Posted on 02/12/2006 10:14:08 AM PST by LdSentinal
MONTGOMERY -- Alabama Gov. Bob Riley has opened a 2-to-1 lead over ousted Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore in the race for the Republican Party's gubernatorial nomination later this year, the results of a new statewide poll suggest.
The Mobile Register-University of South Alabama survey of registered likely GOP primary voters showed Riley with 56 percent to Moore's 28 percent, a wider margin than similar Register-USA polls have reflected in the past and the first time the governor has cracked the all-important 50-percent barrier.
The results continue Riley's upward trend since 2003, when voters drubbed his billion-dollar tax plan at the ballot box, just as Moore's political star was burning arguably at its brightest over his efforts to display the Ten Commandments in the state judicial building.
Nearly three years later, Riley continues to have difficulty navigating the Democratically-controlled Legislature. But he's afforded the election-year advantage of presiding over a bustling economy that has yielded record-low unemployment and record-high tax revenues for public education. Riley has also out-raised Moore 8-to-1, according to the two men's campaign finance disclosures released last month.
"Unless Riley really messes up something -- given relatively good economic times, given the lack of scandal, given the fact that all of the tax business is in the past -- it's hard for me to imagine how Riley could blow it," said USA political scientist Keith Nicholls, who directed the poll. Nicholls, however, did add the caveat that "it's still early" and that Moore could become increasingly competitive if he can raise more money.
The Riley campaign declined comment on the results.
Moore spokesman J. Holland said the former chief justice is receiving a "tremendous" response from Alabamians. "We are confident," he said. "It's not about polls and politics -- it's about principle and people. The people of this state will send a clear message to the politicians and special interests in Montgomery."
Party primaries are June 6, with the general election to follow in November. The Riley-Moore winner will face the Democratic nominee, likely to be either Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley or former Gov. Don Siegelman.
The Register-USA survey, conducted Feb. 4-8, asked for the preferences of 400 registered Alabama voters who said they are likely to vote in the Republican primary. The results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
A similar Register-USA poll in October of last year showed Riley with a 44-25 lead over the former chief justice. In January 2005, Moore led the governor 43-35 in what was then a hypothetical matchup. Both of those previous polls also queried only likely Republican primary voters. Riley's gain in the latest poll is linked largely with a drop in undecided voters, which made up 31 percent of the respondents in October, but just 16 percent in the most recent sampling. Perhaps the greatest significance of the drop in undecided voters is that it apparently has pushed Riley beyond the benchmark of 50 percent. In public opinion polling, incumbents want to stay above that mark.
"The undecideds dropped considerably, and Riley appears to have gotten nearly all of them," Nicholls explained.
The governor also led in nearly all income levels and educational levels. The greater the income level, the larger Riley's lead over Moore. For example, among respondents who reported an annual household income of less than $30,000, Riley held a 50-34 percent advantage. Those in the top income bracket -- annual household income more than $60,000 -- Riley's lead was 65-22 percent.
There is one word for anyone who votes for lying, tax rising Riley: Suckers!
Good, let us all hope it holds though the primary.
Were I a resident of Alabama, I'd definitely throw my weight behind Roy Moore.
There is one word for anyone who votes for the grandstanding, demagoguing, constitution-ignoring hypocrite Roy Moore: LOSER. Alabama's tried nullification enough in the past to know it's a losing proposition. Unfortunately for Moore, Alabama's changed quite a bit since the 1960s.
Yeah. Moore has no chance of winning. You'd think the GOP would be able to come up with a better choice, though.
I'm from Alabama, and I'm voting for Riley because aside from his tax hike insanity, that rightfully got creamed at the polls, IMHO he's actually been a pretty good governor. If Moore were to be elected ... and I think this will be closer than the poll indicates, there's always a "hidden" vote for him from people who for whatever reason won't admit it to pollsters ... it's going to be back to Quixote tilting with windmills over things that aren't going to change.
GOOD!!!!!!!!
I don't think it's a matter of ignoring the Constitution here. The First Amendment has been so incredibly perverted in the last 50 years that I honestly think Moore is probably in the right here. Where he is wrong (or some would say heroic--I lean more towards wrong) is that he ignored a higher authority telling him that he was wrong.
Didn't Riley immediately bring out the tax cuts after his tax hike was soundly defeated by voters?
How is lucy stacking up for the primary? Think she will win it?
I think she'll win. People are just tired of Siegelman. He's been running for stuff for nearly 30 years. Regardless of his legal troubles, he's just been around too long.
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