I wouldn't be surprised if you're right and wouldn't hesitate to move Lucas back down to Likely GOP. Before that poll I had it down at #25 and would've had it even lower than that if not for all the pundits who who consider it Lean (Cook, Sabato, Rothenberg, CQ). It's really a total mystery to me why a 72 year old Lucas should be competitive in a strong GOP district that he barely held in his last race as an incumbent against the now-incumbent who seems to me a good fit for that district and hasn't done anything that I know of to turn the voters against him.
Whenever I ask why Davis is vulnerable (or why others think he is), they claim that Davis is not very popular in his district, citing his comments in the wake of the Schidmt-Murtha fracas. Frankly, I don't get it. That might make the Dems in the rural areas mad, but it shouldn't affect him in the suburbs.