (WA-02) Larsen
14 (ND-AL) Pomeroy
15 (NY-27) Higgins
16 (HI-02) Case*
17 (AR-02) Snyder**
The open Strickland seat would move to Toss Up or Lean GOP depending on the outcome of the ballot qualification issue.
Snyder is on the list (with two asterisks) because he's reporting $0 raised as of Dec 31, which suggests potential retirement. If Snyder retires, I'd probably move the seat to Toss Up. If he does not, I dunno. It depends on when he decides it costs money to run a campaign, even for an entrenched incumbent. LOL