FWIW, these are my personal rankings of Democratic-held seats.
Toss Up
1 (IL-08) Bean
2 (GA-08) Marshall
Lean Democratic
3 (OH-06) Strickland*
4 (TX-17) Edwards
5 (VT-AL) Sanders (I)*
Likely Democratic
6 (GA-12) Barrow
7 (IA-03) Boswell
8 (LA-03) Melancon
9 (UT-02) Matheson
10 (KS-03) Moore
11 (SC-05) Spratt
12 (CO-03) Salazar
Watch List
13 (WA-02) Larsen
14 (ND-AL) Pomeroy
15 (NY-27) Higgins
16 (HI-02) Case*
17 (AR-02) Snyder**
The open Strickland seat would move to Toss Up or Lean GOP depending on the outcome of the ballot qualification issue.
Snyder is on the list (with two asterisks) because he's reporting $0 raised as of Dec 31, which suggests potential retirement. If Snyder retires, I'd probably move the seat to Toss Up. If he does not, I dunno. It depends on when he decides it costs money to run a campaign, even for an entrenched incumbent. LOL
I'd move Melancon (LA-3) up towards the front. Craig Romero is as strong a challenger as he can face. I'd put him ahead of Barrow and definitely a toss-up (again, I need to see Romero's fundraising). I have to admit I detest making these prognostications in the absence of seeing fundraising figures. It's the difference as to try to ascertain whether a challenger/candidate LOOKS good on the surface vs. whether they are viable. BIG difference.
I think Marshall has been doing the right PR things to hold the seat as a Blue Dog.
I'd swap Spratt for him in the Toss-up category.