Posted on 02/06/2006 12:35:32 PM PST by new yorker 77
It would be easy, with Samuel Alito now on the Supreme Court, to predict that if another seat comes open before President Bush leaves office the ensuing confirmation battle would be one for the record books.
After all, if Bush did fill a third seat, he essentially would be able to remake the nation's highest court in his own image.
However, given what we have learned from the confirmation battles over John Roberts and Alito, the idea that Ted Kennedy & Co. might be able to stop another Bush nominee who is similar to those two men might well be more rhetoric than reality.
Last year, before the death of Chief Justice William Rehnquist and the retirement of Sandra Day O'Connor, both Roberts and Alito fit the profile of the type of judge who conventional wisdom held would inspire a Democratic battle to the death.
Democratic interest groups had boasted they would never allow Bush to put that kind of justice on the court, much less two of them, or would at the least wage a scorched earth campaign that made the president pay a heavy political price.
That is because with Alito joining Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas and Roberts on the court, that provides four strongly conservative votes. The swing member is now Anthony Kennedy, whom most Democrats have always thought was less inclined toward their legal philosophy than O'Connor, whom Alito replaced.
But should another vacancy occur, it is hard to look at the past six months of Supreme Court politics and conclude that even if Bush gets to appoint what would be the fifth vote on the nine-member court, the confirmation fight would turn out differently..
To borrow a phrase from Saddam Hussein, Bush's foes predicted the mother of all battles to stop anyone they considered to be a strict-constructionist conservative on the high court. But they could not deliver.
Bush's opponents could not even muster enough votes to filibuster either man, much less defeat Roberts or Alito on an up-or-down vote.
Candidly, the lessons of the Alito and Roberts confirmations are that Democrats had better either take back control of the Senate this November or get darned close, if they really want to stop the next Bush nominee, should that be in the cards.
And, they had better pray for the health of John Paul Stevens, who is both the most liberal member of the court and its most senior member. He will be 86 in April.
Stevens, who has served on the court for 30 years, spends much of his time at his Florida home. The expectation is that he will wait for a Democratic president before giving up his seat willingly. The court's next most liberal member is Ruth Bader Ginsburg who will be 73 in March and has been treated for colon cancer.
Yet, the 2008 presidential election is almost three years away. If the Democrats were to win back control of the Senate this year - an unlikely but not impossible task - that would change the dynamics of any Supreme Court appointment.
Republicans currently hold 55 of the 100 seats plus the tiebreaker in Vice President Dick Cheney. History teaches they will lose some of those seats in November and current polls show Americans saying they are in the mood for political change.
Absent such a major electoral shift, however, the Alito and Roberts confirmation fights show that Democrats claiming a nominee is out of the judicial mainstream, which was their argument made against both men, doesn't cut it. Neither were opponents cries that by confirming Roberts and Alito senators were endangering the continuation of legal abortion, which was aimed at energizing Democrats and a handful of moderate Republicans.
Thus, should Bush get another Supreme Court appointment and offer a third conservative who passes the competence test, the Democrats will need to find a new strategy, either that or hope for election gains in November.
Peter A. Brown is assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
He can be reached at peter.brown@quinnipiac.edu
"It's ah, going to be ah, a rebuilding ye-ahh!" said the portly, inefficient, isolated, and deluded aging former swimming star.
...like he promised voters he would.
This is BS. Roberts got on easily because he was and is a stealth cnadidate. We STILL don't know how conservative he is. Alito is less steathy but but still not a hardcore conservative. He had a much tougher time and won a narrower majority. The next nominee has the potential to swing the court hard right. Against a true conservative like Janice Brown the Dems will use the exact same playbook that they always have. I predict the next confirmation hearing will make the Clarence Thomas fight look like a tea party.
If Bush replaces Scalia, it won't change the court balance. All Bush has done so far is stop the court from moving left. Imagine if Kerry won right now.
Ironically, what seemed to be a problem a few months ago, the Gang of 14, is what saved Alito.
We have them to thank. The gang will put the brakes on Kennedy with the next nominee as well unless we put up Kenneth Starr or something.
Republicans to lose seats?"Polls show Americans are in the mood for a political change."?What "polls" is the author refering to?
Oh, please Lord, let Bush get another Supreme Court pick and let him/her be in Your likeness.
Rumor has it that Stevens has claimed that since he was appointed under a Republican, he will retire under a Republican. I'm skeptical, but one can always hope.
Why would Scalia want to step downnow? He turns 70 this year which isn't that old for a Supreme Court Justice.
Wouldn't it be funny if Bush had the opportunity to fill TWO more seats -- and liberal ones at that. That is a fight I would like to see.
Appoint Janice Robert Brown
and watch the Democrats male attack her for being against woman's right and racist
Of course they will just take that as stealing elections and winning at all costs, including more vote fraud, and just shoving their agenda down the throats of middle America, or lying about their intentions altogether.
IF Scalia were to step down. Scalia is the 3rd oldest, I thought he was older. He could choose to retire to prevent any chance of a rat naming his successor post 2008. In fact, it might be the safe conservative thing to do.
I been thinking the same thing about Scalia. We are just one heart attack or tragic car accident of the Court being in trouble. If we dont keep the Presedency we might be in trouble. Right now we are just replacing Conservatives really.
"And, they had better pray for the health of John Paul Stevens, who is both the most liberal member of the court and its most senior member."
Who would the liberals pray to? Gaia?
They are Gods unto Themselves. Thus, they are polygamous.
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