Posted on 02/18/2006 4:34:05 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
Writing in Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg gives us his top ten list of most endangered House incumbents. All but one are Republicans.
Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT) Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN) Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL) Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL)
He says it was a tough list to compile. "Many of the incumbents on this list have proven their political mettle before, and in normal circumstances, they wouldn’t be in all that much trouble. Others find themselves in the sort of hot water that should automatically sink them, but because of unique circumstances, they might somehow survive."
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalwire.com ...
I wouldn't be surprised if you're right and wouldn't hesitate to move Lucas back down to Likely GOP. Before that poll I had it down at #25 and would've had it even lower than that if not for all the pundits who who consider it Lean (Cook, Sabato, Rothenberg, CQ). It's really a total mystery to me why a 72 year old Lucas should be competitive in a strong GOP district that he barely held in his last race as an incumbent against the now-incumbent who seems to me a good fit for that district and hasn't done anything that I know of to turn the voters against him.
I should've said, I wouldn't hesitate to move Lucas back down to Likely given the slightest concrete refutation of that poll.
PS. And while I'm at it, I'm also rather mystified by why the Lewis district (KY-02) seems competitive. I just don't understand Kentucky voters is what it comes down to. I don't even much pretend to know what they're gonna do anymore. LOL
The Lewis district is the most GOP in Kentucky. I doubt Kerry carried any precinct in his district. And the Louisville exurban counties in his district just get more and more troglodytes moving in, like Shelby (I think that is the name). Has be been caught in flagrante delicto with a dead boy, and is thus a dead body pedophile? What is the term for one who gets sexual gratification from corpses? I am having a senior moment.
Dead body "homosexual" pedophile. That is what it would take.
A necrophiliac.
I don't know of anything Lewis has done to be vulnerable, or even slightly vexed. So far as I can tell, the seat is being described as competitive because of his opponent's resume: Mike Weaver is a retired Army colonel who served two tours in Vietnam. Moreover, he's reported raising $100,000 after just one month of entering the race, which is at least noteworthy.
But the district seems so firmly GOP, as you noted, that I don't even get why a serious challenger would bother, much less why Lewis might actually lose.
PS. And Mike Weaver's also a state rep. for what little that's worth.
Thanks. A necrophiliac, homosexual pedophile. Such a person should seek therapy is my best advice. It just isn't practical.
In fact, I just talked myself (with your help) into dropping the Lewis district from #32 to #38 (between Porter & Rehberg).
His house seat should go Republican this time around.
Stuart Rothenburg is not a Democratic strategist, nor does he have any affiliation with the Democrats. He's one of the most honest forecasters out there, and in the past two election seasons he's been out front in spring saying "sorry Democrats, the wave you're hyping isn't happening this year."
In New Mexico, Republicans have a shot at winning state Attorney General and Secretary of State.
In the Secretary of State, the GOP nominee is Albuquerque City Councilwoman Vickie Perea, a recent party-switcher.
In the Attorney General race, the likely GOP nominee is former Albuquerque District Attorney Bob Schwarz (unfortunately, he may be a RINO).
The race for state Auditor is still taking shape.
You're right...I got him mixed up with someone else with a vaguely similar name, Stan Greenberg...I was thinking of a passage in Bill Sammon's book on 9/11 where he describes a Democratic strategy meeting on 9/11/2001 with James Carville and Greenberg, and couldn't find my copy of the book to make sure I had the name right.
The problem is, Rothenberg seriously embarrassed himself looking like a Democrat shill with that list. His failure to include more than "1" Democrat top 10 vulnerable House members (when I could name 3 just off the top of my head, Bean, Barrow & Marshall of GA - the latter of which I regard as even MORE vulnerable than Bean) was either sloppy at best, or indicates the man has jumped the shark to the Democrat camp.
Steve Israel represents a districy (NY-2) that was represented from the 1970s-1990s by ultra-liberal Thomas "Not that there's anything wrong with it!" Downey. Lots of union members and Jewish Americans in that district make it lean Democratic. True, Lazio held it back in the mid-90s, but that was more of a fluke than anything else.
Tim Bishop (NY-1) would be the most vulnerable were we to get a strong candidate with good financial backing. The limo liberals in the Hamptons vote in Manhattan, and the "hired help" in Riverhead don't vote at all. Granted, this was the district of conservative Democrat Otis Pike back in the 1960s, but otherwise should be a GOP district. While it is true that Brookhaven Town (largest town in the district) is now controlled by the Dems, that is due more to local issues than any demographic changes.
In Washington (from where I am typing) Larsen and Inslee would be vulnerable had the State Senate in Washington (under Republican control from 2000-2002) hadn't been rolled over by Gary Locke in the redistricting process. This effectively split Snohomish County, which is the fastest growing county in the state, and one which is finally turning Republican (lots of middle to high income families with kids from out of state). If Snohomish had been combined with Skagit into a single district, it would be at least 55% GOP, with the numbers climbing every year.
Instead, we have a situation where the GOP vote in north Snohomish and Skagit are outvoted by the aging Hippies in Whatcom County/Bellingham City, allowing Larsen to hold the seat. Likewise, Inslee gets enough votes from the liberals in North King County, Bainbridge Island, and Everett to negate the Republican votes in southern and central Snohomish.
Rothenberg has been writing about his beliefs about partisan waves and about how when there is a big change in seats, they all fall in one direction. His list fits that point of view.
You're right about Marshall, but know that your call on Barrow is controversial at best; the district is still quite blue for a southern district, a region where Bush ran ahead of the generic Republican ticket for Congress, because Marshall (however he votes) does not come across as John Kerry.
You have your speculation as to his motives, and I have mine. I think Rothenberg has built his career to date on a certain level of integrity and skepticism of party hype, so I think he believes what he wrote.
There was a poll released recently, most likely partisan, showing Collins far behind Marshall. I don't take that kind of poll at face value but I can see how it could infludence his call in the absence of any other factors beyond looking at Bush-Kerry numbers and the racial breakdown of the district.
Yes, my second paragraph switches from Barrow to Marshall in mid-stream.
He did not seemed too concerned about the prospects of the Republican losing the House or Senate.
I would take his view long before anyone else's out there.
The man is a walking encyclopedia of elections.
Whenever I ask why Davis is vulnerable (or why others think he is), they claim that Davis is not very popular in his district, citing his comments in the wake of the Schidmt-Murtha fracas. Frankly, I don't get it. That might make the Dems in the rural areas mad, but it shouldn't affect him in the suburbs.
IMHO, Barrow is certainly not more vulnerable than any of the ten on that list. The only three Democrat incumbents that one could make a serious argument for are Bean, Marshall, and Chet Edwards.
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